2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumIowa PPP polling Clinton Still Well Ahead of Sanders Hillary 54% BS 34% MOM 7%
On the Democratic sideIowa PPP polling Clinton Still Well Ahead of Sanders Hillary 54% BS 34% MOM 7% Hillary Clinton continues to be the clear favorite in Iowa. Shes at 52% to 34% for Bernie Sanders and 7% for Martin OMalley. Sanders leads 47/40 with younger voters, but thats not enough to make up for Clinton holding a 64/20 advantage with seniors. She leads by pretty similar margins of 19 points with liberals at 56/37 and 22 points with moderates at 52/30. And she also has comparable leads with both women (21 points at 55/34) and men (15 points at 49/34). Clintons favorability rating is 73/19 while Sanders comes in at 65/23.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/12/trump-edges-cruz-in-iowa-his-supporters-think-japanese-internment-was-good-clinton-still-well-ahead-.html
book_worm
(15,951 posts)and has a 19-point lead with liberals? interesting.
yeoman6987
(14,449 posts)I think they get about 20 percent of the voters who actually do this because of the time commitment. Not saying this poll is wrong but it really is hard to predict Iowa.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Hillary 54% BS 34% MOM 7%
JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)Response to JonLeibowitz (Reply #3)
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JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)We know that some polls they run are paid for by Hillary's superPAC. That introduces trust issues.
sufrommich
(22,871 posts)polling is paid for by a campaign.
Response to JonLeibowitz (Reply #8)
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Historic NY
(37,453 posts)demosincebirth
(12,543 posts)JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)Response to JonLeibowitz (Reply #9)
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JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)I was only speaking of this poll.
Response to JonLeibowitz (Reply #13)
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JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)This is me being wary of polling companies which have recently accepted money from a campaign. Pretty simple.
I don't take well to calls for 'yes or no' questions as if I were in a court of law, so have a good day.
upaloopa
(11,417 posts)They offer a service. People pay for the service. Those people want to find out were things stand. If polls were not scientific, if they didn't follow best practiced the results would be worthless.
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)Which poll in the op was paid for by the Clinton campaign?
riversedge
(70,299 posts)Just asking-is that how it works?
FloridaBlues
(4,008 posts)Has anyone noticed that for past 3 months?
Chitown Kev
(2,197 posts)They like Bernie. But they prefer Clinton. It's that simple.
Scuba
(53,475 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)EOM
Scuba
(53,475 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)EOM
Scuba
(53,475 posts)... the definition of "voters" in this poll.
For example, if it only included people who voted in 2008 and 2012, then there's a whole bunch of "voters" who were excluded.
But then you knew that before you tried to avoid answering.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)Here is a link to aggregate polling. It contains a veritable potpourri of polls that apply a a panoply of methodologies:
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-iowa-presidential-democratic-primary
Perhaps there is a poll that meets the level of scientific scrutiny you have established.
I wish I could be of more assistance.
Scuba
(53,475 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)I supplied you with a veritable potpourri of polls that employ a myriad of methodologies:
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-iowa-presidential-democratic-primary
If you find them all wanting and believe a systematic failure in random sample polling exists there is nothing I can do to disabuse you of that notion.
I did answer it. Pollsters employ a veritable panoply of methodologies to divine who will vote in the contest they are measuring.
brooklynite
(94,727 posts)..unless, someone is paying HuffPo to rig the aggregation algorithm...
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)But don't tell anyone.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)is looking good
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)ismnotwasm
(42,008 posts)riversedge
(70,299 posts)HILLARY AND TERM HAVE THE MOJO
IOWA 12/15 PPP poll: Clinton > Sanders w/ men 15pts; liberals 19pts**; women 21pts; moderates 22pts
PublicPolicyPolling ?@ppppolls 1h1 hour ago
Clinton leads Sanders in Iowa by 15 pts with men, 19 pts with liberals, 21 pts with women, 22 pts with moderates: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/12/trump-edges-cruz-in-iowa-his-supporters-think-japanese-internment-was-good-clinton-still-well-ahead-.html
giftedgirl77
(4,713 posts)will go up?
Bleacher Creature
(11,257 posts)For the avoidance of doubt, I'm not claiming that Clinton is "inevitable'" nor am I claiming that it's "her turn." I realize full well that there is still a long way to go and that primary elections can turn quickly.
That said, PPP is a well respected pollster. Not only that, we generally know that Clinton has the far better field team in IA, and has hopefully learned from 2008 the importance of understanding the esoteric caucus rules.
Again, there's a long way to go, but a blowout in IA is a real possibility. If that happens, Sanders needs NH just to stay in the race, because SC is also going to be a blowout. And then, he needs to deal with the fact the the demographics of the Super Tuesday states heavily favor Clinton.
I'm not predicting anything yet, but I won't be surprised if this is all over within a month of IA.