2014 US Senate Election.

[NPolitics1979]

US Senators strongly favored to win re-election.
AL(Sessions-R)32R
CO(Udall-D)35D
DE(Coons-D)36D
HI(Schatz-D)37D
ID(Risch-R)33R
IL(Durbin-D)38D
KS(Roberts-R)34R
KY(McConnell-R)35R
MA(Markey-D)39D
NM(Udall-D) 40D
OK(Inhofe-R)36R
OR(Merkley-D)41D
RI(Reed-D)42D
SC(Graham-R)37R
SC(Scott-R)38R
TN(Alexander-R)39R
TX(Cornyn-R)40R
VA(Warner-D)43D
WY(Enzi-R)41R
US Senators slightly favored to win re-election.
AK(Begich-D)44D
AR(Pryor-D)45D
LA(Landrieu-D)46D
MN(Franken-D)47D
MT(Baucus-D) 48D
NH(Shaheen-D) 49D
NC(Hagan-D) 50D
Open Seats -likely retention.
IA(Braley-D) 51D
MI(Peters-D) 52D
NE(Heineman-R) 42R
NJ(Booker-D)53D
Open Seats likely takeover.
SD(Rounds-R) 43R
WV(Capito-R) 44R

Seats to be watched.
GA- if Barrow-D runs and Broun-R opens his mouth.
ME- Collins-R retires or loses in the GOP primary.
MS- Cochran retires, Democrats nominate Gene Taylor.

[davidpdx]

1. If Merkley doesn't win the Oregon Senate race with at least 60% of the vote

I'll pull down my pants and run around city hall.

disclaimer: For as many times as I've said that, I've actually never done it.

[NPolitics1979]

2. Merkley's re-election numbers will be similar to Wyden's re-election numbers.

Wyden-D narrowly defeated Gordon Smith-R in 1996 Special to replace Packwood-R. Wyden-D was re-elected with over 60 percent in 1998 and 2004. He recieved over 55% of the popular vote in 2010.
Merkley-D unseated Smith-R in 2008 by a narrow margin. Merkley-D will win re-election with over 55 percent of the popular but under 60 percent of the popular vote. I would say 2020 will be the year Merkley-D breaks 60%.

[davidpdx]

3. I think you are right

Whomever the Republican nominee is will likely pull close to 45% of the vote. I think it depends also if they come up with a creditable candidate or not. Most of Eastern Oregon will vote for the Republican by default. Oregon Republicans aren't known for having a deep bench of decent candidates. The only real close race was for governor in 2010 where Chris Dudley lost by only 1.5 percent.

[Bjorn Against]

4. McConnell should be moved off the strongly favored list

McConnell is vulnerable, especially if Ashley Judd runs against him. He may put up a fight, but he is not very popular and he can be defeated.