2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumLookie here: TWO presidential electoral forecast maps that do NOT show Texas as solid red
Here: http://core.talkingpointsmemo.com/election/scoreboard
and
Here: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html
Yes, I know that those two maps in are in the minority and the majority of the maps show Texas as solid red - BUT I do love looking at THOSE two maps
For the folks that do not know...
In 2008 Obama received 'OVER 3.5 MILLION' votes from Texans, McCain received 'under 4.5 million'.
Obama won the majority of our largest Texas cities/counties: Austin/Travis, Dallas/Dallas, Houston/Harris, San Antonio, El Paso, etc.
The only big city/county that McCain won was Ft. Worth/Tarrant where there is a higher percentage of cowboy boot and hat wearing rednecks.
I still believe that Texas is now more PURPLE than it is red and someday, the Lord willing, I hope to still be alive when we turn BLUE
oldhippydude
(2,514 posts)maybe if we get the state back we can do something about the capital punishment record... it seems second only to football as a spectator sport..
nolabels
(13,133 posts)I don't hold much hope for Texas turning blue soon. Like Carter was the last one (1976) to win there. Would be fun though if Obama could get somewhere near Clinton's totals in 96 though
Tx4obama
(36,974 posts)I think some states might surprise us.
The last poll in Georgia showed that Obama is only 3 points behind Romney - seems to me that with the margin of error that means they are tied there
But the maps are still showing Georgia as 'pink'.
And there are another couple of states where Obama is pretty close to Romney but the maps show those states in Romney's favor, but I think they should be considered a toss-up instead.
If we get enough Democrats out to vote 9and enough GOPers are too depressed to get out and vote) I think we'll take a few of the states that no one thought we would
progressivebydesign
(19,458 posts)that has been happening for around 10 years. I see questions on City Data all the time from people asking about where to live in Texas that isn't hardcore republican. Most people end up in Austin, San Antonio, Houston, or Dallas, areas who ask that question. So eventually I think that Texas will get their Red map softened nicely to a blue or purple.
tomm2thumbs
(13,297 posts)Wondering if all the effects of big city demographics and visits to El Paso might be having an impact on things there.
If there is anyone who should hate flippy-floppy Mitt Romney, it would be the stand-your-ground Texans.
lovemydog
(11,833 posts)And remember that popular vote is important too. Millions in Texas vote blue, thanks to you and other good folks like you. As someone in a solid blue state right next door (New Mexico) I know it can be done. Particularly given the changing demographics and the education of younger people. Never give up. Maybe we'll see a blue Texas in your lifetime!
DFW
(54,447 posts)But Rick Perry and Louie Gohmert won't last forever.
Remember Ann Richards, Molly Ivins, even LBJ. Never forget that the Civil Rights Act and the Voting Rights Act were signed into law by a Texan who knew full well that the South "was lost for a generation" to the Democrats if he did. But LBJ felt that history would bear him out, and he was right.
oldsarge54
(582 posts)I was a Hillary delegate at the Democrat Convention in Austin, and it what there on the big screens when Hillary suspended her campaign. So I took a deep breath, swapped hats with an Obama supporter, and started one of the segments of a joint Obama/Hillary snake dance on the floor. Yep, there are liberals in Texas. Now, if we could only get the districting sorted out, maybe we could win a few.
jimlup
(7,968 posts)Guess that could be a prophetic statement as one San Antonio mayor comes instantly to mind.
tclambert
(11,087 posts)"A Sense of Waiting for Godot for Texas Democrats" http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/09/a-sense-of-waiting-for-godot-for-texas-democrats/
He says the population trends should lead to better Democratic prospects in the future, held back so far by low Hispanic voter turnout. The central quote of his blog: "A Democratic-leaning Texas may seem like a dream, but for years such a shift has appeared almost inevitable." Mr. Silver concludes Romney will win Texas this time around, and Republicans will likely win all statewide offices. However, in the future and in the cities and along the Rio Grande, Democrats have good prospects.
Gabby Hayes
(289 posts)It probably comes as no surprise that the Paulists never get over anything and will turn out just to spite Romney. The senate race could also lead to a good deal of ballot splitting because many voters may only know Ted Cruz from David Dewhurst's ad portrayals during the GOP primaries and runoff. Those ads left voters with plenty of reasons to consider an alternative like Democrat Paul Sadler. Sadler is a very thoughtful man and orator who may surprise Texans with his knowledge of the state and sense of direction. The Democratic plank calling for the legalization of marijuana will get more results if they put forth an actual plan answering the main questions everyone will have.
davidn3600
(6,342 posts)I don't believe Santorum had dropped out yet when that poll was taken.
No one has done any polling in Texas since May, that poll showed a Romney lead of 20 pts.
Georgia would go blue well before Texas does.
Jeff In Milwaukee
(13,992 posts)Maybe not this cycle, but it's coming just as sure as the dawn. Nowhere in America are the demographics so stacked against grumpy white men.
ncgrits
(916 posts)But of course you know that for every liberal democrat in Texas there are 3 brazillion assholes and things will never change.
Y'all rock!
We're working like crazy to make NC go from Tar Heel blue to Duke blue. (And you have no idea how much it hurts to say it that way!)