Elon Poll: Looking ahead to 2016, N.C. favors Clinton over Bush

[DemocratSinceBirth]

In a hypothetical 2016 matchup between two of the biggest names in American politics, Hillary Clinton is the current favorite to win North Carolina over Jeb Bush in a presidential race that many respondents in the latest Elon University Poll said they would like to see.

Forty-six percent of registered voters said they would vote for Clinton, the Democratic former U.S. secretary of state and wife to former president Bill Clinton, over Jeb Bush, a former Republican governor of Florida and brother to former president George W. Bush, as well as son of former president George H.W. Bush.

Just 40 percent of registered voters supported Bush in the hypothetical matchup, with 11 percent of registered voters indicating someone else.


http://www.elon.edu/E-Net/Article/109015

[BlueCaliDem]

1. Poll after poll after poll suggest that Secretary Clinton is our best hope to keep the WH.

I can only hope she'll listen to Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders should she decide to run. And I hope she'll ask Secretary Castro to be her VP running mate. I don't want another Bush in the White House.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. If she's carrying NC she's carrying FL and VA as well as those states are marginally more Democratic

Game over for the Repugnicants!

[BlueCaliDem]

3. Looks good to me! And should she choose Secretary Castro, she might even carry Texas!

That's 38 electoral votes!

The demographics in Texas favor the Democratic Party (Latinos nearly equal Whites in Texas, and could very well outnumber Whites by 2016) and with Julian Castro (Stanford and Harvard educated - speaks fluent Spanish, is Mexican-American raised in a single-parent home - what's not to like?) on the ticket, Latinos will stumble over themselves to come out en masse to vote!

Wouldn't that be sweet?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. Even making Repugnicants seriously contest Texas benefits us./NT

[BlueCaliDem]

7. If we could just win North Carolina, that would be a HUGE victory in my book.

Although it's trending blue, it's still hard for Democrats to win. But dayum! I hope we do, DSB. It would be as sweet as winning Texas for our country and for our future.

[Agnosticsherbet]

4. North Carolina has been slowly trending toward blue.

Last edited Tue Feb 24, 2015, 06:04 PM - Edit history (1)

From 1996 to 2004 Democrats never took more than 44% of the vote.

Obama won NC in 2008.

Romney won it by 2% in 2012.

But it is too early in the process for this to be predictive.

It may be more about Bush's substantial negatives. Teapartiers don't like him because he is another liberal Bush. Democrats don't like him because he is George W. Bush by another name.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. I don't believe early polls are dispositive.

That being said they are more encouraging than if we were losing in them.

[Agnosticsherbet]

8. Early polls are a snapshot of a moment.

If you trace the polls through the entire 2012 race, the majority of the time the Democrats were leading.

It is nice to see the D's in the win column in this poll selfie.

[NPolitics1979]

9. Hillary has secured 270 plus electoral votes.

CA-55
NY-29(84)
IL-20(104)
PA-20(124)
MI-16(140)
NJ-14(154)
WA-12(166)
MA-11(177)
MD-10(187)
MN-10(197)
WI-10(207)
CT-7(214)
OR-7(221)
NM-5(226)
HI-4(230)
ME-4(234)
NH-4(238)
RI-4(242)
DE-(245)
DC-(248)
VT-(251)
Hillary just needs to win
FL-29(280)
OH-18 and NE-2CD(270)
NC-15 and (NV-6 or IA-6)(272)
VA-13 and (NV-6 or IA-6)(270)
CO-9,NV-6 and IA-6(272ev)

[Persondem]

10. Even if it's early, nice to see NC showing some common sense

We got it right in 2008 but have been backsliding since then.