Biden run would give HRC three things to think about

[BeyondGeography]

From John Heilemann:

The Clintons and their adjutants have always understood that a Biden challenge was possible. In the long run, they believe, their candidate—with her financial and organizational advantages, her head start, the official backing of wide swaths of the Democratic caucuses in the House and Senate, and her strength with virtually every demographic group that matters in her party’s nominating electorate—would withstand it. But they also comprehend, if dimly, that in the short term a Biden entry would make their lives sheer hell, and in the medium term could be quite dangerous, for three reasons beyond the obvious.

First, it would radically exacerbate an already punishing set of media dynamics for Clinton. Whereas everything she does is viewed by much of the press corps through a prism of suspicion and cynicism, Biden is seen through precisely the opposite sort of lens. Between his underdog status, warm relationships with countless national reporters and pundits, and the irresistible narrative of a father running to fulfill his cancer-stricken son’s deathbed wish, the vice president would be all but guaranteed many weeks, if not months, of soft, forgiving, at times gushing coverage.

Second, a Biden candidacy would escalate the Bernie Sanders threat. In terms of their ideological moorings and policy stances, not much separates Clinton and Biden. They are basically mainstream liberals, and would find themselves competing for the same mainstream liberal votes. But it is possible, indeed likely, that Sanders’s further-left base of support would remain unmolested by a Biden candidacy. Could Sanders beat Clinton (or for that matter, Biden) head-to-head in Iowa, New Hampshire, or both? Maybe, maybe not. But his chances of doing so in a three-way contest would increase appreciably.

Third, with Biden in the race, the Democratic establishment would have a viable alternative. The absence of a plausible fallback option has been no small part of the reason the party’s panjandrums have been laboring to suppress their misgivings about the swirl of controversies around Clinton’s e-mail practices and her family’s foundation. The mere presence of Biden in the mix would free those anxieties to float closer to the surface—perhaps even to bubble over. Remember, even in the absence of any scandal, the establishment’s supposedly rock-solid loyalty to the Clintons crumbled quickly in 2008 with the rise of Barack Obama. Biden is no Obama, but the atmosphere around Clinton today is far more toxic than it was then. If the roof above her seems to be caving in, the establishment will want an exit. Biden would offer one.

Read more at http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-08-03/where-joe-biden-is-coming-from

[pipoman]

1. At the top of the list of things to think about should be stepping out of the race..

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. The Vermont independent has every much right to run as Biden and Clinton

The Vermont independent has every much right to run as Biden and Clinton in the primaries he has registered as a Democrat.

[pipoman]

5. It isn't the Vermont Independent I was suggesting pull out...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. Lincoln Chaffe and Jim Webb, the erstwhile Republicans have every right to ...

Lincoln Chaffe and Jim Webb, the erstwhile Republicans, have every right to join in the Vermont independent and run in the Democratic primaries where they have registered as a Democrat, am I right?

[brooklynite]

15. Right, you want the person with the highest polling to drop out...

...add to which, the candidate that most consistently beats the Republicans.

Interesting strategy.

[TexasProgresive]

6. I have no problem with Sen Sanders running as a Democrat

What I want to know is how a Vermonter can register as anything. Vermont like Texas doesn't do party registration. So how does Good Hair and Carnival run in the N.H. primary if you must be registered in a party? For that matter how did LBJ or Dr. Dean?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. Perhaps the word registration is creating confusion.

One has to presumably declare they are a member of the party whose primaries they have decided to run in.

[TexasProgresive]

16. I believe the N.H. law stipulates one must be registered

http://www.sos.nh.gov/presprim2004/Declaration%20Filing.htm
http://www.sos.nh.gov/presprim2004/Declaration%20Filing.htm

Who may file: Any person who is qualified under the United States Constitution (Article II, Section 1) [United States Citizen; resident of United States for 14 years and 35 years of age] and is a registered REPUBLICAN or DEMOCRAT may file to be a candidate in the New Hampshire Presidential Primary Election.

I, ___________________, declare that I am domiciled in the city (or town or unincorporated place) of ____________, county of _____________, state of _________________, and meet the qualifications for the office for which I am a candidate; that I am a registered member of the ______________ party; that I am a candidate for nomination for the office of ______________ to be made at the primary election to be held on the _____ day of _____, 2004; and I hereby request that my name be printed on the official primary ballot of said ______ party as a candidate for such nomination.



Signature of candidate _________________________________________

Name and Address ___________________________________________

Phone No. _________________________

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. It would be wrong to prevent Senator Sanders from competing in the NH primary ...

It would be wrong to prevent Senator Sanders from competing in the NH primary based on a overly legalistic interpretation.

[TexasProgresive]

21. I don't want to prevent anyone from running in the NH primary

I just want someone from the NH secretary of state office to explain this stupid law and how it is and has been applied.

[Thinkingabout]

11. Texas has party registrations, if you are a registered Democrat then you vote in the DNC primary,

if you are registered as a Republican then you vote in the GOP primary, if you are registered as a Independent then you can choose which primary to vote.

[TexasProgresive]

19. Wrong Wrong and wrong again

There is no party registration. When I vote in the democratic party primary my registration card is stamped that I voted in the primary. If there is a runoff only those with the proper party primary stamp can vote in the runoff. But there is no party registration. I belong to the Democratic party because I say so not because of any official registration. Texas is not the only state like this.

[Thinkingabout]

27. Have you worked in a precinct? I have, I worked in the primary election of recent in Texas.

As voters came in they was directed as to which group to vote, in the registration books, they was separated by party, in the Democratic book the republicans was not listed, in the Republican book Democrats was not registered. In both books was independents was listed. You may not have declared on your registration and ergo you will not be listed for either party. Trust me, this I know.

[TexasProgresive]

28. You say what primary you wish to vote in

It is an open primary and anybody can vote in any primary, but not both. It is then that your registration card is stamped so that you cannot vote in the other primary. And if there is a runoff only if you have the same party stamped on your card can you vote in that party runoff.

It is not as you say. Just how do you register as a dem in Texas. I don't believe that the books list voters by party because the state does not know what primary you are going vote in. Perhaps what you saw was at a runoff primary. They would know who voted in which primary because that is recorded. But that doesn't make one a registered party member.

[Thinkingabout]

29. It was a primary election in the last governors race, no registered voter was denied the right to

vote, I am registered as Democrat, my name was not listed in the Republican book, likewise people I knew who are Republican was listed in the Republican book, we also had an independent or no party affiliation could choose which party to vote, these folks was listed in both books. It works similar to regular election, you present your approved ID to the line in which your last name begins, the clerk locates your name in the book and then you sign the book, clerk writes your name on voter list sheet, the clerk gives you a small piece of paper which is taken to another clerk which produces a number which you take to the booth, enter and vote.

If you have never worked on election day it is very rewarding, good activity for retired CWA members or others which would want the experience.

[TexasProgresive]

30. Explain to me the process by which you registered as a democrat.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/05/27/state-party-registration_n_5399977.html
PARTISAN AFFILIATION BY STATE - With the 2014 elections approaching, arguments over the partisan composition of polls are inevitable, as is the perennial confusion over party identification and party registration. Most opinion pollsters measure the former with this question (or a closer variant): "Generally speaking, you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or what?" But the partisan affiliation that some voters provide when they register to vote is something different. [see also HuffPost, 2012, Brennan Center]

To help prepare for our coverage, HuffPost's Stephen Calabria compiled the most recent official registration statistics from 31 states plus the District of Columbia that enable voters to pick a party upon registering to vote. One immediately obvious characteristic of the data is the huge variability in percentage of voters who remain unaffiliated or unclassified, from a low of 8 percent in Kentucky to a high of 92 percent in Arkansas. One cause for that variability is the degree to which individual states limit primary voting to those formally affiliated with a particular party. These differences also help explain why voters often say one thing when asked how they are registered and another when asked what party they feel closer to.

[Thinkingabout]

33. I registered as a Democrat in 1981. Oerhaps if you check with your local voter

Registration office they can guide you. I live and vote in Harris County, I have voted in primary elections, I worked in the last primary election in Texas, I am not trying to be difficult especially with a member of CWA since I am a lifetime member.

[TexasProgresive]

34. I just got off the phone with my county Democratic party HQ

I was informed that there is no way to register as a Democratic party member in Texas. I told her we were have a disagreement and she said I should win free lunch. So are we on?

Edit to add: Would you contact Harris county and see if they can set Brazos county straight?

[Thinkingabout]

35. I called Harris county, they use your voter history and she said if you desire you can vote with the

Other party and they can add you in the other book but there are two books by either Republican or Democratic. So I can say I did not have all of the details but it is two register books.

[TexasProgresive]

32. I'm waiting with bated breath

Tell me how I can register as a Democratic party member in Texas, Please.

[cascadiance]

2. Yep, those voters/donors supporting the bankruptcy bill might switch from Clinton to Biden...

Don't think too many supporters of the bankruptcy bill are Bernie supporters...

[restorefreedom]

4. i actually caught mtp

as much as i loathe chuck toaster pastries, i watched. two things about biden jumped out at me. one, a columnist i think kathleen parker was very condescending, saying that biden was in grief and so forth. like the guy needs HER to tell him when to decide and/or announce. then, dws said there will"always be room" for the vp to run, but she continues to waffle about the debates.

i get the distinct impression that m$m and dws do not want biden in the race.

i don't see the issue. biden and clinton both worked for obama. i don't think they dislike each other. why does msm care who runs?

and can dws just be functional for 2 seconds?

[TexasProgresive]

8. I think Labor likes Joe better then HRC. n/t

[MannyGoldstein]

10. When did "mainstream Liberal" get redefined

to "socially middle-of-the-road, economically far-right"?

[Vincardog]

14. When the Right Stream Media does the defining

[kath]

24. Seriously! That phrase jumped right out at me too.

Arrrrgggggghhhhhh.

[dsc]

12. The first point should sicken us all

Here is a reporter, admitting to the entire world, that the press plays favorites. Now three guesses to which candidate they will favor in the general election no matter which Democrat and which Republican wins the nomination.

[BeyondGeography]

18. I agree with that

They are and will be hostile. Our nominee will have the best chance to win if s/he is able to go over their heads like Obama did. He kept them off balance because he was both a brilliant campaigner and he never created any news that put him on the defensive.

That said, the MSM doesn't have the impact that it thinks anymore. Candidates can use analytics to get to closer to their audience (i.e. likely voters) than the media and manage any mass market storms much better than in the past. That was another Obama strength.

[tularetom]

13. The inevitability meme is largely a creation of the Clinton machine

And it's already beginning to fray around the edges. The emergence of Biden as a viable candidate would make a huge, maybe fatal dent in it.

The establishment mainstream vote would be split several ways and that has to be a good thing.

[brooklynite]

17. Funny then, that "inevitability" is only mentioned by the anti-Clinton folks.

[tularetom]

22. Don't be disingenuous

It isn't necessary to actually say the word to make the statement.

I see it every day here on DU. "When she's president…", "#45", "Bernie Sanders will support her when…", etc.

From day one there was an assumption in the Clinton camp (and the party insiders) that she would be handed the nomination without having to earn it. And a lot of resentment when that turned out not to be the case.

[brooklynite]

23. ...which the Sanders people do as well...

You're seriously suggesting that supporters of a candidate shouldn't be able to say they think their candidate will win?

[HereSince1628]

25. The term "prohibitive favorite" was used again, imo stupidly*, at the end of last week.

my intention is that stupidily as used above implies slow or dim witted.

Why is that slow-witted, dim-witted stupidity? Because the existence of 4 candidates make that 'p' word ridiculous. It's -months- since HRC has projected anything like a prohibitive lead. Biden's entry would make it more so...by about 16 percent.

What I see is Biden would be perceived as an establishment Dem that leans toward continuity of Obama policy.. That would make at least 2 establishment dems in the race, one slightly more immediately connected to Obama policy than the other.

The people with money interests -love- continuity, so that creates an interesting dynamic.

"The Party Establishment" composed of DNC/3rd way Dems, the Bilderberger/Landstradd monied and it's money bundling kulaks, likely would be comforted by such an entry.

[ibegurpard]

26. what a nauseating article

I'd support Hillary over Biden in a hearbeat.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

31. I wouldn't vote for him but I hope he runs and splits the "moderate" votes.

[Jamaal510]

36. I think Biden would

siphon some support from not only HC, but also from BS if he were to run. Even as someone who hasn't declared yet, he is just 4-5 points out of 2nd place in the polls. I know it would be a tough thing to run following the death of his son and I doubt he'd do it, but I'd be delighted to see it. He has been loyal to this president since Day 1, and would be my #1 candidate for sure. By having him in the race, he would definitely provide one benefit: if any of the other candidates begin trying to "distance" themselves from Pres. O (who is still popular among the Democratic base) by diminishing his accomplishments, Biden would expose that line of thinking.

[BeyondGeography]

37. +1

to standing up for the President. Apologizing/running away from his record is a losing strategy (see midterms, 2014, e.g.) that our other candidates will find easier to pursue without Biden in the race.