Since comparisons to the 2008 Primary are popular, here's a map of the 2008 Primary results

[brooklynite]

Can someone give me a compelling argument as to which States Sanders can win?

I would argue the Clinton takes all the States she won in 2008 (green), PLUS all the southern States that Obama won (blue), PLUS Iowa (currently leading), Missouri, Connecticut, and Illinois. Even if Sanders sweeps the rest Caucus States, (unlikely; Clinton is gearing to contest Caucuses more strongly) that doesn't leave a lot of delegates.

[firebrand80]

1. He might win NH

I don't see a scenario that has him lasting past Super Tuesday

[SCantiGOP]

20. He doesn't last past SC

The margin will be so large it will be obvious that Sanders has no path to being competitive.
And I will proudly vote Clinton in the SC primary.

[BlueMTexpat]

2. Even in those states where Clinton lost,

there were factors in that loss that do not necessarily bode well for Bernie's candidacy.

Here is the 2008 Dem primary overview from my birth state of MT for example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montana_Democratic_primary,_2008

From the link:

Like many Western states, Montana was handily won by Barack Obama, although Hillary Rodham Clinton did considerably better here than in many other states in the area. According to exit polls, 91 percent of voters in the Montana Democratic Primary were Caucasians and they opted for Obama by a margin of 56-41 percent. Obama swept all age groups, socioeconomic classes and educational attainment ladders except senior citizens ages 65 and over who supported Clinton by a margin of 57-40. Obama won all ideological groups and voters from both major parties as well as Independents. Regarding religion, Clinton won Protestants by a margin of 52-45 while Obama won Roman Catholics by a margin of 52-46, other Christians by a margin of 56-41, and atheists/agnostics by a margin of 75-24.

Obama did well all throughout the state of Montana. His best performance was in Big Horn County which contains Native American reservations, where he received 78.09 percent, and Gallatin County, which contains Bozeman, the home of Montana State University. He was able to rack up the numbers by winning the more populous counties of Yellowstone County, which contains Billings, as well as Missoula County which contains left-leaning Missoula. Clinton performed best in some of the lesser populated and far more conservative rural counties in Eastern Montana, but also performed strongly in Silver Bow County, which contains Butte, as well as Deer Lodge County which contains Anaconda.

IMO, Bernie could do quite well in Gallatin and Missoula Counties, mainly because of the university populations there, and possibly in Silver Bow and Deer Lodge Counties even though Clinton did well there in 2008. These latter two will likely vote for whichever candidate their unions support. But the Native American support that Obama received may not automatically transfer to Bernie, especially as Native American Denise Juneau recently announced that she is running for Montana's at-large Congressional seat in 2016. http://blogs.edweek.org/edweek/campaign-k-12/2015/11/montana_chief_denise_juneau_an.html

Juneau will need the help of the Democratic establishment to win that seat. It will be an uphill battle for any Dem, although Amanda Curtis, who ran for MT's Senate seat at the last moment in 2014 might have been a real possibility as well. But Curtis is running for a seat in the MT legislature in 2016 instead. In any event, if Juneau ultimately endorses Hillary - as is more likely than not as MT Dem women generally like Clinton - that might also bring over significant NA support to Clinton as well.

[alcibiades_mystery]

3. Sanders won't win a single state

He won't even win Vermont.

He will drop out the morning after Super Tuesday, endorsing Clinton in the press conference.

[ucrdem]

5. Minutes later, Ellison and Grijalva will follow suit

if they wait that long.

[pinebox]

8. A single state? lol

[MohRokTah]

4. He'll win Vermont on Super Tuesday.

He may possibly win New Hampshire.

That's about it.

Since Vermont is on Super Tuesday, I expect the race to last that long.

[BlueCaliDem]

33. I'm with you on that. I don't see Vermont going for Hillary Clinton.

And New Hampshire is certainly a toss-up, but Hillary Clinton just might pull it off and surprise you and me both!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. On a Sanders blog I read he will win Texas!

EOM

[Gothmog]

13. Gary Mauro has some fun comments about Sanders chances in Texas

Gary Mauro filed this week for Hillary Clinton to be on the ballot in Texas. Here are some amusing comments made about Sanders https://www.texastribune.org/2015/11/24/clinton-ballot-texas-supporters-look-next-step/

On Tuesday, Mauro said he has nothing against Sanders, an independent senator, but questioned his electability as a self-described socialist. The label has gotten more attention in recent days following a speech last week in which Sanders offered a defense of his brand of "democratic socialism."

"I'm very glad that they're taking Texas seriously," Mauro said of Sanders campaign officials. "If Sanders is going to be a serious candidate — we don't know that yet, by the way — but if he's going to be a serious candidate, he's got to prove he can carry a really diverse state like Texas."

Mauro added, "I like everything he's saying about income inequality and equal rights and all of that — but the reality is that he's spending a lot of time explaining what a socialist is, and every time he has to explain that, I think he's narrowing his base."

Sanders will not do well in Texas

[WI_DEM]

7. He might do well in some caucuses

but as yet I don't see any scenerio where Bernie can get enough delegates to be nominated. If, for some unknown reason, Hillary implodes the party wouldn't get behind Bernie when Biden is sitting in the wings.

[Bread and Circus]

9. You are stating the obvious. Sanders has a huge uphill battle.

You seem like you are just trying to convince yourself. Why do Clinton supporters seem so afraid all the time?

[brooklynite]

11. Can I let you in on a secret?

This is a political blog; we discuss politics. That includes the potential outcomes of elections.

As to it being "obvious"? You might want to take that point up with the other Sanders supporters here.

[Bread and Circus]

12. Yeah actually I agree. I think we would all be better off being more honest.

And I definitely think we as Sanders supporters would serve the discussion better if they openly recognized the odds are unforavorable.

That doesn't mean give up or not to provide challenge.

On the other hand there many invconvenient truths Clinton supporters could own up to.

Can you name one?

[Gothmog]

14. Support the candidate of your choice but do not expect others to drink the koolaid

Right now Sanders is up to a 6% chance of being the nominee http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2016DemNomination That is better than the 5% chance he was being quoted as of yesterday

[Bread and Circus]

16. I am just happy he is polling as well as he does and raised as much money as he does. There is...

a real wideheld sentiment he is speaking to and it's good for our country.

We are out of Al Sharpton and Kucinich league politics.

Money speaks and Sanders has raised a hell of a lot.

20%, 30%, 40% polling is damn good even if he doesn't win.

[Gothmog]

22. Sanders campaign manager shares your views of what constitutes a success

Sanders is running to push his issues. Even Sanders campaign manager admitted that Sanders' main goal is to be considered to be a "serious" candidate. I keep reading articles hoping to see some signs of viability for the Sanders campaign in the general election. Here is a thread that is a good example. See http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251667157 if you read the last three paragraphs of the article cited in that thread, Sanders campaign manager does not outline a path to the nomination but a path to be a "serious" candidate.

If all goes according to plan, Sanders will have won enough delegates by mid-March to be a serious contender for the nomination. That would signal a shift for Sanders; it would be time to court the establishment. “Then we have to offer fundamental assurances to party leaders who say he’s a socialist. He’s been in the Congress 25 years and his program is not to replace the current system with socialism, it’s to revive the middle class.”

Sanders’s outsider campaign has been likened to Jesse Jackson’s insurgent campaign in 1988—it wasn’t until the Wisconsin primary in April that Michael Dukakis defeated Jackson. But Devine thinks the more apt analogy to today’s politics is 1984 when the combination of Gary Hart’s insurgency and Jackson’s coalition of minority voters together almost beat Walter Mondale. “Jackson never received support from the institutional party, but he demanded respect. If we register, as Jesse Jackson did, millions of people, that would be a huge lift for the party in Senate races.” And for whichever Democrat reaches the magic number of delegates next year to secure the nomination.

The idea that Sanders is good for the Democratic Party is a hard lesson for Clinton to appreciate in the heat of battle. But he’s got voters fired up and ready to go, and Democrats need that energy.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/10/12/bernie-sanders-s-strategist-this-is-how-we-win.html
The apparent goal of this campaign is not for Sanders to be the nominee but to be considered a serious candidate who might almost beat Hillary Clinton.

This article is silent on what Sanders intend to do in a general election contest in that it appears that Sanders campaign manager does not expect that Sanders will be the nominee.

I remember and voted in both the 1984 and 1988 campaigns and I think that Sanders will probably be a stronger candidate than Jesse Jackson.

[Bread and Circus]

23. Yes. Clinton's first best move would be to make Bernie an ally. Will she?

Or will she act as if she does not need him and his supporters? If she runs to the center and act like we are all fringe pinkos then.... it would be hard to go pull that lever.

Being kicked when you are down doesn't feel cool.

[Gothmog]

24. The Clinton campaign has not been attacking Sanders or his policies directly

There are several threads complaining about the Clinton campaign is now ignoring the primary process and is focusing on the general election. I think that this is smart and I doubt that there will be any direct attacks on Sanders by Clinton or the campaign directly. I have no doubt that the Clinton campaign will be reaching out to Sanders after the primary process is over.

For me, the key issue is control of the SCOTUS. I live in Texas where we just went through yet another election with the Texas voter id law. Both Clinton and Sanders have the same policy of imposing a litmus test for future SCOTUS justices and will only nominate SCOTUS justices who will vote to overturn Citizens United. Changing the composition of the SCOTUS is the only practical way of getting rid of Citizens United and both candidates are in accord on this concept.

I am hopeful that following the primary process, the party will be united given that each and every one of the possible GOP candidates are truly scary

[Jarqui]

10. This is politics

Three and a half months or more before a vote is a long time in politics. Look at 2008. Look at Vitter-Edwards contest this year. I could provide many examples.

Saw an article this morning referring to "what if Hillary slips on a banana peel and Trump/Carson become president?" What if Hillary slips on a banana peel before March 1? If that happens, Sanders can win any state. I think Sanders chances are currently better than than relying on Clinton slipping on a banana peel. So do the prediction sites.

If somehow Sanders can win Iowa, like Obama (though they're very different candidates and I'd concede it's more unlikely for Bernie), wild stuff could happen - it could turn into a contest. Hillary's got her supporters but she's got folks who don't like her.

I don't feel like giving Clinton anything at this moment. Having said that, she's way ahead in the polls for most states and ahead in all the states polled so far except NH. According to folks like 538.com, she's in better shape this time in the polls, with endorsements, with caucuses, etc. The prediction sites say she has about a 90% chance of winning the primary with Bernie a little less than 10%. That's probably a fair sober guess at this moment in time.

If she wins Iowa, my guess is that she'll run the table. If she doesn't, we could have some fun and excitement with Bernie.

But like I said above, "Three and a half months or more before a vote is a long time in politics" and I can still hope something good happens for Bernie.

[DCBob]

18. I believe Iowa is just two months to go.

Just around the corner.

[Sancho]

15. Your analysis is essentially correct except ....

Hillary is much further ahead in Congressional endorsements - she's on a record pace compared to all modern candidates.

Hillary is much further ahead in union endorsements than either Obama or she was in 2008.

Hillary's organization is stronger than in 2008, while the opponent is weaker.

There is no Kennedy/Oprah opposition that helped Obama in favor of Bernie.

Hillary will likely pick a VP candidate popular with immigrants, and demographics favor her heavily.

The main issue in 2008 was the economy. Now it's international relations. This plays into Hillary's strengths.

Hillary has more experience, money, and recognition than in 2008.

In short, it may be the landslide of the century. If DWS gets the DNC to support and elect the first woman President, she will also be positively seen historically. If Castro is the first hispanic VP, it will be the election of all time.

That's a real revolution - not just talk.

[workinclasszero]

25. That was a great read

Thank you and I couldn't agree more!

In short, it may be the landslide of the century. If DWS gets the DNC to support and elect the first woman President, she will also be positively seen historically. If Castro is the first hispanic VP, it will be the election of all time.

That's a real revolution - not just talk.

[MoonRiver]

32. I am getting older and am disabled, hopefully temporarily,

although I'm starting to wonder. The point is that I really want to see this amazing scenario realized! And it doesn't hurt that I am 100% supportive of Hillary's vision for our country!

[workinclasszero]

35. Well I hope your health improves

And I also share in your desire to see this all come true!

We can help it become reality and I intend do do so when the primaries finally get here.

[MoonRiver]

36. Thanks! I had spine surgery 4 months ago and am recovering very slowly.

I get discouraged. But I will do all I can to bring about a Hillary/Castro presidency!

[madfloridian]

42. "If DWS gets the DNC to support and elect the first woman President" That's not her job.

You said:

In short, it may be the landslide of the century. If DWS gets the DNC to support and elect the first woman President, she will also be positively seen historically. If Castro is the first hispanic VP, it will be the election of all time.

That's a real revolution - not just talk.

When did our party start cheering for the DNC chair to take sides?

That would mean that only some of us belong in the party, wouldn't it?

[BlueCaliDem]

34. Excellent and informative post, Sancho. Thank you!

Your post combined with brooklynite's 2008 primary map has put the biggest smile on my face in weeks!

I'm so excited! I hope and pray and hope and pray that she chooses Julian Castro as her VP running mate. He's perfect! He's smart, handsome, meticulous, an incredible speaker, a true gentleman, a diplomat, has a heart of gold and is handsome. Oops. Did I mention handsome twice?

It would be wonderful for Democrats and the Democratic Party to have a true Latino American as our next VP who's this close to becoming the first Mexican American for president of the United States in 2024.

[madfloridian]

43. " If DWS gets the DNC to support and elect the first woman President"..Not her job.

Surprised at you, Sancho.

You said:

In short, it may be the landslide of the century. If DWS gets the DNC to support and elect the first woman President, she will also be positively seen historically. If Castro is the first hispanic VP, it will be the election of all time.

Her job as DNC chair is to be neutral.

[Sancho]

44. I think her job includes putting a Democrat in the White House

Just like the first African American is a moment in history, the first woman President would be also. The first Hispanic on a winning Presidential ticket would be unique also. I hope the first woman President is a Democrat.

I seriously doubt that anyone as DNC Chair is truly neutral. No matter who the DNC Chair was for this primary, none of them would have been able to go all out for someone who had never been elected as a Democrat before, so Bernie should have expected to be a stepchild with the DNC the minute he decided to run. This election will be about women, immigrants, and minorities.

Maybe when DWS is replaced, Biden would be available. Who knows? If Gabrielle Giffords not been shot, or Elizabeth Warren been drafted to run; then you may have seen "equality" in treatment between Democratic, women candidates. As it is, DWS hooked her wagon to the Hillary wagon early on in this primary. That seems pretty clear.

[madfloridian]

45. Yes, she hooked her wagon to Hillary early on. That is NOT cause for celebration.

[Sancho]

46. I would simply put DWS in historical context...

without regard to anything else. She is the third woman chair of the DNC (I'd have to check that, but I think I heard it somewhere). I can't think of another lately. She was elected by the party and "approved" by the President.

If the first woman is elected and especially if the ticket included the first Latino - a hundred years from now the history books will likely give DWS a positive spin. Her bias for and against certain candidates would likely be forgotten.

Analyses of the election would probably agree that Hillary was favored by a woman chair of the DNC, but praise her for the win anyway.

It may or may not be a cause for celebration, but it would be really important for woman and Hispanics. That would be a turning point in US elections for sure.

[NurseJackie]

17. Best thread if the day!

Great post ... thank you!

[jfern]

19. There are certainly a number of winnable green states there

NH, California, Nevada, Ohio, WV, for starters.

[Iliyah]

27. California's green, who knew

California in full mode for HRC, thank you very much.

[BlueCaliDem]

30. California will go Hillary Clinton, just like in 2008.

Although we have the largest minority population of all States, California still preferred Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama. Only in the G.E. did he win our State (California will never give it's 55 electoral votes to a Republican ever again).

I'm looking forward to Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom to become our next Governor. He should've been Governor last time, but Californians preferred Jerry Brown - although I don't know why since Brown is a very moderate Dem and Newsom is a Liberal Democrat. Good thing we have liberal Democrats in our Assembly and Senate! It's why our economy had been turned around from huge deficits to huge surpluses in such a short period of time!

My two candidates for Head of State and Head of the State of California in 2016!

[tritsofme]

21. How many delegates does he earn per retweet/like?

How about the poll on feelthebern.com?

[Crystalite]

26. Too soon to tell. What happened then just cannot be applied to this season with reliability.

It will be interesting to see how it plays out, I'll give you that.

[2pooped2pop]

28. Clinton may very well win like u like to gloat about

But it sure as hell isn't going to help anyone but the rich. It's going to be more fuck ups for this country and it makes me sick.

[moobu2]

29. Bernie Sanders humongous ego won't let him drop out

Hope he faces reality after Super Tuesday and endorses Hillary and doesn't become a sad laughing stock. Wonder how his supporters will take him endorsing Hillary after they've demonized her so? Oh well, we will see.

[BlueCaliDem]

31. Excellent post, as always, brooklynite!

Seeing the 2008 primary map shows just how powerful Hillary Clinton really is. And I'm certain Republicans have that map, too. It's why they've had a hands-off approach for Bernie Sanders and have gone all out to demonize Hillary Clinton.

When top Republican operatives go to twitter to hashtag support memes for Bernie Sanders, you know who they're hoping to run their candidate against!

and rec'd!

[MineralMan]

37. Since you put it that way, with illustrations, it's clear

that you are correct. Sanders might win NH and VT. He'll also get a minority of the delegates from many other other states, of course. I don't see a path to the nomination for him, though, unless something changes dramatically between now and March 1. Once Super Tuesday is over, everything will be clear and plain for all to see.

[ericson00]

38. aside from Vermont, possibly New Hampshire,

maybe he can win Oregon, given its got a lot of the WTO-protestor types. Thats it.

[Hiraeth]

39. Most of America are celebrating the holidays. Things will

Not get really interesting until January.

[brooklynite]

40. So, all that "we need more early debates" complaining was pointless?

[Hiraeth]

41. Wonks like us loved it. They did give some exposure and lay ground work. Besides, I don't think

you ever saw -me- make that argument.

[Persondem]

47. Exactly!! K & R nt