Can you say "outlier"?

[brooklynite]

Remember all the chatter about this week's Quinnipiac poll showing Hillary Clinton losing to Jeb Bush (by one whole point)? Well, take a look at the Marist Poll taken at the same time:

Clinton: 49% (+6)
Bush: 43%

And in case you're inclined to believe that THIS is an outlier:

Quinnipiac 7/23 - 7/28 Bush +1
McClatchy/Marist 7/23 - 7/28 Clinton +6
CNN/Opinion Research 7/22 - 7/25 Clinton +5
PPP (D) 7/20 - 7/21 Clinton +5
ABC News/Wash Post 7/16 - 7/19 Clinton +6
USA Today/Suffolk 7/9 - 7/12 Clinton +4

Thank you for your kind attention.

[misterhighwasted]

1. Thanks. just as we expected.

[Scuba]

2. Isn't she fabulous? I mean, just look at this! How could she be more qualified?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10026507869

[sheshe2]

6. Just change the she to he.

"Isn't she fabulous? I mean, just look at this! How could she be more qualified?"

192 recs 126 comments.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12803150#top

[DanTex]

9. Nicely done.

[sheshe2]

10. Thank you kind sir.

They posted on it too, I did not check, yet I am sure it was rec'ed.

[zappaman]

11. Oh yes it was rec'ed!

[sheshe2]

12. Hey zappaman!

[zappaman]

14. I love hypocrisy.

Well done.

[NCTraveler]

41. That really is one of the most insightful posts of the day.

It really says more than many here would like to admit. So simple yet it shows the mindset many of us have working against us on such a subconscious level. Many women don't even make that connection. Thank you.

[George II]

17. What does that have to do with her leading in just about every poll just about everywhere?

[freshwest]

27. A secret admirer has come forth. Look to see all HRC fans get Valentines next year from Bernie. n/t

[Iliyah]

3. K & R

Let some on DU tell it with numerous threads - HRC trails every single GOP Presidential Candidate.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. Still no answer from quinnipiac to my query:

xxxxxxxxxxxx <[e-mail]>
6:52 AM (0 minutes ago)

to pollinginstitu.
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Brian xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx <[e-mail]>
Date: Thu, Jul 30, 2015 at 6:46 AM
Subject: Demographics
To: xxxxxxxxxxxxxx <[e-mail]>

Good morning,


I was looking at the demographics for your current national poll :

RACE White 75% Black 11 Hispanic 7 Other/DK/NA 7

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/us/us07302015_demos_U645de.pdf

According to exit polls from the Roper Center for the 2012 presidential election the demographics were:

RACE White 72% African American 13 Hispanic 10 Asian 3 Other 2

http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-2012/

Given the fact that the general presidential electorate has become more heterogeneous with every presidential election in the modern era with the the exception of 1992 where it was similar to the one that preceded it, are you suggesting this electorate will be more homogeneous?

[ericson00]

39. Quinnipiac is a 3rd rate party school simply seeking more attention:

I mean making waves with polls that hurt Hillary, and thus the press loves to tout, is a great way to get people to hear of QU, send applications, and go.

[Sheepshank]

5. and they thrown everything at her but the kitchen sink

I think sinks will be flying soon.

She has not yet thrown anything juicy or significant at them...they will have a schooling they will not soon forget.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. It is amazing to be polling so well in the midst of a shit storm.

I can't wait for the G E to start and Team Clinton starts throwing the shit back...The Rethuglicans will learn, again, that while it's fun to sling shit at folks , it's not so fun when they start slinging the shit back.

I want to know about Jeb's private server and why there is a gap in released e-mails that coincide with the purloined 2000 election and why Marco Rubio used a party credit card for home repairs, for starters.

"They have awoke a sleeping giant and filled her with a terrible resolve."

[jeff47]

8. Can you say "margin of error"?

Oh wait, that would be all math-y and stuff. Carry on.

[Godhumor]

13. Can you say composite polling?

She is +5 or +6 across a series of differentiated polls that occurred in the same general time frame. Mathy-wise, that means she is probably +5 or +6 vs Bush.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. Quinn probably tweaked their model to make HRC look bad.

HRC losing is a better story than HRC enjoys a small but durable lead over her Republican challengers. I am glad Marist is working with NBC to drown out the Q agenda driven polls.

[Aerows]

35. The "durable lead"

is getting lessened one house party at a time.

Have 100,000 people shown up to hear her message yet?

Because 100,000 people showed up to hear Sen. Sanders. That is both verifiable and informative data.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

36. I was referring to Hillary's lead over her GOP opponents...

I was referring to Hillary's lead over her GOP opponents but if you believe a forty point lead in aggregate polling against the independent senator from Vermont:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary

is of no moment there is nothing I can do to disabuse you of that notion.

[Adrahil]

19. Yeah, why don't you explain it to us nitwits.

I mean, I have an engineering degree, but I can't feguur out dat dere staystistics stuff. It's hard!

Can you explain the consistent lead in numerous polls? It's amazing how so many show her on that end of the error (well, outside really).

I mean the margin of error is 4.6%, so even if the error was maximized, she's out of margin in every match-up.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. The Law Of Large Numbers suggest if the election was held tomorrow she would win.

eom

[sheshe2]

16. KnR~ brooklynite.

[Adrahil]

18. Yup. I can.

This was expected after looking at the Quinnipiac sample composition.

[Cha]

20. That's more like it! thank you, brooklynite~

[freshwest]

21. IDK what all that means, but PPP is reputedly the best poll. Bernie to his creditt, still says he

will not pull a third party stunt like Nader if he doesn't win the race for the nomination. I believe him.

He says denying the GOP another term is essential. Despite all the inneundoes at Clinton, he says she is better than GOP or third party. I hope his view sways the disaffected if he doesn't win.

[cherokeeprogressive]

23. LOL at least ONE DUer doesn't think Quinnipiac is an outlier... quotes EVERY one that puts Hillary ^

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. Are you questioning the original poster's veracity?

. LOL at least ONE DUer doesn't think Quinnipiac is an outlier... quotes EVERY one that puts Hillary ^

Are you questioning the original poster's veracity?


Here's a link to aggregate polling:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html


It's a sea of blue...The last time I saw so much blue was at Chavez Ravine.


and another:



http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-bush-vs-clinton

[cherokeeprogressive]

25. Nah. Just musing about how funny it is that when Qunnipiac is in Hillary's favor...

It's the Bees Knees.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. There are fifty five or so published polls as my links indicate...

Only quinnipiac and FOX showed HRC tied or trailing...

If fifty three oncologists tell me that spot on my lung is a neoplasm and two say it's nothing I am going to get my affairs in order.

[cherokeeprogressive]

28. Keep whistling past that graveyard, Friend.

In the end, we'll all still be Democrats.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

30. What graveyard...

Either she is leading in fifty three or so of the published polls or she isn't.


But in any case have a terrific weekend.

[cherokeeprogressive]

32. You too DSB. Me, I'm going to the 100th anniversary party of my favorite dive biker bar.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

33. I have been to dive bars in Orlando, never in L A. I will have to try one...I am not a big drinker..

I have been to dive bars in Orlando, never in L A. I will have to try one...I am not a big drinker but I am a people person. They had a bar in Orlando that opened at 8 in the morning. The people you would see there at that time were interesting to say the least.

[Control-Z]

37. Cook's Corner? n/t

[cherokeeprogressive]

38. Chad's. It's the oldest business in "Bear Valley". This weekend is it's 100th anniversary.

Cook's Corner ain't all it's made out to be. Cool place, nice ride, but more commercial than I'm comfortable with.

For what it's worth, as a kid my Grandpa used to take me to Irvine Lake which is only a few miles down the road. For a kid who hadn't made it into double-digits yet in age, it was like a freakin' road trip vacation from Long Beach.

[cloudythescribbler]

29. All pollsters come up with outliers, but RealClearPolitics reports this one UP FRONT as if

it were the only and definitive poll

[DemocratSinceBirth]

31. Because it fulfills the narrative they wish to advance.

eom

[Aerows]

34. And here we are, once again.

Clinton has a challenger.

[ericson00]

40. Quinnipiac must be getting fewer applications and thus fees/tuition

at least these Hillary-trashing skewed polls can bring in publicity. I don't even think that school has moved up USNWR in recent years.

[Reter]

42. Republicans always gain a year and a half out

At this point, Obama was leading Romney by 15. Hillary is toast in the general election, if she gets the nomination.