Dare I say Bernie has peaked?

[DCBob]

[Agschmid]

1. Nah.

[peacebird]

2. LOL! Not hardly!

[CaliforniaPeggy]

3. Nope, you can't say it, because he hasn't. n/t

[WillyT]

4. Good Luck With That...

[SonderWoman]

5. Hillary only lost 10 points since May?

And the media is in a frenzy???

[sabrina 1]

44. Hillary is under 40 now in some polls. From the 80s which we saw here on DU for

over a year, all the way down to 38/49, I would say that is called trending downwards. Bernie meantime has gone from 3% to 42% in NH eg, in just 100 days. And he's only just begun.

[TheFarS1de]

6. No ....

he plateaued How about waiting and THEN see what happens . There aren't too many Nostradamus's out there .

[delrem]

7. I don't know. Do you think Hillary has plateaued yet?

We're all on the edge of our seats, watching one precipitous fall, one slow climb.

But hell - we all know that the polling horse-race is for fools, and click-bait for the MSM. So get out there and support your issues, support the candidate that best represents your issues.

[appalachiablue]

8. Bernie's just getting started.

[Hiraeth]

9. Dare I ask when did Biden announce and how did I miss it?

[Autumn]

10. Dare I ask who's the purple? Oh Hillary, never mind.

[aikoaiko]

11. People have said it before. Sure, go ahead.

[HereSince1628]

12. Yes, for the 3rd time; Sander's polling shows 3 little pointy peaks

It's too bad that there aren't sufficient data to create decent Bollinger bands, it'd be educational.

Polling data is noisy. If the assumptions of the statistical model and the structure of the polling model is correct, a std error of 5% turns out to be 5%. When they don't, and they often don't, then the 5% error isn't.

We need another month to see if Sanders peaked similarly to Clinton's peak did back in Feb/March.

[teach me everything]

19. Considering it's national polls, which is completely irrelevant to the primaries

State polls are better in assessing the numbers.

[HereSince1628]

24. Perhaps, though I think national polls do influence the band-wagon effect

just as much as short memes from surrogates of the form candidate A has a problem with demographic J.

Primae faciae it"s apparent that this year's state polls are quite variable in their quality and the quality.
Any signal such as "peaking" must be sufficiently sustained to overcome the inherent noise they contain.

While we all would love to have an excellent understanding of the developing end of the timeline, it turns out that part of the time-series is quite difficult to know, what is better known is any general trend that shows up in such surveys over a handful of weeks.

Which is why I would hold judgement on this most recent minor peakyness in Sander's polling numbers until it is possible to see it embedded within weeks before and weeks after it.

[teach me everything]

25. The bandwagon effect will ALWAYS find the winners f

if one candidate wins both the first two states, then I'm sure others will follow as there are only two real choices for the Democratic nomination.

Bernie or Hillary

[NRaleighLiberal]

13. pretty bad science to draw that conclusion. it's a marathon, not a sprint.

[DCBob]

14. Yes, of course you are correct.

I'm sticking my neck out on this one... but I think it may very well be the first signs of "Peak Bern".

[seabeyond]

15. uh oh... both clinton and sanders are headed the wrong way.

[AgingAmerican]

16. His surge will begin with the debates

The steady climb since May is only the warm up.

[1000words]

17. Bookmarking ...

[Stuckinthebush]

18. He is close to his ceiling if not at it

He may get a blip of a bump after debates. I would love to see Hillary pick him as a running mate.

[teach me everything]

20. No - there's more upside

after the debates - when people decide who's the better candidate - if the surge will continue in a sharper upward angle. DNC will have to decide if they want to add debates between October 13th, November 14th and December 19th. Maybe two more in between?

[Stuckinthebush]

21. I don't see it happening

But the beauty is that we get to see in a few months.

[teach me everything]

22. Right. So there's plenty of time to decide between now and then.

I respect everyone's decisions and will not push, as I'm still undecided, but leaning towards Bernie.

[Stuckinthebush]

31. Me too, honestly

But leaning towards Clinton. The fights on DU are becoming annoying though so I avoid clicking on most Sanders or Clinton threads.

I'm ready for the primaries to be over so we can focus on one candidate - who ever he or she may be!

[demwing]

38. Not even one debate and you're tired of the primary?

Actually, it seems like it's the arguments on DU that you're really tired of...and that's not the primary at all.

[Stuckinthebush]

39. Tired of the DU lunacy

How about that instead? This place is ridiculous but I love it. The Bernie folks are convinced Clinton is the devil and the Clinton folks are convinced that Bernie is unelectable. They fight and squabble like middle schoolers.

Debate? Like those will change minds at DU. Please

[demwing]

40. Don't take DU too seriously

I could write a chapter on why not, but its too snore inducing to detail. Just trust me on this one...

[Stuckinthebush]

47. Great advice

I've been here since the beginning of DU time and it seems to get worse every election cycle. I just suck it up and go to the Lounge!

[sadoldgirl]

23. Certainly, you can say anything you

want to as long as it is within civil grounds.

And keep telling yourself that, if it makes you
feel good. Only time will tell.

[jfern]

26. Obama peaked at 26% in March 2007

He never got any higher in all of 2007

[cascadiance]

28. He certainly started a bigger DOWN turn around this time in 2007....

Seems like Bernie's not dropping off like he did then! So... HARDLY PEAKING I'D SAY!!! And... No debates yet either!

[PatrickforO]

27. Do I dare?

Shall I part my hair behind? Do I dare to eat a peach?
I shall wear white flannel trousers, and walk upon the beach.
I have heard the mermaids singing, each to each.

I do not think that they will sing to me.

This may just be noise because Biden is now possibly going to enter the race. If that happens, all bets are off.

[BooScout]

29. Yes he's peaked...

His summer fling is over.

[Vinca]

30. That's what happens when you're disappeared by MSM.

Bernie has no scandals surrounding him, so what's the point if it won't increase ratings?

[Uncle Joe]

32. How does one copy that particular poll graph? I've never been able to do it.

Thanks for the thread, DCBob.

[Fawke Em]

43. You can't.

You have to save the image to your computer and then host it either on your own site or at one of the free image hosting sites.

[Recursion]

33. Bit early to say that IMO

I think he does have a ceiling, but I am not convinced he's at it yet.

[kenfrequed]

34. Feh

People keep saying it and it keeps not happening. Maybe people shouldn't be projecting their preferences and expectations in the media like this.

[LWolf]

35. Sure.

Say away.

That doesn't make it true.

[cali]

36. sure. say whatever you wish. you may even be right. Or not. n/t

[JackInGreen]

37. oh look

it's this thread again.

[WillyT]

41. What Is This... The 10th Post ???

Good luck.

[Autumn]

42. Dare I say Hillary is on the down hill slide?

Because your own graph shows she is.

[AgingAmerican]

45. The debates haven't even started yet

He will peak on Tuesday, November 8, 2016.

[magical thyme]

46. you mean like he peaked back in July? And then in August?

Look closely at each line. None of them goes straight up or straight down or straight across.

They all go up some, down some, across some. You need to look at the overall trend from the starting point to the ending point.

Are successive peaks higher? Or lower? Are successive troughs higher? Or lower?

Bernie trends up; each peak is higher than the last. Each trough is higher than the last.

Biden trended slightly up, but since July keeps hitting the same peak and flattening, while his successive troughs trend upward. Maybe officially announcing and campaigning will change that.

Hillary trends down; each peak is lower than the last. Each trough is lower than the last.

The rest trend flat within a narrow range.

[Attorney in Texas]

48. Unless Biden gets in the race tonight, Sanders has NOT peaked. Sanders may win Iowa and likely will

win New Hampshire.

Unless Biden jumps in the race (in which case, all bets are off except the 3 bets that Biden will not likely win the nomination, Biden likely hurts Sanders' chances in the primary, and Biden weakens Clinton as a candidate), this trend of Sanders gaining on Clinton in Iowa and New Hampshire will likely continue.

As you see in Iowa and New Hampshire, the more voters hear from Sanders, the more they like Sanders. There is no reason to doubt that as voters elsewhere learn more about Sanders, they will help expand Sanders' surge beyond Iowa and New Hampshire.

But most critically, if Sanders wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, this will create a huge momentum shift in the race that will change the playing field.

Has Sanders peaked? Doubtful.

[DCBob]

49. Actually his downward trend is continuing..

I think he has peaked.

[Attorney in Texas]

50. I said "unless Biden gets in the race." Sanders' downward trend corresponds to Biden's upward trend

over the past two weeks where your graph shows Sanders as having peaked but BIDEN IS NOT A CANDIDATE so your graph which assumes Biden is a choice on the ballot is CONTRARY TO FACTS -- in the real world (as opposed to the fictitious race that is the subject of this polling) Biden is not a choice on anyone's ballot.

The graph you show depicts NONCANDIDATE Biden's support over the past two weeks growing at Sanders' expense. I agree a Biden candidacy diminishes Sanders' chances at the nomination but Biden's campaign also wrecks Clinton's chances in the general election. If Biden runs, he is a spoiler. Agreed.

If Biden doesn't run, Sanders' position in the race will grow. If Biden runs, we probably get a severely damaged Clinton-[centrist from a swing state] candidacy which will be weakened when challenging the Bush-Kasich ticket.

If Biden doesn't, we'll see whether Sanders pulls off an upset or if Clinton wins a clean policy-issue-oriented campaign against Sanders and we may get a string Clinton-[progressive added for party unity] ticket.

[Warren DeMontague]

51. indeed, there's a leeetle teeny tiny toony downward-goin' nubbin at the verrry end of the brown line

I SMELL A TREND!!!!

[MADem]

52. Need a bit more data. His line is just barely pointing down, Clinton's is just barely looking up,

Biden is flattening and everyone else remains invisible.

[jfern]

53. CNN Has Hillary leading only 37-27

And if you look on RCP for 2007, you could definitely say Obama had peaked and couldn't break 26%.

[Scootaloo]

54. If by "Bernie" you actually mean "O'Malley," sure

At least, according to that graph. Sorry O'Malley fans, but you gotta admit, that's a pretty flat line he's got there