2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumThe Big Lesson From 2016 Is That Neither Party Has A Winning Vote Coalition
Donald Trump won the Electoral College by a 306-232 margin, but lost the popular vote by a more than 2 million votes (and still counting) ― more than any previous presidential winner ever has in a split decision. How this happened is a complex story, much more nuanced than most heres why Trump won stories imply.
Almost all of those stories contain a piece of the puzzle, but in order to see the real story you need to consider all of the explanations combined. Neither party has much reason to celebrate the outcome of the 2016 election. Republicans have a demographics problem, and Democrats have a geography problem compounded by turnout issues.
At the state level, the 2016 vote patterns seem to show a sea of red states with blues isolated to the coasts plus Colorado, New Mexico, Minnesota and Illinois. Looking county-by-county, it becomes clear that the divide isnt just coasts vs. flyover territory; its rural-urban. Pockets of blue in the major cities, college towns and a handful of majority-black areas in the South are evident in this view. The New York Times graphic below shows just how little actual land area went to Hillary Clinton at the county level: She won 15 percent of the land to Trumps 85 percent.
Yet declaring the United States a country divided by population density overlooks several trends that are key to understanding Trumps success. The urban-rural split is nothing new; perhaps its more exaggerated in 2016 than before, but weve known for a long time that rural areas are conservative and urban areas are liberal. But if we consider gradations ― not just dividing counties by which candidate a majority of voters selected, but shading by the proportion of Trump and Clinton voters in each county ― the story is far less clear.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/republicans-democrats-vote-coalition_us_583893a1e4b000af95ee2e52?bygy14i
msongs
(67,462 posts)SickOfTheOnePct
(7,290 posts)Thanks for the link.