MONTHLY ELECTORAL COLLEGE GUESTIMATE
Hi folks I've said that just for shits and giggles I would do an EC estimate once a month this will be my third one. I am only doing the EC and not the popular because I don't give a shit about the popular vote that's not gonna reelect Obama. Theoretically Obama could win by one vote in the most populated states and lose every other vote elsewhere and still win...so here goes my picks for the EC (Please argue with me if you diagree)
Obama Absolute WA 12 OR 7 CA 55 NM 5 HI 4 ME 4 VT 3 MA 11 RI 4 CT 7 NY 29 PA 21 NJ 13
MY 10 DC 3 MN 10 IL 20 MI 17 WI 10 IA 6 NV 6 VA 13 NH 4 Total 274 EV
Toss AZ 11 OH 20 FL 29 possibly MT 3 total 63 EV
Romney States (I'll lump them together because I don't like to name them: 201 EV)
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If Romney wins all four of those states and wins all of the mccain states he gets 266. That includes the 1 vote from NE. But if Obama holds swing states like NH,CO,NM,NV,WI,IA,PA, and MI then he wins. I do not think Romney will win all five of those states, but it is possible. As for your scenario I think is reasonable. Of the three southern states that Obama won I think VA is his best shot. As for your tossups I think MT will go for Romney because of the Mormon population. AZ we have a shot, but again the mormons will come out there. we shall see.
... but if everything keeps on track, I think this is what we'll see in November:
I am tempted to add Tennessee to President Obama's landslide, but I feel like I'm out on a limb with Georgia and SC, anyway. At this point, I don't think the newest round of Jim Crow voting laws will even begin to counteract the lack of Republican interest across the nation.
I feel this confident because we have yet to see the legislative ass-kicking that Senate Democrats have planned for this summer, which I think is going to force Republicans to hit so many Americans straight in the wallet that many conservative voters will realize they can pay themselves and save face just by staying home.
Furthermore, I see the way the press is soft-pedaling this election in exactly the same way that they did in 1996, when Bill Clinton's reelection was written on the wall even before Dole secured his own nomination. They did a good job of making it look closer than it actually was for months, and they'll do it again this time. And if it's not close enough to steal, there is a much higher risk in trying to steal it, so I expect to see major Democratic surges in places where I think vote-rigging has been happening for the past twelve years.
The President's strategy has long since turned to growing Congressional coattails and generating interest in the Democratic platform as a whole, which I think is actually going to increase the margin by which he wins his own election. That's why I'm willing to pitch a map that looks ridiculous today. Because everything is lined up for the biggest stomping in at least two decades.
