GOP members of Congress have completely safe districts, that is a problem

[UCmeNdc]

When you get the GOP members off the talking points you come to a simple conclusion: They don't face consequences for taking these hardline positions. When you hear members talk candidly about their biggest victory, it wasn’t winning the House in 2010. It was winning the state legislatures in 2010 because they were able to redraw their districts so they had many more conservative voters. The members get heat from the press but they don't get heat from back home.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/10/01/why-boehner-doesnt-just-ditch-the-right/

[bigdarryl]

1. Allan West had a safe district also

Look where he is now.They keep telling that BULLSHIT so we are disparded and not vote in 2014

[Loudly]

2. The heat they need to feel is from articulate, motivated Democratic challengers.

It's tough out there.

[FarPoint]

3. They out-smarted us on this one...

Damn! It sure does hurt. I don't see us fixing this gerymandering anytime soo either.

[apnu]

5. They didn't out smart us.

Democratic leadership was a sleep at the wheel in a census year and took for granted the electorate of 2008.

That's the Democratic Party screwing the pooch, the Republicans were just smart enough to recognize a sleeping fool when they see one. A bunch around here and other places where clamoring about that and it fell on deaf ears.

The end result is we'll have to suffer the teabaggers till 2020.


(edited for a typo)

[FarPoint]

6. Yes...that is a fact...

[Scuba]

11. Your critique of the Democratic leadership is generous. One could easily argue ....

... that they were working against their constituents, not merely asleep.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

12. Well, it that's true

there's not much hope for us then, right? Might as well just give up and go home?

[Scuba]

14. Disagree. We need to remake the Party from the bottom up.

[beerandjesus]

4. The DCCC needs to spend some money in these districts

Moving to South Carolina from California, I've been really struck by the sorry state of the Democratic party here. There are lots of motivated people working hard and doing great things, but it's obvious that this state has been neglected by the national party for a long time.

[tabbycat31]

8. Personally I think the state and local Democratic parties need to rebuild

[beerandjesus]

9. You're absolutely right, but the national Democrats have ignored the South for too long

Remember Howard Dean's 50-state strategy?

[tabbycat31]

10. Last time I checked the DCCC spent big on Elizabeth Colbert Busch

[beerandjesus]

17. They did. But what we're lacking is infrastructure

...so that in a race like ECB's, we're not building everything from the ground up.

Again, I'm not saying there's nothing here, only that we need an ongoing presence here. We should be trying to compete everywhere, including "safe" Republican districts.

[tabbycat31]

19. You are preaching to the choir there

I've worked for 3 Democratic campaigns and 2 IE campaigns and every time I hit the ground I feel that I start from scratch.

I try to leave things so whoever enters my district next can build from where I left off.

[jeff47]

7. They were safe. If the shutdown only lasts a couple more days, they will remain safe

If the shutdown lasts a week or more, then they aren't safe. If it lasts a month, they're in severe danger.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

13. Seems to me that they've put themselves in a box of their own making

If they persist in their insane demands and the shutdown persists, they get hurt and if they cave on funding the government without Obamacare strings attached, then they get hurt.

[jeff47]

15. Yep. They were unable to think about the long-term effects of their plans

which isn't terribly surprising - it seems to be incredibly common on the right, especially among the "businessman" types trying to run the Republican party.

[Jakes Progress]

16. The strategic error

was letting the gerrymandered redistricting stand. Here in Texas, we might vote in a senator or even president, but the way the districts are twisted and arranged by computer planned disenfranchisement, we will continue to vote in asshole congress critters for the next decade.

[JustAnotherGen]

18. I think

Depending on how this goes - Leonard Lance (NJ 7th) has been weakened. We need to try for Districts in Blue States. Ones where we've had an uptick of the 'others'. My husband will be voting for the first time in 2014 (Immigrant) and the number of Indians and black foks (me) and latinos/hispanics have increased here the past few years. Chivukula made a good showing last year. I think it's possible - if we can get the money. Chivikula has solid progressive credentials and voting history in Trenton. He's an immigrant and well let's face it - he looks more like me than he does Lance. Those things could change the results in the eastern part of the district. We are moving out to horse country (town of Flemington) and my husband was speaking with the son of former Republican leader in NJ - and one whose family and Lance's family traded seats in the State government with for years (Republican to Republican). . .

When this guy is jumping to Democratic Party (over 60 wealthy white male) over this TEA Nonsense - anybody is fair game.

[CTyankee]

20. I like the new plan to run strong, attractive women candidates against the tea baggers in those

safe districts. The tea baggers will revert to type and make some stupid sexist remark or remarks and it'll pipss off a lot of women voters in the district. They can't help themselves and this will eventually be their undoing.

However, the Dem Party has gotta do its part and help strengthen Dem Party infrastructure where needed.

[Jim Lane]

21. You have the effect of gerrymandering exactly backwards.

The worst of the RWNJ's in Congress have safe districts because they're from very conservative states, and any sensible districting would produce a lot of RWNJ Representatives.

You say that, in the post-2010 redistricting, the Republicans "were able to redraw their districts so they had many more conservative voters." Actually, no, the way gerrymandering works is that you pack a lot of the opposing party's voters into a few districts, so that your favored party has a slimmer edge but in more districts. For example, if there are 100 voters, evenly split between the two parties, and four representatives, a Republican might aim to create a heavily Democratic district (20D-5R), leaving the three other districts something like 10D-15R each. That's how a 50-50 split in voters gets turned into a 3-1 Republican edge in elections.

It means, though, that a lot of those blue-state Republicans are comparatively vulnerable. Our hope is in their fear of what will happen to them next year. I think this whole mess will end when 17 or more of them decide they just can't take the heat of staying on Cruz control. At that point they'll tell Boehner to allow a House vote on a clean continuing resolution, with the threat that they'll sign a discharge petition if he continues to balk.

[winter is coming]

22. +1. And most of these yahoos don't want to be replaced, even if it's by another Republican.

The longer this shutdown lasts, the more nervous Republicans will become. It's not just that they want their seat to stay GOP, they want to stay in it, so even the Republicans in red states will get antsy.