2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumBrand new Ipsos Reid poll-HRC-55% SBS-18%/ JB 11%/ M O 2%---DT 21% JB 12%
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/ipsos-reuters-22559sufrommich
(22,871 posts)Picking Dem
(106 posts)sufrommich
(22,871 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)EOM
PoliticAverse
(26,366 posts)Adrahil
(13,340 posts)brooklynite
(94,792 posts)brooklynite
(94,792 posts)Donald Trump (R) 21%
Jeb Bush (R) 12%
Ben Carson (R) 8%
Marco Rubio (R) 8%
Mike Huckabee (R) 7%
Rand Paul (R) 6%
Carly Fiorina (R) 6%
Ted Cruz (R) 5%
Scott Walker (R) 5%
Chris Christie (R) 3%
Lindsey Graham (R) 2%
Rick Perry (R) 2%
Bobby Jindal (R) 2%
John Kasich (R) 1%
George Pataki (R) 1%
Rick Santorum (R) 1%
Wouldn't vote 10%
Agschmid
(28,749 posts)As in "in this poll" or "in the election"
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)I would guess "in the election," since the normal response would "no repsonse, don't know."
I'm more familiar with a "no responses" vote.
Thanks.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Trump will flame out.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)If that poll is correct Kasich might find himself excluded from the big boys and girls debate next time.
taught_me_patience
(5,477 posts)Is real good news. This guy would be a serious contender for the general if he were nominated.
Stallion
(6,476 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)SidDithers
(44,228 posts)Sid
taught_me_patience
(5,477 posts)And he was promptly thrown under the bus by the Bernistas. Yeah... it looks like Bernie is flatlining at about 18-22%.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)Nate also makes a compelling case that the Vermont senator can win IA and NH and lose everywhere else:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/bernie-sanders-could-win-iowa-and-new-hampshire-then-lose-everywhere-else
And the NH poll that some folks are touting to the moon might be an outlier:
Daily Kos Elections ?@DKElections Aug 11
Franklin Pierce's poll was conducted by R. Kelly Myers, who used to run UNH, one of the worst pollsters in the world https://www.linkedin.com/in/rkellymyers
God, you people are saps. First poll from this organization in six years, no track record, outlier data point. Geez.
It's possible @SenSanders could catch @HillaryClinton in NH, but a robust poll smoother shows he's not there yet.
Daily Kos Elections ?@DKElections Aug 11
So, pollster who apparently hasn't polled any elections since 2008 releases buzz-y poll on 2016. Hmm.
Daily Kos Elections ?@DKElections Aug 11
Just checked Nexis. Can't find any Franklin Pierce U. polls since 2008 *primaries*. They really didn't even poll the general?
Daily Kos Elections ?@DKElections Aug 11
Franklin Pierce's polling arm falls under the Marlin Fitzwater Center: http://www.franklinpierce.edu/institutes/mfcc/about_mf.htm He was press sec'y for Reagan & Bush
totodeinhere
(13,059 posts)What's more important is what is happening in early primary and caucus states. Bernie is much more competitive there.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)Please feel free to ignore every other state and national poll because Bernie Sanders is leading in one isolated poll in homogeneous New Hampshire.
totodeinhere
(13,059 posts)And it's all about momentum. If he does well in Iowa and New Hampshire that gives his campaign momentum going forward. Then there's Nevada where I am. We are already making significant efforts to get organized for Bernie at the precinct level going into the caucuses.
BainsBane
(53,076 posts)He's in single digits in S Carolina, which makes him less competitive there than in national polling.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)He will lose by such a large margin I suspect he will give it up.
totodeinhere
(13,059 posts)to other contests down the road,
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)I HATE our primary system. I never really get to influence it.
Except by polls. I've been polled a number of times. At least THEN my voice gets heard.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Even if you just look at the early primary and caucus states Hillary is still looking very good. Only in NH does it appear to be close.
Here's how I see it playing out.
Iowa: Hillary wins by about 5-10 points.
NH: Bernie wins by a point or two... if everything goes perfectly for the Bern.
SC: Hillary wins in a blowout.
Nevada: Hillary wins by about 5-10 points
Super Tuesday: Hillary has a very big day and Bernie surrenders.
totodeinhere
(13,059 posts)At least in my neighborhood Bernie has strong support and Clinton does not.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)I suspect it will be similar to Iowa.
totodeinhere
(13,059 posts)and Bernie is leading everywhere else. I don't think it's any coincidence that Bernie has been to Las Vegas several times. He needs to cut into Clinton's lead there.
Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)I've seen are for Bernie.
I've seen some Trump and Carson on the Republican side, but not one Hillary sticker.
SonderWoman
(1,169 posts)billhicks76
(5,082 posts)Just because Wall St and the Military want Hillary and Jeb doesn't mean we have to give it to them. Shame.
Frances
(8,547 posts)But I hope Sanders and his supporters are more empathetic with black voters in the future because without black voters turning out for the Dems in the general election, the Dems will lose
To be honest, when Sanders said that Obama lost touch with the grass roots, my first thought was that Sanders was losing touch with black voters. Obama is the first black president; he has accomplished more than most presidents against much greater odds than other presidents. After all, the Republicans decided from the very first that their goal was not to do what was best for the country, but to defeat Obama in a second term.
I think many of us Dems wondered why Sanders was attacking Obama and not the Repubs. It sounded as though he was disrespecting our black President to me.
Bottom line: If a Dem wants to win a general election, he/she should attack Repubs, not Dems.
Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)Another national poll when we don't vote that way.
lunamagica
(9,967 posts)moobu2
(4,822 posts)because the media has basically given him a free ride without looking into his past. Once he gets some real coverage and people get to know him he'll be lucky to get 10%.