Today's POTUS forecast: Obama 291.8 electoral votes (+2.3), Romney 246.2 (-2.3)

[Tx4obama]

Nate Silver ?@fivethirtyeight

Today's POTUS forecast: Obama 291.8 electoral votes (+2.3), Romney 246.2 (-2.3). http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com

https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/status/211246572112064513

[freshwest]

1. Good, but still too close. Spooky to think the Bain Vampire would get that many.

Nice though, to see some RL statistics.

[BlueToTheBone]

5. I think it shows the depth of fear in this country.

Fear of lack, fear of other, fear of life, fear of death. And when sentient beings get scared, they react in terrible ways. Humans use racism, misogyny, homophobia, etc.

[SoutherDem]

2. CNN and USAToday both give him less

CNN 247
USAToday 196

Both are leaving out toss ups.

I have to wonder if these forecasts are politically influenced. While I love to see those who give Obama the win, I would prefer to see those who are attempting to be unbiased.

[Marzupialis]

3. For Obama, "160 to 390 electoral votes are plausible" Silver said

No shit, Nate. Nate Silver knows how to not be able to be wrong in his analysis.

[flamingdem]

8. He nailed the Walker win

and at the same time predicted an Obama win - but I don't like that 160, wtf?

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

4. That's way too fucking close!!

[Laura PourMeADrink]

6. Iwas JUST looking at this. But isn't it PLUS 9.3 not 2.3

[Tx4obama]

10. The 2.3 number was the newest update/change. The other number was total from June 1st n/t

[Laura PourMeADrink]

11. thanks for clarifying. What do you think an adverse SC decision will do to

his numbers? If the whole law is struck down, it may work to his advantage, IMHO. Ironically, if
it is it will hurt millions of people

[Laura PourMeADrink]

7. How do you get "very slight" chance when O has 62% R has 37% probability?? nt

[former9thward]

9. Statistically a 62% chance this far out is not high at all.

That's where the "very slight" comes from. If O was drawing 62% of the vote this far out it would be about a 95% chance.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

12. wow..he's nose-dived on Intrade...down to 53% probability - was like 57-62 % range nt