Nate Silver: Clinton, Sanders and Biden

[Godhumor]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/joe-bidens-potential-2016-presidential-campaign/

Joe Biden's Schroedinger Cat Campaign

The problem for Biden is that under this “The Party Decides” view, the Democratic Party has already decided in favor of Clinton. As measured by her level of endorsements, Clinton has more support at this stage of the primary campaign than any Democrat in the modern era.

Rank-and-file Democratic voters love Clinton too. Her favorability ratings within her party range from 75 percent to 85 percent, depending on the poll, which are among the highest intraparty ratings ever for a non-incumbent candidate. (Most of the recent slippage in her ratings has come from independent voters instead of Democrats.)

...

Sanders, although in second place in the polls, has received almost no support from the party establishment. That’s for good reason. Candidates as far to the left (or the right) as Sanders have historically made for losing general election nominees. He’s also had trouble winning the support of nonwhite voters, an enormous Democratic constituency, and his unwillingness to accept super PAC money, noble though it might be, would put him at a major financial disadvantage. Sanders is not even officially a Democrat, something primary voters probably won’t care about, but party elites might.

...

But one detail that made it into several of these stories is that he plans to wait until September to make any decision. Although there are other plausible explanations, the simplest one is that Biden is biding his time, waiting as long as possible to see if Clinton is in more trouble than she appears to be right now.

[Iliyah]

1. Media is telling me that HRC in trouble? LOL

K & R

[GoneFishin]

2. Subtle.

[Blue_Adept]

3. "Her favorability ratings within her party range from 75 percent to 85 percent"

Guess that 15-25 percent are living here for the most part in a big way.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

26. methinks Nate OD'd on his medical marijuana.

No way in hell does she have approval ratings like that. Even within the Democratic party.

[hack89]

34. Nate has the track record that needs to be taken seriously

even if it is not good news for your candidate.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

39. Agreed, but he also blew it enough to force even the most

loyal fans of 538 to take it with a grain, a pinch, or even a Gandhi-like fistful of NaCl.

[hack89]

40. What exactly are you talking about?

he has nailed the past two primary and presidential campaigns.

[George II]

43. What did he "blow" in past elections?

[philosslayer]

41. Yes, it is

In spite what the Bernie supports on DU think. DU is a cocoon totally separated from the reality of Democratic party opinion. Hillary is wildly popular, and barring some sort of unforeseen catastrophe, will be a shoe-in for the nomination no matter WHO throws their hat in the ring.

[Gothmog]

4. Nate has some good analysis on the Democratic primary process

[Sheepshank]

5. I remember being super mad at Nate for his midterm prognostications.

Nate indicated taht Dems would lose a significant number of seats. I was in denial and would cling to every shred of positive news that posters here would enumerate that Dems would retain a majority in the midterms and maybe even gain seats. I also remember combing through Nate's history of evluating elections looking for huge or continued missteps. Of course there were a few. But only a very few. He seemed to be very good at what he does....and unfortunately, with the midterms he was spot on. I am inclined to accept his evaluation and be happy that it is as I wanted this time around, knowing that there may come another time when I will be disappointed once again.

[Adrahil]

7. Yeah, Nate isn't ALWAYS right...

... But he never, ever lies to himself or twists the data to a desired end. He is a data fiend. And learning how to read the data and build accurate models is what he does.

He's a guru.

[jonno99]

6. "He’s also had trouble winning the support of nonwhite voters" Let's see how this looks after

the first few debates.

Most folks who don't know Bernie just see an old looking white guy with funny hair.

Once they hear him speak - and debate the issues, methinks the tide will turn...

[Adrahil]

8. We'll see... One of Sanders' problems...

Is that he tends to counch every issue in class ans class struggle. He's not wrong, per se, but he's not completely right either. I think POC want acknowledgement of the issue of racism as a cultural and systemic issue, not just as a consequence of economic inequality. He must speak louder about that.

Also, i think he needs to clarify his stance on increasing legal immigration quotas.

[jonno99]

9. Nice summation - I agree. Hopefully Bernie's camp has gotten this word. nt

[erronis]

18. ^^ Agree. The message is the same, black/white/hispanic. The subject line may need to be tweaked.

[daybranch]

20. Cultural and systemic , of course-

who makes the culture or the system? Do the wealthy not control main stream media and our access to news and views. Obviously racism and sexism feed into the republican hate machine to drive divisions within the poor class. Say the name, the rich are killing us all , we must unite to win this fight. Sorry you would prefer a weaker target, other poor and un informed people but the racism pot was stirred throughout the history of this country. Seeing an addressing that fact by pushing back against the oligarchy will go a long way towards remedying that racism.
No one with their eyes half open can avoid seeing it is systemic and cultural but to fix the systemic and cultural problem, you must not only look at what allows this brutal racism to occur but fight ther political power of those rich who benefit from the class and racial division, getting their candidates elected.
Many African Americans are aware of this manipulation and they support Bernie. This particular theme you are manifesting does not seem anything different than the writer earlier who claimed Hillary supporters were more nuanced and more inclusive. Bernie believes what he says. He is not pandering to African Americans , nor is he insulting them by stating what he believes.
And just because some people would rather fight the poor ignorant white racist, does not mean that ignorant racist was not inspired as an element of class warfare to benefit the rich.
Bernie has it more completely right than any other candidate by being honest and straight forward.
As for his legal immigration stance you do realize he supports the immigrant and the American and believes that having more legal immigrants is a key way to raise wages for the poor by not having those who fear deportation and therefore work hard for less provide a more compliant labor force for the rich and hold wages down. He wants all workers to be treated fairly, immigrant or not.

[Adrahil]

45. Yeah, no one here is arguing...

no one here is arguing we shouldn't fight economic inequality. But addressing racism cannot be subsumed into that effort. Bernie brings it back to his central argument all the time. That's myopic, in my view. And that's not to say he doesn't care. I think he cares very much. But at the end of the day, his basic philosophy is based on class and class struggle. That's his wheelhouse and he genuiniely believes, I think, that's how to fix things. I think that view is shortsighted and incomplete. At the least, i think it makes it hard for him to connect with those for whom that is the central issue in their political lives. Maybe Bernie and his supporters really think that's the best approach. But at the least, I think that explains some of his difficulty in connecting with those voters.

[George II]

44. He has some very good ideas, an lots of criticism of the "system", but what he's really lacking...

....is solutions. Anyone can rag on the system but it's not going to change without solutions. Period.

[DCBob]

10. makes sense to me.

[Triana]

11. Sanders as "too far left" - he's an FDR Democrat

IOW, he's a REAL DEMOCRAT.

These days, ACTUAL Democrats are slapped with the "too far left" label.

It's a sad, sad testimony to how much Democrats have left behind and forgotten actual Democratic principles, and moved to the Right. (No, not center - RIGHT).

Jesus Christmas, we're fucked.

[erronis]

19. Back in the days when democrats wore the liberal label proudly

And championed the working people.

I'm not sure when this started to erode for the democrats (it was a lost cause for the nixonites.) Perhaps Hillary's husband?

[kenfrequed]

30. That is the point where Silvers has made a mistake

He has substituted "conventional wisdom" for analysis on this score. "Too far to the left" isn't terribly meaningful at this stage of the game and doesn't respect analysis as to why people aren't supporting Bernie.

[BlueStateLib]

32. :)

FDR began his 1932 campaign for the presidency espousing orthodox fiscal beliefs. He promised to balance the federal budget, which Herbert Hoover had been unable to do. Indeed, when FDR came into office, the national deficit was nearly $3,000,000,000.

FDR's budget balancing was not only based on traditional fiscal economics, but also on politics. Roosevelt believed that a balanced budget was important to instill confidence in consumers, business, and the markets, which would thus encourage investment and economic expansion. As the economy recovered, tax revenues would increase making budget balancing even easier. This traditional view that deficits were bad was also supported by public opinion polls.
http://www.fdrlibrary.marist.edu/aboutfdr/budget.html

[artislife]

12. One thing good coming out of Biden's run

if he jumps in, is that we may have debates sooner rather than later.

That would be good for all of us!

[Martin Eden]

13. One of those three did NOT vote for the IWR

And BTW, Bernie's policy positions are widely supported. If he looks "far left" compared to establishment Democrats, that's a bad reflection on them.

[Still In Wisconsin]

15. Remember when Dean said he was from the "Democratic wing of the Democratic Party?"

That's kind of how I see Sanders.

[SoapBox]

21. It's a whole different day and age...

The majority of Americans have figured out how much they are being screwed over...and when they hear his message, well that message is not extreme nor fringe nor radical...it's very, very mainstream of what people want.

The entrenched types don't want change...they like their millions/billions and their power/control and will resort to all kinds of tactics to keep it in place.

Another issue during the Dean era...communication and dissemination. The impotent MSM told what it wanted people to hear and there just wasn't much of a way around that. NOW...with social media and the net...truth spreads quickly.

I look at HRC and her lack of events other than big $$$$ dinners...and then compare that to Bernie's events and rallies, where thousands and thousands are packing in to see/hear his clear message.

On voting days, there is going to be a political revolution and the entrenched are going to be standing around wanting to know what happened.

[Still In Wisconsin]

28. I hope you're right,

and I think you just may be!

[Spitfire of ATJ]

24. He stole that line from Wellstone....

Back when Dean was a governor the dems in the state house said he acted like he was from the republican wing of the republican party.

[Still In Wisconsin]

29. I did not know that.

Thank you for educating me.

[BlueStateLib]

33. Only 1 person voted against war

Rep. Barbara Lee

[Martin Eden]

38. Which war?

Sanders and slightly more than half the Dems in the House/Senate combined voted against the Iraq War Resolution in October 2002.

[captainarizona]

14. If joe biden is the answer what is the question?

Question: how much wood could a wood chuck chuck if a wood chuck could chuck wood!

[Still In Wisconsin]

16. A wood chuck would chuck all the wood he could chuck...

that is, if a wood chuck could chuck wood.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

25. ...

[ChairmanAgnostic]

27. while she sells she cells on a sea shell on a C sore.

[SoapBox]

17. After Silver sold out several years ago...

I now take anything he says with a grain of salt.

The Entrenched don't want to rock the boat and HRC is their perfect BIG money, Hawkish, Same-Old-Same-Old candidate.

Millions and millions of Americans have had it with that crap.

[Sheepshank]

22. what did he do to sell out?

I am truly curious.

[hack89]

35. Can you point out actual errors in his methods or his predictions?

he makes a shit ton of money being right. Why would he jeopardize that?

[sadoldgirl]

23. I agree with the last paragraph.

Imo Biden waits for the first debate to see whether
HRC may screw up a bit; he will jump in if she does.

[K lib]

31. Nate is just giving his analysis based on current data and history.

But presidential nomination contests don’t provide for the same sort of astronomical certainty that you get from the sun or the moon or the tides. The sample size of competitive primaries in the reform era (since 1972) is relatively small, and the processes that govern them are complex, probably more complex than in the general election. I’d take the “over” on the 80 percent chance that betting markets give Clinton to win the nomination, but that doesn’t mean it’s 100 percent sure.

Polling can change as time goes on and it still too early to be certain about anything. He even admits the sample size for competitive primaries are small. He also can't predict what impact independents, apathetic, and cross party voter will on the primaries.

[hack89]

36. But he has a great grasp on history

Bernie will win only if he is a truly history defying candidate. There is nothing to indicate that he is.

[Attorney in Texas]

37. I would not bet against Nate. Plus, for Biden to run for president, he'd have to choose to end his

tenure as Vice President (and possibly end his tenure as an elected official) running as an underfunded underdog against a long-time political ally with whom he agrees on almost every significant political issue.

Clinton has staked out the Establishment-Centrist segment of the party (where Biden would have probably cast himself if he were running), Sanders has staked out the Liberal segment of the party, even O'Malley has eaten into the Chesapeake Bay area support that would have gone to Biden if he had entered the race earlier, and if there was a great opportunity for a candidate to run to the right of Clinton then Webb's campaign would probably be making more headlines.

While I'd be happy for another voice at the debates, I just don't see Biden wanting to end his tenure as Vice President spending all day on the phone and in the backrooms trying to coax Clinton supporters to flip to his late-to-the-game underdog campaign. That does not seem to be something Biden would enjoy or something that would likely result in the nomination.

[FSogol]

42. Why would he have to end his tenure as VP? Did GHW Bush, Did Gore? Did Mondale?

Did Ford?