GOP vote lead over Dems in Fla stays fairly static
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Topline:
Democrats won both early voting and vote by mail to cut the overall
GOP lead to 137K, or roughly 5.9%. On this day of the campaign in
2010, the GOP margin was 15.7% or 262k votes. In other words, the
Republican raw vote advantage is approximately 125k votes less than at
this point in the 2010 election.
That 125k margin is approximately twice Governor Scott's margin of
victory in 2010. In other words, if 2010 was held today, Alex Sink
would likely have won at roughly the same margin that elected Governor
Scott in 2010.
The margin is also significantly below the 11.9% advantage that the
GOP had going into 2010, which equated to roughly 271,000 votes. In
that election, the GOP had a total 5% advantage after all votes were
cast. We today are modeling towards a much more balanced electorate.
One other interesting point:
Democrats are voting at a much higher proportion to their 2010 levels
compared to Republicans.
To date: Democrats are 61 percent over their 2010 vote totals, while
GOP is at roughly 23% over their comparable vote totals in 2010. Also,
nearly twice as many NPA voters have cast ballots compared to this
point in 2010, and with virtually every public poll showing Gov Crist
doing well with NPA voters, this trend is good news.
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http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/gop-vote-lead-over-dems-in-fla-stays-fairly-static/2204413
