In 2008 Did we know 4 Days Before That Obama Would Win?

[romantico]

My memory is a little fuzzy but I remember watching the polls. They were very close. One day McCain was ahead by one or two pints the next Obama was. It wasn't until the Saturday before the election. I was watching John McCain and Tina Fey on SNL. It was at the moment I thought to myself McCain may have lost. I just thought to myself why is he doing this? Cindy was also on the show with him.

Seems like the next day or so John looked tired and sluggish. The polls were beginning to go towards Obama.

My question is, like we could predict the outcome of the 2010 election and how it looked good for the Republicans months in advance,can we do the same here? Do you think by Halloween we will have a good idea by the polls who will win?

[Agnosticsherbet]

1. The polls I followed did not show a horse race.

Oh, the news pretended it was close, but it wasn't.

After the nominating convention bump passed for McCain, it was clear to the end that he would lose.

[liberal N proud]

2. We did not know until late election night

At least I know I was unsure.

But what's troubling is that this looks more like 2000/2004, even though it makes no sense the polls show the race close. This makes it easy for them to steal a state or two and land the election that way.

I worry more about that than Romney winning outright.

[CabCurious]

3. Nobody sensible trusted any polls even during exit polling...

[rocktivity]

4. I knew two months before

the day McCain picked Palin. Barely 24 hours after my writing this, the Bristol pregnancy story broke:
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/rocknation/369


rocktivity

[Motown_Johnny]

5. When McCain pulled out of Michigan it was all but over.

There was no reasonable path to 270 for him without Michigan.

[Bluenorthwest]

6. Let's put it this way, Maddow was still saying 'talk me down Mccain might win' late on election day

but someone had arranged for McCain's night at a hotel ball room in his Party, and in ours, for Grant Park with a huge stage and high drama production. Neither thing happened in one day.

[Drunken Irishman]

7. It became apparent Obama was going to win in early October...

The race was pretty close through summer and much of September, however, by October, Obama started pulling in double-digit leads in some key polls (Gallup, CBS, NBC) and that's when it became clear he was probably going to win. There was only a brief moment, the weekend of Halloween, where McCain had a good polling day that led some to believe he was going to have a late surge. However, by the beginning of the next week, that surge evaporated and Obama once bumped his lead up in the polls.