E.J. Dionne Jr.: The Hillary difference
There are two majorities in the country right now. One disapproves of President Obama. The other is still inclined to vote Democratic. The key question for the 2014 elections is whether voting this fall and Obamas approval ratings can come into line with the electorates broader Democratic leanings.
There is also this: Obamas difficulties do not appear to be hurting Hillary Clintons chances of winning the presidency in 2016.
These are the findings just below the surface of the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll released last week. Obamas approval rating in the survey was just 41 percent, both with the general public and among registered voters. But in a hypothetical matchup with Jeb Bush for the 2016 presidential race, Clinton was favored by 53 percent of registered voters, Bush by 41 percent.
The roughly one-eighth of voters who disapprove of Obama but nonetheless support Clinton for 2016 may be the most important group in the electorate. If Democratic candidates can collectively manage to corral Clintons share of the national electorate this fall, the party would likely keep control of the Senate and might take over the House of Representatives. The latter outcome is now seen (even by most Democrats) as a virtual impossibility. These Hillary Difference Voters, as well call them, could find themselves the most courted contingent in this years contests.
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