Hillary's support depends so much on the perception that she's leading in the polls.

[reformist2]

It's a self-perpetuating loop of reasoning - or rather, unreasoning. To be fair, Hillary does have a solid core of real support behind her. But a sizeable chunk of the 50% she's getting in the polls are people who are just going along to get along, people who don't want to rock the boat, upset the applecart, etc. Also, everyone likes going with the winner, so there's the bandwagon effect going on here as well.

The trick for any challenger like Bernie, then, is more about figuring out how to wake people up from this sleep-cycle of mindless support. Along with specific issue-driven messages, Bernie & supporters need to promote broader messages such as thinking for oneself, the dangers of going along with the group, not caving in to peer pressure, etc. What's good is that daring to be different is an inherently democratic ideal - going along with the flow, trying to fit in with the crowd, those are essentially republican ideals.

We need to remind Democrats of who we are - we aren't the people who blindly march behind our leaders, we are the people who love upsetting the applecart - and it's time to do so yet again!

[Hoyt]

1. Some of us remember how our generation's Sanders fared - George McGovern and Landslide wasn't pretty

[Kentonio]

36. Yet you've conveniently forgotten Obama's own landslide?

[murielm99]

2. The "perception?"

Well, it is not a perception. She is leading!

And how do you know so much about the "sizable chunk" of people who are just going along? Did you poll them?

Maybe they are Democrats, who don't care to support a non-Democrat for the Democratic nomination.

Your post is laughable.

[1StrongBlackMan]

8. Have they Polled them? ...

Are you kidding ... It's far more accurate to just state something as fact.

[VanillaRhapsody]

3. Hahahahah

Perception she's leading.......okay....I am just imagining her actual lead...

[ucrdem]

4. If Bernie's message is "thinking for oneself, the dangers of going along with the group"

maybe he should consider joining an EST seminar. A political party is a collective enterprise and the Libertarian baloney belongs in the Daily Paul.

[Android3.14]

11. Bizarre comparison

Which candidate votes more often in line with ethical progressive values, and which candidate votes more often to support disastrous policy that benefits the 1-percent?

Bernie Sanders leads by example, not coercion.

[GoneFishin]

5. Agreed. If Joe Lieberman was running as the Dem party favorite they would vote for him? Name

recognition is a stupid reason to vote for a tepid candidate. But that's what it really comes down to, not good policies.

[Fumesucker]

7. Quite a few of them would *love* Joebituary for a candidate

[1StrongBlackMan]

9. If Lieberman were the Democratic nominee? ...

probably so ... especially, doubly, so, given the gop field.

[BlueMTexpat]

19. It is highly improbable that your hypothesis

will be put to the test in 2016. If ever.

Joementum's days are long over.

[VanillaRhapsody]

31. Is Joe Lieberman leading in ANY polls?

[brooklynite]

6. And this is analysis is based on.....?

[reformist2]

33. My OWN opinion! Imagine that!

[Android3.14]

10. Be brave, lead, stand up for your true ideals

No one has to go along to get along.

[stupidicus]

12. many of her supporters love her non-objecting to the TPP/distaste for single-payer/fondness for war

and hide behind turds like "unelectabilty" and whatnot to avoid the shame that should rightly be heaped upon them for supporting all that.

[Art_from_Ark]

14. Hillary is the "Ruby Tuesday candidate"

Goodbye, Ruby Tuesday
Who could hang a name on you?
When you change with every new day
Still I'm gonna miss you

[stupidicus]

15. lol

so true

[VanillaRhapsody]

32. You will...in 2024!

[tecelote]

13. It ain't over until it's over...

November 4, 2008

Hillary 44%
Obama 22%

But what's real fun is to look at the trajectory:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html

[madfloridian]

16. Keep Mark Penn away from her polls. Insist polls include greater % of young, new voters.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251782792

His plan for Hillary's strategy in 2007

We win women, lower classes, and Democrats (about 3 to 1 in our favor).

Obama wins men, upper class, and independents (about 2 to 1 in his favor).

Edwards draws from these groups as well.

Our winning strategy builds from a base of women, builds on top of that a lower and middle class constituency, and seeks to minimize his advantages with the high class democrats.

If we double perform with WOMEN, LOWER AND MIDDLE CLASS VOTERS, then we have about 55% of the voters.

Actually gearing a campaign to the lower classes and to one gender is a terrible idea.

A partial summary from later on in the memo:

1) Start with a base of women.

2) Add on a base of lower and middle class voters

Contest the black vote at every opportunity. Keep him pinned down there. We win women, lower classes, and Democrats (about 3 to 1 in our favor).

Avoid polling like the Monmouth poll.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251734441

The Monmouth University Poll
was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from October 22
to 25, 2015 with a statewide random sample of 400 Iowa voters drawn from a list of registered Democratic voters who voted in at least one of the last two state primary elections and indicate they are likely to attend the Democratic presidential caucuses
in February 2016. This includes 300 contacted by a live interviewer on a landline telephone and 100 contacted by a live interviewer on a cell phone, in English. Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. Final sample is weighted for age and gender based on state registration list information on the pool of voters who participate in primary elections. Data collection support provid
ed by Braun Research (field) and Aristotle (voter list). For
results based on the total sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributab
le to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in
conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls



Also Poll Demographics indicate that only 24% of those polled were age 49 and under.

Just those two categories alone leave out many Bernie Sanders supporters.

Many Bernie supporters are not previous voters. Polling only 24% of those under 49 leaves out way way too many.

[Lil Missy]

17. I see - we're just imagining Hillary's ahead by a large margin, and Sanders is pretend leading.

This is la la land, and gets more ridiculous by the day. HRC supporters don't know what they are doing, but Sanders supporters do know what they are doing.

Lotta Sanders supporters gonna feel really silly by Super Tuesday.

[BlueMTexpat]

18. It's all a media and pollster

conspiracy.

Her 415 endorsements are just "perception" too, I suppose. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-endorsement-primary/

It's an uphill battle for both Bernie and Martin. But frankly, I'm happy that both are still in the race. I believe that they are making it a better one and will continue to do so.

[alfredo]

20. There is an old saying in bike racing, "When the flag drops, the bullshit stops."

Fuck the polls this far out. The only polls I am concerned with is on primary day. That's when the bullshit stops.

Hillary has name recognition, Bernie doesn't have as much. I lean Democratic Socialist, so Bernie appeals to me. Hillary is too conservative, so is Obama and Billy C. I understand I won't get all that I desire with any candidate. I also understand that neither candidate will be able to work with a Republican congress, no matter how hard they try.

I'm not going to slam either candidate, I'm going to vote in our primary even though the contest will be won by then.

After the convention, I will plant the campaign sign of the winner, then gladly vote for the Democratic candidate.

I am a Democrat, I will support my Democratic candidate.

[MohRokTah]

21. .

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. I will let others decide if the two statements are complimentary or mutually exclusive.

Hillary's support depends so much on the perception that she's leading in the polls.

It's a self-perpetuating loop of reasoning - or rather, unreasoning. To be fair, Hillary does have a solid core of real support behind her. But a sizeable chunk of the 50% she's getting in the polls are people who are just going along to get along, people who don't want to rock the boat, upset the applecart, etc. Also, everyone likes going with the winner, so there's the bandwagon effect going on here as we

Still, with less than three months to go before the start of the nominating contests, half of Democratic primary voters say it is too early to say that their minds are made up about which candidate they will support. Clinton's backers, however, are more firm in their choice (54 percent) than those supporting Sanders (42 percent).

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/hillary-clinton-maintains-lead-among-democrats-cbs-newsny-times-poll/

[BlueCaliDem]

23. Thank you for injecting a reality check in this thread.

It is incredibly necessary.

[Nitram]

24. Reformist2, you make a lot of claims without any facts to back them up.

Why do Bernistas get so excited when Bernie's polls go up a little bit, but insist that Hillary's lead in the polls is not related to her true popularity? and I resent being accused of "blindly marching behind our leaders" because I would consider voting for Clinton.

[reformist2]

34. Because I have seen precisely ZERO real-world evidence of support for Hillary.

On the other hand, I've seen yard signs, bumper stickers, and people wearing t-shirts for Bernie out on the street.

[Nitram]

35. You sound like my right-wing mother,

who saw no signs of recession during the Reagan and Bush administrations. You must think the universe revolves around you if you think you have any idea how many Clinton supporters there are in the entire nation - based on your little neighborhood..

[Hydra]

25. You bring up a good point, and I'll ask a simple question to solidify it

If Hillary was polling behind right now, say, 35 to anyone else's 50, how many people would stick with her and say she's the best candidate?

I suspect she'd be dropped like a rock by 3/4 of the pool.

[brooklynite]

26. In 2008, she ended up getting as many votes as Obama...

...even after she fell behind in delegates.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. Excellent counterpoint, in my unvarnished opinion, of course.

EOM

[Agnosticsherbet]

27. Republcians felt the same way in 2012, so Mitt Romney found polls to create the perception he lead

in the polls.

Turned out, Mit's poll came up short, and all those polls showing Obama in the lead were accurate.

[JoePhilly]

29. Those stupid sleepy Clinton supporters are ruining everything!!!!

I shouldn't really need this

But I'll included it for the overly sensitive.

[RandySF]

30. It's also reality.

[Beacool]

37. I can't decide whether this is more insulting to Hillary or her supporters.

Yes, we are all brain dead lemmings that solely support Hillary because she's the better known commodity. If we weren't so dumb we would all support the, up to recently, Independent self described "Democratic Socialist" in his mid 70s.