Meet the woman who could turn Texas purple

[Gothmog]

I met Leticia van de Putte at an event a couple of weeks ago. I think that she may have a better chance than Wendy Davis to win in November in large part because the likely GOP nominee for Lt Governor is a racist nut case. Here is a good CNN article on Leticia http://www.cnn.com/2014/04/22/politics/van-de-putte-texas/index.html?sr=sharebar_twitter

Her Republican opponent could be one of two people who are currently engaged in a runoff for the Republican nomination. One is current Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst. The other is state Sen. Dan Patrick.

While Dewhurst has the support of establishment Republicans, as he did in his unsuccessful primary against now-Sen. Ted Cruz in 2010, he is shifting his policies further to the right, trying to overtake Patrick, the front-runner. Patrick is running to the far right, making immigration and his self-described "illegal invasion" a central tenet of his campaign.

"As a Latino, we're over it," Ramiro Cavazos, president and CEO of the San Antonio Chamber of Commerce, said of the Republican candidates' platforms. "I think it's a very backward approach."

Van de Putte called Patrick's campaign "entertaining" and decried the use of immigration as a wedge issue to divide the Republican base and suppress Democratic, especially Latino, turnout.

At the event I attended, we had two or three Hispanic republicans attend. There are large number of Hispanic republicans who think that Dan Patrick is a racist and that should help Leticia.

[brooklynite]

1. How many votes did Ted Cruz win by two years ago?

(Answer: more than a million).

Not seeing a change this time around.

[Gothmog]

2. A couple of things are different

First, Dan Patrick is a racist idiot who is scaring the Hispanic republicans. The Hispanic population under performs but the GOP has been somewhat successful with Hispanic business community. I was at an event for Leticia a couple of weeks ago and there were two or three Hispanic members of the chamber of commerce were in attendance and they each talked to and gave Letica some checks. These voters normally vote for the GOP but they are scared to death of Dan Patrick and one of my county's democratic officials invited these voters to our meeting with Senator van de Putte. Patrick is doing his best to appeal to the tea party base and in the process he is being somewhat racist.

A good example is that most racial groups seem to resent being accused of bring diseases to the State but Dan Patrick is happy to make these claims about Hispanics http://blog.chron.com/texaspolitics/2014/04/state-health-officials-dispute-patricks-claims-tying-immigration-to-diseases/#22509101=0

As part of a larger story we were working on about Patrick’s immigration claims, we called up the Department of State Health Services to see if there was anything to previous, similar claims that he made in 2006.

Here’s that part of the story, which was cut for space:

In 2006, Patrick claimed that undocumented immigrants were responsible for spreading diseases largely banished from developed countries.

“They are bringing Third World diseases with them,” Patrick said, according to The Texas Observer, listing “tuberculosis, malaria, polio and leprosy.”

State health officials say there’s little basis for those claims.

If Dan Patrick keeps accusing Hispanics of bringing disease to Texas, we may be able to motivate the Hispanic vote for this election. Leticia can use Patrick's comments in ads that should be effective.

Second, Battleground is making a difference. Voter registrations are up and we are building a good data base for November.

Time will tell but I think that Leticia has a better chance of winning compared to Wendy.

[brooklynite]

3. So, Patrick wins by 500,000?

100,000?

50,000?

10,000?

Still don't see enough real anger to shift things.

[Paladin]

4. Your encouragement is duly noted.

[brooklynite]

5. My job isn't to be encouraging...it's to be honest

I do a lot of number crunching and political analysis, because I probably get more requests for support (financial and otherwise) than anyone else here. I think we have prospects to win back Republican State Houses in Pennsylvania, Florida, Michigan and Georgia, and possibly Arizona, Ohio and Wisconsin. Texas, not so much.

[Gothmog]

7. I did not take offense at your numbers

I have heard several different breakdown of the numbers needed for Wendy and Leticia to win at a couple of state party and Battleground events. People are donating a great deal of money to Battleground Texas and Wendy based on these numbers. I do not have access to the powerpoints used at these meetings but I did have Kuffner's analysis available to me which is why I posted those numbers in the post above.

I personally think that both Wendy and Leticia will be competitive in November. I really like Leticia and I think that she has a better chance of winning compared to Wendy due to Dan Patrick. I agree that we need to realistic and I hope that the money that I have contributed to Wendy, Leticia and Battleground will not be wasted. I am also realistic and I think that it is going to be a battle to win in Texas. Even if we are not successful this cycle, Texas will become a blue state at some point. Battleground Texas and these races are simply trying to speed up the process and I am in this fight for the long haul.

[Gothmog]

6. A 700,000 vote shift is both possible and sufficient for Leticia to win

Here is a decent look at the numbers from a blogger at the Houston paper. http://blog.chron.com/kuffsworld/2014/03/no-love-for-dan/

We saw a great example of it in 2010. Bill White received over 387,000 more votes than Democratic Lt. Governor candidate Linda Chavez-Thompson, while Rick Perry collected over 311,000 fewer votes than David Dewhurst. That’s nearly a 700,000 vote swing towards White. People often don’t realize how big the swing was towards White because the Republican tidal wave of 2010 was too big for it to matter, but in a more normal year, 700,000 votes is more than enough to make a difference.

Consider this scenario: Turnout in November is 4.9 million voters – a bit less than 2010, but more than any other off year. The average statewide Republican wins with a 57-43 margin, which I think we can agree is healthy enough to invite plenty of post-electoral scoffing at Battleground Texas and any thought of a blue state in the foreseeable future. Well, in this scenario a Bill White-sized swing is just about what it would take to tip an election, since the average vote tally would be 2.8 million to 2.1 million. If there’s any Republican candidate capable of inspiring that kind of disloyalty among his fellow Republicans, it’s Dan Patrick.

Again, it is early but Dan Patrick could alienate sufficient number of voters to swing the election towards Leticia