State and National Polls Tell Different Tales About State of Campaign

[flamingdem]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/24/state-and-national-polls-tell-different-tales-about-state-of-campaign/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

-snip

In theory, state polls and national polls must ultimately agree with each other: the whole must equal the sum of the parts. In practice, they leave a different impression about the state of the presidential race.

Consider that as of Tuesday afternoon, President Obama’s lead in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls was 1.3 percentage points over Mitt Romney.

But Mr. Obama led by a mean of 3.5 points in the RealClearPolitics averages for the 10 states (Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, Michigan, New Hampshire and Wisconsin) that are most likely to determine the election outcome, according to our “tipping point index.” If the list is expanded to cover the five other marginally competitive states where RealClearPolitics calculates a polling average — Arizona, Minnesota, Missouri, New Mexico and North Carolina — Mr. Obama’s lead averages 3.1 points, according to the numbers.

While that isn’t an enormous difference in an absolute sense, it is a consequential one. A one- or two-point lead for Mr. Obama, as in the national polls, would make him barely better than a tossup to win re-election. A three- or four-point lead, as in the state polls, is obviously no guarantee given the troubles in the economy, but it is a more substantive advantage.

The difference isn’t an artifact of RealClearPolitics’s methodology. The FiveThirtyEight method, which applies a more complicated technique for estimating polling averages, sees broadly the same split between state and national polls.

Or if you prefer a bare-bones approach, you can take a count of the polls conducted in swing states: how many show leads for Mr. Obama, and how many put Mr. Romney on top?

In polls from the top 10 tipping point states since June 1, Mr. Obama has led by any margin in 43 surveys, while Mr. Romney has held the lead in nine of them. more at link

[demosincebirth]

1. NBC poll, today, gave Obama a six point lead nationally. 49-43. Posted some where here today.

[longship]

2. Meaningless national poll.

We elect by state, not by national. Although it is nice to see Obama ahead, citing a national poll doesn't mean much of anything.

It is thet electrical college thang.