How does romney/ryan plan to get to 270?

[morningfog]

They have a tough road ahead if they are going to make it close. I am talking about actual electoral college votes, not the MSM's ginned up horse race or even the national polling.

As long as Obama holds Iowa, Pennsylvania, Nevada and New Mexico, he can win with just one more from NC, VA, OH, FL or CO.

Romney would have to sweep OH, FL, NC and VA or pick off PA plus OH and FL.

Obama has many routes to 270, he is actually sitting at 300 safe. I just don't see romney with his high unfavorables making up the ground he would need to to even make this close.

Map to play with: http://www.270towin.com/

[Warpy]

1. Their innate warmth and charm, I suppose

along with the superiority of ideas that have consistently failed for 32 years.

I don't think it'll be close enough to rig them in. I do think if the GOP survives their 2016 convention, it will be a tough fight.

[madinmaryland]

8. Good point, Warpy. The financial policy of cutting taxes for the wealthy has been failure.

Actually it has been an epic fail for all Americans, except for the wealthiest of the wealthy.

[doc03]

2. He has backers that will spend or do whatever it takes n/t

[morningfog]

4. That isn't enough. Money won't do it.

[Panasonic]

10. Right now, allt he money in the world of GOP PAC are simply pissing money into the wind.

And the advertising agencies ought to think about billing the Romney campaign 100x the usual rates, since it also threatens their way of life as well.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

3. I don't really see it happening either

However, we can't let our guard down. We need to think about the downballot races as well. If we have a strong DNC and Obama/Biden deliver strong debate performances and, especially, continue to keep Romney/Ryan on the defensive, I think that we will be fine IMHO.

[morningfog]

5. Totally agree. Keep the R's on defense and work hard on the House, Senate anad Governor races.

[RZM]

6. Colorado, Ohio, Iowa, and Florida will decide things

I think Pennsylvania is a lock for Obama. While I don't think they are locks, I predict Romney will win Virginia and North Carolina.

That leaves the states in my headline. Both Ohio and Florida are must-wins for Romney. But even then, he still needs either Iowa or Colorado to win. I don't see that happening. I don't think he can get Ohio, Florida AND either Colorado or Iowa. My prediction is that he loses Colorado for sure, and probably also Iowa. Florida and Ohio could go either way, but it's unlikely that they will both go to Romney. Even if they do, he still has a 'mountain to climb' ( to get Colorado.

It's just not happening for the Mittster. But don't feel to bad for him. He still has a couple hundred million to retire on.

[Panasonic]

9. Colorado's going Obama.

Last poll numbers are +9 on Obama over Romney here, and I expect it to continue to hold or increase.

Plus every time the shitt comes to town, we wind up having to pour sand over his crap that he spew to prevent contamination.

And then the sanded crap gets buried near Mitt's California home.

[Motown_Johnny]

12. VA is enough to put Pres. Obama over 270. Or OH, or FL.

Rmoney needs all three plus CO or Iowa.


Very unlikely.

[Panasonic]

7. They won't.

Based on the information I have crunched - Romney and Ryan has all the usual red states, MINUS all the bellweather/purple states that was needed.

Wisconsin goes blue and boots out even more Republican morons, ridding themselves of any Walker attempts in fucking up their own state.

Romney has no real permanent residence, and the only state that goes red for him would and most likely be Utah.

Nothing else will go red for him, California (don't make laugh), Michigan (Again, ridding themselves of Republican morons), New Hampshire (but just barely, but the independents favors Obama), and finally Massachusetts, not only will Romney lose, that they remove that disgusting piece of shit that is sitting on Kennedy's vaunted seat and goes to Ms. Elizabeth Warren.

[boxman15]

11. I have no idea, especially now with the Ryan VP pick.

Obama has always had the advantage in the electoral race. Like you said, he has several paths to 270, while Romney's paths are very few in number. But with the Ryan pick, he, in my opinion, has just lost Florida, which makes it virtually impossible to win. If Obama wins Florida, he can lose Nevada, Colorado, Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia, and North Carolina and still win:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=qPb

But, if the Democrats play their cards right, this could get very ugly very quickly. Considering just how unpopular so many of the provisions of the Ryan budget are across the nation, this is my new prediction for what will happen in November:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=qPj

I used to laugh when I saw the landslide predictions I saw on here. I saw Obama winning 330 votes at the absolute most. But now, it's completely different with Ryan on the ticket. There are only a few states I feel Romney can truly count on now. I might be overreacting (in fact I probably am), but the Ryan pick is such a terrible choice for a running mate it's mindboggling. This might be an LBJ-Goldwater repeat.

[Cosmocat]

24. Yep

I thought BO would win comfortably, but a little short of 2008, thereby allowing the Rs (and "liberal" media" to crow about how weak of a reelection he won and how that means he has to tack harder to the right.

But, Ryan ...

Jesus, how could Romney not see that he put himself in a bad spot in Florida with him.

He loses Florida, and he is done.

Flat done.

And, it could bleed him in other "swing states."

Further, I was 99% certain the D could not pull the House back, but Ryan is so toxic he very likely puts the House into play ...

[BlueStreak]

13. The Koch/Adelman/Rove ticket very definitely has a path to 270

They would hope to put WI back into play with the Ryan pick.

They think they have enough vote rigging done in OH and FL to take those two.

Ryan probably takes VA out of play for the Republicans.

They are trying their best to disenfranchise enough voters in PA to put that one back on the table.

And CO is close.

If they can take CO, WI, FL, and OH, then they are right there.

[morningfog]

21. Ryan isn't enough for WI. No way.

Historically, running mates give about a a +2% in the veep home state. Nate Silver sees Ryan as a net .7% for Romney in WI.

Obama won WI by 12 points in 2008. It is solid Dem. Your scenario requires successful election fraud in 3 states. Ain't gonna happen.

[davidpdx]

14. The path will be very difficult you are correct about that

Florida and Ohio would be absolute must wins, if he loses those I can't see any way he'd win. As you pointed out even if he picked off Florida and Ohio, he'd still have to win quite a few more states.

Being very generous and giving him: All the states McCain won in 2008 + Florida + Ohio + Indiana + 1 Nebraska (the one congressional delegate from 2008) puts Romney at 238 (short 32 electoral votes).

The possible states he would have to go after are:

Nevada 6
Colorado 9
Iowa 6
Wisconsin 10 (the last time Wisconsin when red was 84')
Virginia 13
NC 15
New Hampshire 3

In order to get those other 32 he'd need a combination of 3 or more of those states. In other words he's have to flip 6 states at a minimum (probably more) to win. With Wisconsin being highly unlikely (I only put it on there because of Ryan) that narrows the possible paths.

[crimson77]

15. As I said in another thread....

RCP has Romney at a starting point of 191, Add FL,NC,VA,WISC,IA and Colorado.

Florida Is the key, he wins Florida and he has a good night. It means he and Ryan have overcome the Mediacare problem.

NC/VA I look at those two as very similar. If one goes Romney's way the other will too.
Wisc Homestate boy makes good, nice ring to it.
IA close enough,could go either way, proximity to Wisc.
CO Tossup state, does Aurora make the gun people unite and get them to the polls enmasse, who knows.

That's his road to 273 without Ohio.

[MiniMe]

16. With voter ID laws

If they can keep the dems from voting, they should be able to win big.

[flamingdem]

17. + this

[AlinPA]

23. PA will be a big probem for us with these Voter ID laws.

[Cosmocat]

25. It won't help Romney

My fellow PAer ...

IF it holds up in court, I don't think it gets Romney close enough to steal PA.

I do think the state Rs know that, but they also know it will only serve to ensure their insanely gerrymandered control at the state level - it is craven party politics, but also self serving.

[Eagle_Eye]

18. Republicans are experienced cheaters

They also have the backing of the Supreme Court.

[WI_DEM]

19. Iowa is a state that they think the Ryan selection will help in and then in WI, of course...

so if they were successful in taking those two states away that would be 17 electoral votes. But still they would need to win OH, FL, and NC (I'm giving VA to Obama).

[WI_DEM]

20. Also NH is still not firmly in the Obama camp.

[sofa king]

22. I don't think they're even trying any more.

The way I see it, there are two possible remaining strategies for the GOP:

* Put Ryan on the ticket, focus on threatened Congressional districts, and try to avoid losing control of the House, or;

* Mitt Romney has a plan to take the final decision out of the hands of voters.

Even though it is extremely unwise to underestimate how evil Mitt Romney really is, I think there are some indications that the first option is the case. The timing of the announcement clearly indicated that the issue was forced, and that the pick itself may have been forced by someone other than Mitt. Romney's subsequent cancellation of television appearances, and his current "exhaustion" both suggest that Romney is unhappy and maybe even pissed off.

Romney would be pissed off if someone sat him down on Friday night, explained to him that he had already lost the election before being nominated, and that now it was time to do some damage control in the House so that the GOP can at least try to prevent total loss of control in Congress.

Or, as I said, they have a plan to steal it which involves a massive change in voter opinion and a suppression of turnout across all states, or even no voting at all.

[ejpoeta]

26. and how many of those states are purging the rolls

and making it harder to vote? hmm. what a coincidence.

[still_one]

27. supressing the vote /nt

[Scuba]

28. Ding, ding, ding. We have a winner.

Don't forget Diebold/ESS/Sequoia.

[CanonRay]

29. Steal Ohio, Wisconsin and Florida

and stop people from voting in Pennsylvania. Buy Colorado, North Carlina and Virginia.

[Yavin4]

30. I Just Don't See Romney Winning Florida

The elderly are fiercely protective of SS and Medicare, and rightfully so. The elderly know that those programs are literally life and death for them.

[Sheepshank]

31. While those that are already retired may feel safe from Ryans plan......

...those that are approaching 55 are not feel safe at all. Of those approaching 55, many still have parents that are alive and those parents will vote in the interests of their children, neices, nephews etc. Ryan's plan is not a winning strategy. The issue for the Dems is to get the info out to all the senior voters. Many seniors do belong to AARP and there is already some info they are presenting to their membership.

[progressivebydesign]

32. you have it backwards btw.. It's Ryan/*Romney. n/t

[HopeHoops]

33. The usual - steal them.

[taught_me_patience]

34. They're hoping to hold Florida

betting that seniors fear of the black man in the white house trumps their fear of dismantling social security. I bet R/R win Florida... a lot of seniors have the "I got mine... fuck them" attitude.

[morningfog]

35. Obama won FL in 2008. There is nothing there to hold. They would have to flip it.