Critical New Hampshire State Poll- Clinton 48% Sanders 44%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/151101_topline_NH_FINAL.pdf

[NurseJackie]

1. Ahead in NEW HAMPSHIRE??!! WOW!!

[brooklynite]

4. Actually...ahead in six of the last ten polls...

...the most charitable interpretation for Sanders is that it's gone from him leading to a tie.

[NurseJackie]

7. That's a pretty bad sign for him.

I'd always thought that NJ was a "gimme" for Bernie. But if he's struggling THERE, he'll struggle EVERYWHERE.

[BootinUp]

12. If you just take the polls from November its 3 out 4

where she is ahead. There was a lot of movement going on in October so I think the later polls will definitely paint a better picture.

[riversedge]

36. Hillary's workers can give themselves a pat on the back.....

Hillary for NH Retweeted
Mike Vlacich ?@mvlacich Nov 21

Canvassing Manchester for @HillaryforNH. #dayofaction

[riversedge]

32. and a million godziillion WHOW's @HillaryforNH's newest office in #Laconia! NH

Sam Kelly ?@samkelly16 3h3 hours ago Laconia, NH

Coming to you live from @HillaryforNH's newest office in #Laconia! An amazing new home for our team here in Belknap!

:large



Hillary for NH Retweeted
Kevin Groh ?@kgrohh 24h24 hours ago

Can't stop won't stop @HillaryforNH #DayOfAction ✊


:large

[NurseJackie]

33. That's lovely!

[DCBob]

2. Hugh!@11!

[NCTraveler]

3. Seems like she has been surging in a couple of states...

While also ticking up nationally. Great news.

[ucrdem]

5. This might be over before the first primary caucus.

In fact it probably is. That's good for Dems because we're in for a battle royale no matter who gets nominated and the sooner the primary skirmishes end the better.

[SunSeeker]

6. K & R

[redwitch]

8. Only 16% of the respondents are under age 30.

I don't know how surveys choose which respondents to include in their sampling but doesn't that seem unbalanced?

[SoapBox]

10. Yes.

The devil is ALWAYS in the details.

And so many of her "winning" polls are lame...missing all sorts of segments of voters.

[HubertHeaver]

23. Shhh don't warn them.

[riversedge]

35. No matter--Hilllary's Team is all over NH///

Hillary for NH Retweeted
Becky ?@beckyford23 23h23 hours ago

#hillaryfornh #dayofaction

[dsc]

39. according to this they have that about right

https://suburbanstats.org/population/how-many-people-live-in-new-hampshire

I get them having about 17.2 percent of the population in that age range. Given that age and rate of voting are highly positively correlated that is likely to be, if anything, an overestimate.

[Adrahil]

40. Keep in mind that responses are weighted to reflect the target population sample. nt

[JonLeibowitz]

9. What makes this poll critical, i.e. more important than others? Be specific. n/t

[DCBob]

15. NH is a must win for Bernie.

[JonLeibowitz]

16. No kidding. So are all NH polls labeled as "critical"?

[DCBob]

17. Just the ones with Hillary leading.

[JonLeibowitz]

18. .

[Stuart G]

11. The 2016 presidential primary will be held Tuesday, February 9, the latest it has been since 1996,

That leaves all of December, all of January, 8 days in February, and 9 days in November..

No matter who you are for...lots can happen during that time..

[DCBob]

13. The holidays will eat up alot of those days.

Things will definitely heat up in January... but by then it will probably be too late for Bernie.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. If your only hope is a systematic failure in polling, all in one direction you're in big trouble.

EOM

[DCBob]

22. Indeed.

They don't have much else.

[Adrahil]

41. That is true. But is IS crunch time. nt

[sheshe2]

14. KnR

[Helen Borg]

19. So, Hillary is toast?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. If toast is leading in forty nine out of fifty states I'm Brad Pitt

So Hillary is toast

If toast is leading in forty nine out of fifty states I'm Brad Pitt

[Attorney in Texas]

24. This poll (conducted Nov. 6-16) was released Monday. The more recent poll shows Sanders 45%, HRC 44%

The poll aggregation of Real Clear Politics excludes your poll which used a mixed on-line/phone methodology to poll only 190 Democrats (versus 228 Republicans) as conducted by Morning Consult for the pharmaceutical industry's Campaign for Sustainable Rx Pricing.

There is not a huge difference between the older poll you post and the more recent poll confirming Clinton at only 44%, just below Sanders but within the margin of error; that's not my point.

But given that this poll was released Monday and it included only 190 Democrats and it is not sufficiently reliable to meet the Real Clear Politics reliability threshold, why do you call it critical?

I certainly agree that a New Hampshire poll is more significant than, say, a national poll or a South Carolina poll or a Texas poll, etc., but this poll you tout seems to fall on the not-so-critical end of the spectrum.

Don't you agree at least a little?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. I agree that in all cases we should look at aggregate polling and not cherry picked polls

I agree that in all cases we should look at aggregate polling and not cherry picked polls, as the latter method is fraught with bias.


Aggregate polling:




http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html



http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-new-hampshire-presidential-democratic-caucus


suggests he is trailing in the one state on which is entire campaign hinges...If he loses IA and NH it is effectively over even if he refuses to give up the ghost at that time.

[Attorney in Texas]

27. Better yet, we can look at the aggregation of live cell and landline phone polls

I agree Sanders is the underdog in the primary and if he loses both Iowa and New Hampshire, then I cannot see a path for him to win the nomination.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. You are excluding scientific online with rigorous controls and weighting that are specifically ...

You are excluding scientific online polls with rigorous controls and weighting that are specifically designed to mirror traditional polls. You are also excluding ivr polls... You are including cell phone/landline polls that might or might not be flawed...

The bottom line is if you believe you can get the correct results by discarding polls you don't like there is nothing I can do to disabuse you of that notion.

[Alfresco]

29. It's going to be close in New Hampshire.

He may even win it.

[riversedge]

38. This Hillary help says NO WAY.......

Hillary for NH Retweeted
Joan Jacobs ?@jsjsjacobs Nov 21

Hillary supporter Portsmouth HQ canvass. #DayOfAction @HillaryforNH

[Alfresco]

42. I hope you are right.

Would be a crushing blow to the berners.

[azurnoir]

25. That margin of error git's ya every time + -4 %

[GeorgeGist]

30. Critical how?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

31. To the Vermont independent's success in the primaries, of course./nt

[MineralMan]

34. New Hampshire is still too close to call.

If we keep watching though, a trend might become visible. That's what I'll be doing - watching.

[riversedge]

37. you watch and these college students will do the needed footwork

Glad she has lots of help in NH


Hillary for NH Retweeted
BU for Hillary ?@BUforHillary Nov 21

Students from BU, @BCstudents4HRC, and @Wendys4Hillary after a successful morning knocking doors for @HillaryforNH!
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