Early Voting Numbers Look Good for Democrats.

[elleng]

Democratic efforts to turn out the young and nonwhite voters who sat out the 2010 midterm elections appear to be paying off in several Senate battleground states.

More than 20 percent of the nearly three million votes already tabulated in Georgia, North Carolina, Colorado and Iowa have come from people who did not vote in the last midterm election, according to an analysis of early-voting data by The Upshot.

These voters who did not participate in 2010 are far more diverse and Democratic than the voters from four years ago. On average across these states, 39 percent are registered Democrats and 30 percent are registered Republicans. By comparison, registered Republicans outnumbered Democrats in these states by an average of 1 percentage point in 2010.

Continue reading the main story
RELATED COVERAGE

Early Voting Results for Midterms in Colorado, North Carolina and Georgia
The turnout among black voters is particularly encouraging for Democrats, who need strong black turnout to compete in racially polarized states like Georgia and North Carolina. In those two states, black voters so far represent 30 percent of the voters who did not participate in 2010. By comparison, 24 percent of all those who voted in those states in 2010 were black.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/31/upshot/early-voting-election-results-hold-good-news-for-democrats.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0&abt=0002&abg=1

[UCmeNdc]

1. Every little bit helps GOTV!

Join the effort....

http://pol.moveon.org/2014calls/home_shift_signup.html

[riqster]

2. Every vote counts!

[Faux pas]

3. Kickin'

[HockeyMom]

4. While I absolutely want to see Rick Scott GONE,

I do understand that the Senate races are far more important to the country than one Governorship.

[elleng]

5. Yes and governorships important for effects on voting rights in the states.

We NEED both!

[progressoid]

6. In this poll, we are leading in early voting in IA.

In a poll released Wednesday by the Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group, Rep, Bruce Braley (D-IA) holds a commanding lead with early voters in Iowa’s open US Senate race... http://www.politicususa.com/2014/10/29/democrat-bruce-braley-whopping-15-points-early-voters-iowa-senate-race.html

The poll we just completed with a representative sample of 802 Iowa voters is consistent with the findings of polls by CBS News/New York Times and Loras College that the race between Bruce Braley and Joni Ernst is a dead heat. Among those who either have already voted or are likely to vote, 47% are for Bruce Braley and 47% are for Joni Ernst. The remaining respondents either express a reference for someone else or decline to state a preference.

Bruce Braley 46
Bruce Braley (lean) 1
Joni Ernst 45
Joni Ernst (lean) 2
Other 1
Not sure/refused 5

Twenty-eight percent of respondents report that they have already voted; of those, 54% report they voted for Braley and 39% report they voted for Ernst. The party registration of those who have already voted is 41% Democrat and 40% Republican, and Braley leads in the votes already cast because of a distinct advantage with registered independents.

The party registration of the sample overall is 35% Democrat and 39% Republican. Among voters who are not registered in either party, Braley leads overall by 51% to 41%.

The interviews for this survey were conducted by telephone, including both landlines and cell phones, between October 25 and October 27, 2014.

http://b.3cdn.net/braley/5d5d6eb65a20d13127_lbm6b5bfe.pdf

[elleng]

7. I sure hope so!

Just asked my brother, who is visiting from Iowa, and he said "I don't want to think about it."

[progressoid]

8. I know the feeling.

I'm going to be working no where near a TV on Tuesday so I'll find out at the end of the day how it goes.

[Maedhros]

9. Report from Oregon

Governor John Kitzhaber (D) continues to fend off challenger Dennis Richardson (R), despite a deluge of ginned-up controversy relating to the allegedly-checkered past of Kitzhaber's girlfriend. Average of polls: Kitzhaber 47.7% Richardson 40.0%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/governor/or/oregon_governor_richardson_vs_kitzhaber-4999.html

Recent projections give Senator Jeff Merkeley (D) a cushy lead over challenger Monica Wehby (R). Average of polls: Merkeley 51%, Wehby 33%. This despite an Oregonian editorial non-endorsement for either candidate, which cited Merkelely as "too far Left" and pretty much called out Wehby's campaign as a dumpster fire.
http://www.electionprojection.com/2014-elections/oregon-senate-election.php

Congressman Earl Blumenauer (D) is picked by just about everyone to beat rival James Buchal (R), but I couldn't find any poll numbers. He's that much of a lock, nobody is interested in spending money to find out by how much.

[love_katz]

11. Keeping my fingers crossed for Oregon.

Go Democrats!

[stevenleser]

10. Excellent, k&R nt