The Monmouth poll included NO new voters. Only 24% age 49 and under.
Monmouth Iowa PollThe Monmouth University Poll
was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from October 22
to 25, 2015 with a statewide random sample of 400 Iowa voters drawn from a list of registered Democratic voters who voted in at least one of the last two state primary elections and indicate they are likely to attend the Democratic presidential caucuses
in February 2016. This includes 300 contacted by a live interviewer on a landline telephone and 100 contacted by a live interviewer on a cell phone, in English. Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. Final sample is weighted for age and gender based on state registration list information on the pool of voters who participate in primary elections. Data collection support provid
ed by Braun Research (field) and Aristotle (voter list). For
results based on the total sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributab
le to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in
conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.
Also Poll Demographics indicate that only 24% of those polled were age 49 and under.
Just those two categories alone leave out many Bernie Sanders supporters.
When a poll giving Hillary a huge lead doesn't include new caucus voters, it needs to be analyzed.
The Loras survey does include more recently registered caucus voters.
Survey conducted with a random sample of registered voters, with phone numbers drawn from official Iowa Secretary of State voter files of those who voted in either the 2012 or 2014 general election or who had registered since December 1, 2014.
This poll includes more voters under age 49.... .37%, still a little under a third.
Loras poll states that only 18% of those polled own a landline. Yet 80.1% of those polled were reached by landline.
My support for Bernie Sanders is growing stronger. Seeing the under-representation of categories of his main supporters in these polls bothers me greatly.
= new reply since forum marked as read
DEMOCRATS
Based on questionnaires filled out by voters across the state as they exited the polls.
% of total Obama Edwards Clinton
22% 17-29 years old 57% 14% 11%
22 65 and older 18 22 45
58 Married 28 27 29
42 Single 43 17 24
43 First-time Iowa caucusgoers 26 30 24
22 Labor union member in household 30 24 30
Graphic Graphic: Complete Profile of the Primary Voters
///////////////
43% were first time caucus goers...this group is completely overlooked in the poll we are discussing
the 65 plus are way over sampled(39%) in the poll too when in reality they don't come out that strong at 22%
Many times here at DU I see myself and others treated as outside the party. I see the many times it is said or implied that Bernie himself is racist. I have seen a difference between this and other primaries. There are always words between supporters, but this time there is a contempt bordering on hatred.
We are looked upon as interlopers who are meddling in party affairs that were already settled.
So many polls all at once pushing Hillary way way ahead, so many unions jumping in to support her. More congressional endorsements every day. It's like the blessings of heaven came down this week for Hillary.
It's meant to be a turning point in the primary. It was meant to be a clear statement of the outcome.
If it turns out that way, then that's the way it is. Meanwhile it's like the polls, the union endorsements, don't include the people behind Bernie candidacy....us.
It was considered time this week to again make clear the inevitable.
Not so sure how that's going to work.
