"June 29: Obama Rises to 67.8 Percent" By NATE SILVER at the NYTimes

[applegrove]

June 29: Obama Rises to 67.8 Percent

By NATE SILVER at the NYTimes


http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/29/june-29-obama-rises-to-67-8-percent/

"SNIP..............................................

President Obama, who got good news in Thursday’s health care ruling, received more overnight on Friday when European leaders agreed to terms on a bank bailout. That sent the S.&P. 500 up by 2.5 percent on the hopes that this will reduce some of the downside risk in the economy.


Since the stock market is one of the economic variables the model considers, Mr. Obama’s probability of winning the Electoral College rose with the European news, to 67.8 percent, his highest figure since we began publishing the model this month.

The government also released data on personal income on Friday, another economic indicator the model uses. It rose by 0.2 percent in May, somewhat stronger than in most previous months and slightly beating market expectations. Still, personal income growth has been extremely sluggish for most of Mr. Obama’s term and remains the most pessimistic of the economic indicators the model uses.

The flow of polling has been comparatively strong for Mr. Obama of late, with leads in most battleground states in surveys published this week and national polls moving toward him, though some of this probably reflects statistical noise.

..............................................SNIP"

[ilikeitthatway]

1. I'm confused

How does Europe predict a Presidential election winner? America overwhelmingly doesn't care about Europe, in fact, they're against it. If I hear one more person say, "Obama is trying to turn us into Europe!"...

[applegrove]

2. If Europe's economy was going to be destroyed, rather than just circling the drain as it is now,

that would be worse for the US economy.

[DCBob]

3. If European econonmy tanks that will likely send the US and the world into a recession.

and President Obama will be blamed for it.

[AverageJoe90]

15. Not everybody will fall for it, though.

Some of the hardcore Repubs certainly will, and maybe a few of the REALLY low-info voters too. But a lot of people have gotten wise to the facts in recent years.

[rtracey]

4. Exports

Its not that Europe is predicting the election, It is the fact that a health, or getting healthy European market means exports for US, which tends to lead to jobs.

[Responsible]

5. New to this

Does anyone know what Obama's plan is to do about that $16+Trillion deficit or is that not as big of a deal as they say?

[Tobin S.]

6. The plan looks to be to try not to add to it

Last edited Wed Jul 4, 2012, 11:07 AM - Edit history (2)

I heard something the other day about the current administration adding less to the national debt than any administration in the last 30 years.

We actually had an opportunity to pay down the national debt when W took office, but he thought fighting two unnecessary wars was more important.

[JoePhilly]

8. Can't blame Bush, like Most Republicans, he thought war was free.

And tax cuts for the rich reduce the deficit.

And cutting taxes for the super rich create jobs.

Sadly, most Republicans still believe that nonsense.

[JoePhilly]

7. GOP runs up the tab, and then demands that Obama pay it off immediately, typical.

Enjoy your stay.

[PETRUS]

11. The deficit hawks are misrepresenting the issues and misleading people.

You might read this: http://www.manifestoforeconomicsense.org/

And consider this:

"The most important point to realize is that the problem facing wealthy countries at the moment is not that we are poor, as the stern proponents of austerity insist. The problem is that we are wealthy. We have tens of millions of people unemployed precisely because we can meet current demand without needing their labor." -Dean Baker (from http://www.cepr.net/index.php/op-eds-&-columns/op-eds-&-columns/leisure-beats-unemployment)

[socialist_n_TN]

12. "Well Reagan proved that deficits don't matter."..........

Dick Cheney. There's some bi-partisanship for you.

[PETRUS]

10. That's what they say.

And it's not untrue, but exports to the Eurozone are less than 2% of GDP so even a big change would have minimal impact.

[Robbins]

9. Update

In the now-cast nate gives Obama a 77 percent chance to win

Projection Is In popular vote Obama 50 and romney 48

Electoral vote-Obama 300 and Romney 237

Intresting tibit from nate on where states are going

Arizona-Likely Romney
Colorado-Lean Obama
Florida-Tossup(Nate has democrats now more likely to win It but still lists It as tossup)
Iowa-Lean Obama
Indiana-Likely Romney
Maine Ditrct 2,Michigan-Likely Obama
Missouri,Montana-Likely Romney
NC-Lean Romney
NH-Lean Obama
Nevada-Likely Obama
Ohio-Lean Obama
Oregon,Pa-Likely Obama
Virginia-Lean Obama
Wisconsin-Likely Obama

[fujiyama]

13. Too many "leans" and "likelys"

This election is far from over...It's too bad seeing NC leaning red.

[Wounded Bear]

16. True, but like in sports...

It's better to play from ahead than behind.

(Did I just use a sports analogy? Shit, sorry)

[kemah]

14. Debates will be pivotal

I am looking forward to the debates, Obama will surely win each one. I hope he starts the debate by thanking Mitt for health care. Obama should praise his MA health care plan and Romney's own health care advisers were the same ones that advised the Obama staff.
So thank you very much Mitt, it really works, just look at the history of the MA health care.

[klook]

17. Ask Willard a question in French

If they accept questions via the Internet at one of the debates, I'd love to see somebody submit one en Francais. Once the Teabaguettes find out Willard speaks Frog, they'll send a crew to tar & feather him!