Latest CNN/ORC/Int Poll Shows Sanders closing gap on Clinton

[sabrina 1]

Democratic Primary Tightens

Two things are clear in the latest CNN/ORC International poll of Democrats and Democratic leaners: 1) Hillary still leads; and 2) Bernie has significantly cut into that lead over the last several months. From Clinton's high water mark of 69 percent to Bernie's five percent in April (a 64-point deficit) to Bernie now trailing Clinton by 21 points, this race gets tighter every month.


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Overall, more Democrats say Clinton is the best person to handle the economy (Clinton 46 percent/Sanders 24 percent), race relations (Clinton 49/Sanders 25), foreign policy (Clinton 61/Biden 20/Sanders 10), and the income gap between rich and poor (Clinton 42/Sanders 33).

As some of the commenters to the thread stated, polls at this point are more about name recognitions than anything else.

As Bernie's name recognition increases, so do his poll numbers.

He is trending upwards every month, which means that the more people who are getting to know him, they more they are supporting him.

We need debates and I hope all the candidates will join O'Malley in his demand for those debates.

[virtualobserver]

1. Bernie is taking all of his new support from Hillary

Biden numbers are steady, implying a strong no-Hillary sentiment.

[Historic NY]

22. Psst... Biden isn't running....

so I'd expect most of his to go to Hillary. Chaffee, Webb & O'Malley are barely blips.

[virtualobserver]

30. Psst...the steadiness in the Biden number is a strong anti-Hillary indicator

you just might be wrong about that

[Babel_17]

40. Not as bad as losing to a dead guy, but supporting Biden ...

Not as bad as losing to a dead guy, but still supporting Biden, who's still not declared, instead of the person who has been portrayed as "the presumptive nominee" indicates a strong resistance to getting on-board with that establishment candidate.

On the other hand, Vice President Biden can't be said to echo the positions of Senator Sanders. Though he is a staunch defender of the 99%. So people who support him represent a significant question mark, imo.

If their support for Biden boils down to their trust in him, then Biden's endorsement could mean something.

[virtualobserver]

43. The only echo that I've seen was what Biden said last month

” Democratic candidates, he said, should “start in our own party” by only taking limited amounts of money during primaries from “millionaires and billionaires.”

“one single thing” that would make it possible to turn liberal priorities into law would be to “get private money out of the political process.”

I can't see him endorsing anyone, though. That would be very controversial.

[Babel_17]

44. Yeah, an endorsement now/in the near future would definitely be controversial

It will be interesting to see if Biden will even discuss the primaries in any detail.

[demwing]

48. Sure you would, it fits your narrative

I say most will go to Bernie, because the Biden numbers are steady, and the Clinton numbers are in steady decline.

[JDPriestly]

45. Biden is a nice guy, but he did not come across as presidential in the 2008 campaign

and still doesn't. He just does not have the presence to get elected as president. I know that sounds superficial, but a lot of voters vote on superficial grounds.

I don't think Biden could ever win a presidential election.

I think Bernie could. Hillary also has some real problems with regard to the way she present herself to the public.

That's basic stuff and very subjective so many may disagree with me. No question Bide is a nice person, but . . . . And then Biden is cursed and blessed with the legacy of the Obama administration. If you like the status quo, you would vote for Biden. But the mood in America right now is discontent with the status quo. That could change but probably not enough by November 2016 to make a Biden presidency possible.

That's just my opinion. Don't feel offended if you disagree with me. I am not posting this because I think that my ideas on this are the only ones that are possible.

[virtualobserver]

47. I don't think Biden would win even the nomination in the current environment

I just think that the stubbornness of the Biden number is anti-Hillary, which makes me optimistic
that Bernie could pick up the Biden holdouts, especially as the sense of Hillary's inevitability erodes.

[Armstead]

2. No,no,no...This is an invalid poll

It's more invalid than other polls because.....um, er...Nevermind

[SonderWoman]

3. Check the poll samples, almost 200 more R's polled than Dems.

That being said, every poll counts.

[virtualobserver]

5. I think that you are overstating the sampling difference somewhat

[Zorra]

4. 9% pickup by Bernie between July 25th and August 16th, 9%

drop by Clinton between July 25th and August 16th.

Another 9% pickup by Bernie in September and he'll be in a tie with Clinton next month.

However, as name recognition increases, Bernie may pick up more than 9% in September, and if that is the case, Clinton should just retire, and not waste any more resources running a lame horse.

Besides, the DNC will dump her faster than a sack of rotten onions the second they see that she is no longer of use to them.

[Metric System]

6. Clinton should just retire? FFS.

[Metric System]

38. Sorry, I posted that in the wrong thread or something. Your comment is not what I meant to respond

to.

[virtualobserver]

8. this will be an interesting month......we are reaching the tipping point

if he does catch her within that time frame, we will find out what desperation looks like.

[HereSince1628]

36. Yes, it's going to be an interesting, sorta like the Chinese curse...

"May you live in interesting times."

[leftofcool]

14. If that happens, which it won't, O'Malley will be picked up by the DNC

[Zorra]

19. I reckon they might even give him a chance to debate if they pick him up. nt

[demwing]

50. Nah, she's a lightning rod

she should stay in and soak up the negative attention, then drop out at the last moment.

Like 2008.

[Uncle Joe]

7. Kicked and recommended.

Thanks for the thread, sabrina.

[retrowire]

9. KnR. the nation is feelin' the bern!

once he surpasses Hillary, things are going to get really interesting. we won't give up.

[AppalachianLeftist]

10. Picking up non-white support as more learn who the hell he is. Check out these numbers:

[sabrina 1]

11. The reason for the effort to try to discredit Bernie among minorities was

that a majority of AAs eg, did not know who he was. So if they could discredit him BEFORE people learned who he was, it would be hard for him to overcome.

However, that isn't what happened. Ironically, those working to stop him, actually helped him.

By highlighting the NRN nonsense, more people began to wonder 'who is this guy'.

I saw it happening all over Social Media which is why I wasn't worried at all.

When they found out, I saw comments like 'wtf, why are they going after THIS GUY who has a great record on Civil Rights'? And then Bernie has a lot of friends among AAs due to his support for Jesse Jackson eg, when Dems abandoned him completely.

Did you notice how there was an effort to dismiss the civil rights activities he engaged in 'who cares about that, that was 50 years ago'. Really, well not so with AAs. They see that and realize, this isn't someone who is just talking NOW'

So yes, as more people, period, Black,White etc get to know him, they more support he gets.

His biggest problem always was 'name recognition' with everyone. Thanks to his campaign and to his amazing supporters, that problem is being handled very nicely.

[AppalachianLeftist]

13. I noticed that effort.

I find it terribly frightening that people can collectively decide an individual's life history doesn't matter because it doesn't suit their agenda.

[sabrina 1]

15. Yes it is frightening that such people exist and would deprive this country of the best leadership

it can get, and have in the past, for their own personal agendas.

The problem for such people now is that the people are far more aware of these tactics than they used to be and many of them KNEW what was going, including AAs perhaps even more so, so it failed.

But they will keep trying so nothing will surprise me.

[rhett o rick]

52. What is interesting is to see just how difficult it isfor the anti-Sanders crowd to fight honesty.

[MisterP]

23. it was also to keep him from taking off among AAs

Clinton could only be "the Black candidate" if Sanders's numbers were far lower than for whites, and 2-point differences don't exactly cut it when painting him as "disregarding race"--after all, every time they pushed that a whole slew of C-SPAN videos circulated by social media (not to mention CCA)

but by the time they were saying "his record doesn't matter" it was clear that establishmentarian deck-stacking was going on, yet again

[Chakab]

26. What's really funny is that now a subset of his supporters are doing their

damnedest to sour potential minority Sanders supporters with the incessant stream of obnoxious shit that they've been posting online since Seattle.

[sabrina 1]

29. Yes, but it isn't working. Not sure who you mean by 'subset of HIS supporters'. We know that

another tactic was for some people to pretend to be Sanders supporters so they could 'attack' from the inside.

But that was so blatantly obvious also, here and on other sites, people just rolled their eyes.

[Babel_17]

41. Looks like the vast majority who hear about Sanders are favorably disposed

That means Sanders campaign doesn't need a retooling. Improving and evolving, yes, but the Sanders campaign chose the right methodology for getting their message out.

This could be the month of sharp contrasts. A significant number of people are forming their opinions on Sanders vs. everyone else (Democrat and Republican) and have enough information now to see the differences between what is offered.

The consistency of what Sanders represents is helping a lot in this, imo. There's no need for polling, and massaging of the message or its delivery, and people are now taking stuff like that into account.

Sanders authenticity, and the degree people feel they can put their trust in him, are attributes that are now going to be paying steady, significant, dividends.

[PowerToThePeople]

12. Lots of time to go.

Feeling the Bern!

[mckara]

16. Just Wait 'til the First Debate: Bernie Will Be Ahead!

n/t

[Maedhros]

17. If this is true:

Overall, more Democrats say Clinton is the best person to handle the economy (Clinton 46 percent/Sanders 24 percent), race relations (Clinton 49/Sanders 25), foreign policy (Clinton 61/Biden 20/Sanders 10), and the income gap between rich and poor (Clinton 42/Sanders 33).

Then, overall, 42% of respondents to this poll are pretty damned clueless.

[1StrongBlackMan]

18. What? this poll can't be trusted ...

it only polled 1,001 people!!! (I'm kidding)

As Bernie's name recognition increases, so do his poll numbers.

Look a little closer:

Aug. Favorable Aug. Unfavorable Aug. Unknown N/O
35 (+12) 27 (+5) 28 (-13) 10 (-3)


July Favorable July Unfavorable july Unknown N/O
23 22 41 13

Bernie's name recognition increased 13 points, his Favorable rating went up 12 points; but his unfavorable went up 5 and his No Opinions went down 3 points ... which means that as more people get to "know" him, about 2/3 have a unfavorable opinion. That is not a good trend.


This poll has some fascinating information in it. My observations, from a quick read through:

Bernie's Demographics seem to be holding, educated, upper-incomed, white, males.

HRC might be in trouble, as she is lagging in favorables among a key demographic (PoC) and PoC are less enthusiastic than other demographics.

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

31. You might look at the chart in response 10.

When looking at non-white respondents in the poll, his unfavourables didn't go up at all, and his favourables went up 16 points.

Bernie's favourables with non-whites are rising nicely as his name recognition expands.

[1StrongBlackMan]

32. Response 10? n/t

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

33. Comment 10?

Is there some site specific jargon I've missed?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=531300

[1StrongBlackMan]

37. I've searched the actual poll ...

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/08/18/rel8b.-.democrats.2016.pdf

and have no idea where these numbers come from. Granted, I had a rough day; but, still.

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

39. Well, the columns for the current poll seem to be pulled from pages 20-21 and 24-25 of that pdf.

I'm guessing the numbers for the prior poll are pulled from a prior pdf.

[questionseverything]

53. n/a in the 18-34 age group

does that mean that age group was not a big enough sample to post results?

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

54. Dunno, I didn't really dig in, I was just looking for

the numbers that matched the chart.

[4lbs]

21. Since Biden most likely won't be running, it will be interesting where his 13% transfers. nt

[C Moon]

49. That is a valid point.

[Flying Squirrel]

24. At that rate

They could be in a dead heat by December.

[pnwmom]

25. We need debates? We'll be having six of them, plenty of time for a handful of candidates

to get their message across.

Fortunately, this isn't the Rethug party, with its multitude of debates for its multitude of mini-candidates.

[sabrina 1]

27. When do the debates start? And why only six? When the candidates and their supporters

are asking for more debates, what is the problem?

And why was a rule, which may well be legally unenforceable, applied to candidates regarding participating in debates outside the DNC's limited number of debates?

It's clear that this decision is very unpopular as it should be.

O'Malley is right that the candidates should ignore that rule. What are they going to do, have every candidate removed from the stage when they show up for the DNC's first debate? It is ludicrous to try to control things this way.

[mymomwasright]

28. 26 Dempocratic Party Debates in 2008

This was purposely done to protect Clinton. IMHO, I think 10 or 12 would have been a fair number. To not permit exposure and dialogue with civil debates prior to the primaries is undemocratic and is an obvious fix by those with money and garnered power!

[JDPriestly]

46. Ten, even eight would be OK. Six does not give our candidates, any of them, the national

exposure they need.

I'm in California. I was really grateful to Bernie for speaking on the Southeast side of Los Angeles. Candidates usually go to other areas of the city or most often don't even bother to come here.

We need the debates in order to see the candidates in action. For us that is really important. And Hillary is not only avoiding debates, but she isn't giving many interviews either. She is really riding on her name recognition. That's not good for Democrats in general.

We need more debates.

[artislife]

34. It's deja vu all over again

Looking up something else, I came across this
Polling trends[edit]

All opinion polls in April 2007 showed Clinton as the Democratic frontrunner, however with different margins: Obama was listed in third place nationwide with 17% and John Edwards in second place with 19% behind Clinton with 41% [14] according to an Angus-Reid poll, whereas Clinton was listed in first place with 34% and Obama in second place with 29%, ahead of Edwards with only 15% in a Rasmussen-Reports poll.[15] By May 2007, polls were showing the race even tighter, with Rasmussen Reports showing Obama pulling ahead of Clinton 32% to 30%.[16] But on May 24, 2007, a CBS News/NY Times poll showed Clinton, with 46%, 22 points ahead of Obama, with 24%, and 32 points ahead of Edwards, with 14%. Clinton held her lead over the summer; in September a CNN poll showed her leading Obama 46% to 23%,[17] and in October the same poll showed her commanding majority Democratic support, with 51% compared to Obama's 21% and Edwards' 15%.[17]

On May 4, 2007, a Gallup Poll report showed that since the beginning of the year, her favorable-unfavorable ratio had declined from 58% favorable, 40% unfavorable to 45% favorable, 52% unfavorable.[18]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillary_Clinton_presidential_primary_campaign,_2008

[sabrina 1]

35. Interesting, thanks. It looks like Bernie is actually ahead of where Obama was at this time in

2007.

[Babel_17]

42. The media didn't prepare for that eventuality, so I expect a lag in the reporting of it

The biggest names in political journalism avoid going out on limbs. But once lesser luminaries start monopolizing attention by reporting on the Sanders campaign game changing successes, their reporting will change.

First they'll try to identify how the Sanders is succeeding, and then quantify the degree it's doing so. Eventually they'll have to just hold onto their hats because the story won't be one you can pin down. People will be jumping on-board the campaign, and it's popularity will be trending steadily upward.

And that's already happening.

[sabrina 1]

57. Good points, I think you are right, about the cowardice of the 'journalists' who are spending

their time on the Reality TV Star. They should be LEADING the news but you're right, they will follow the New Media once they see how irrelevant they are compared to real news.

[John Poet]

51. Stop attacking Hillary

by posting these poll results !

<snark>

[artislife]

55. Leave Hillary alone!!

[d_legendary1]

56. Yeah but...but...CNN also said that

she'll win in a land slide against the Republican Circus freak show! So...Hillary for president!!!

[Babel_17]

58. Secretary Clinton over Trump by 6% according to CNN

http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/19/politics/2016-poll-hillary-clinton-joe-biden-bernie-sanders/

Might be just a bump in the road due to the current relatively low profile of HRC vs. the current high profile of talk about the e-mails. So, the Clinton campaign taking action to shore up its numbers, while beating down its detractors, will be a big story in the coming weeks.

The drama, imo, will come from this not being anticipated.

Or maybe the Clinton campaign will figure it looks stronger by avoiding addressing in a major way what it considers to be little more than distractions. Why give them, or Trump, the appearance of substance by speaking of them as if they were credible?

But the pot bubbles as Sanders campaign gains popularity, and its resources increase, and the GOP base gets stimulated by Trump playing ringleader to the Republican circus act. Pretty interesting stuff for so early in the campaign.