MA SENATE RACE: Warren + 6 (LV), +12 (RV)

[Tarheel_Dem]

The survey, which the Polling Institute conducted Sept. 6-13 in partnership with The Republican newspaper of Springfield, MA and MassLive.com, found that Warren is relying on sizable support from Democrats and women to overcome Brown’s lead among independent voters and men.

Of the 444 likely voters interviewed for the survey, 50 percent said they would support Warren if the election was held today, 44 percent said Brown, and six percent said they were undecided. Among the larger sample of 545 registered voters, Warren led Brown by 12 points, 53 percent to 41 percent, with six percent undecided. The margin of sampling error for the sample of likely voters is plus or minus 4.6 percentage points, and the margin of error for the sample of all registered voters is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/charlie-mahtesian/2012/09/poll-warren-leads-brown-by-in-mass-135681.html

[TroyD]

1. and Warren also leads in the PPP poll to come out later tonight

Elizabeth Warren leads in the MA-Sen poll we will release tonight. Last month we found her down by 5 pts.

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/247451449250955264

[Cha]

2. GO ELIZABETH WARREN!

Thanks Tarheel!

[Tarheel_Dem]

3. Hey Cha! I couldn't believe it when I heard it on MSNBC, so I had to go looking.

Looks like the convention might have given her a bump. I thought her speech was effective, and apparently the people of MA thought so as well. GO ELIZABETH!!!! If we take this one back, I think we hold our majority.

[TroyD]

4. And there are now 3 polls that show Warren on the rise

The Kimball poll earlier in the week, this NE University poll, and the PPP poll to come later tonight.

So it looks like the NE University poll is not an outlier.

[Cha]

5. Elizabeth has The Fighter and his Manager on her side too!

And, We have a Democratic former Congresswoman running for US Senator here in Hawai'i. Mazie Hirono is running against a former repub gov for 8 years who's trying to Etch A Sketch her record with tons of money ads(so I'm told..thankfully I don't have a tv).

Mazie got the Flight Attendants-CWA (AFA) Endorsement!

HONOLULU – U.S. Democratic Senate nominee Mazie Hirono welcomed the endorsement of the Association of Flight Attendants-CWA (AFA) today. AFA is the world’s largest flight attendant organization, representing nearly 60,000 flight attendants at more than 21 airlines.

“Improving the safety and work conditions of flight attendants goes hand-in-hand with improving passenger safety,” said Hirono. “This also relates to my legislation to increase tourism – the VISIT USA Act – which would create an estimated 6,000 jobs here in Hawaii alone. As passengers feel safer and safer on planes, especially during long-distance and international flights, they will be more inclined to visit places like Hawaii.”

http://www.mazieforhawaii.com/what/press-releases/mazie-hirono-flies-high-with-latest-campaign-endorsement

[Tarheel_Dem]

6. "She's got heart. She's got guts, and she's not gonna back down." 'Nuff said.

[TroyD]

7. Do you think there has been a gender bias in Massachusetts?

I had never thought about this until this year when someone told me, but Massachusetts has never elected a woman Governor or a woman Senator.

Is this just coincidence, or has there been an institutional bias against women being elected to higher office in MA (other than in the State legislature) ?

It's odd that other more conservative states have had women Governors and Senators (eg. Texas, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Arizona etc), but not in Massachusetts.

Hopefully Elizabeth Warren will put a stop to this historical pattern and make history.

[Tarheel_Dem]

8. The article says Elizabeth has mounted this comeback due to Dems and women.

Dems & women returning to the fold, has allowed Warren to overtake Brown's advantage among men and Independents.

[TroyD]

11. Which is good

But in order to be assured of closing the deal, we need to improve Warren's numbers with Independents. She may not be able to beat Brown in that category, but if she can peel away just a few percent, victory will be more likely than going into Election Day with a 50/50 Toss-Up.

[tallahasseedem]

9. OMG!

I'm trying not to freak out right now, but OMG!!!

Go Elizabeth!

[fujiyama]

10. John Kerry was helped in '96 by Bill Clinton's coattails

Maybe Obama can help bring Warren across the finish line. It looks like having her as a featured speaker helped tremendously. And Clinton is really popular. Her campaigning undoubtedly will help there. She'd be a great addition to the Senate.

[Tarheel_Dem]

13. Let's hope you're right. I've wondered why Elizabeth continued to struggle given the....

president's popularity, and double digit lead in the state. I'm hoping the "coattails" will extend to other races as well. Since this poll was taken after the conventions, I can only assume that her appearance at the DNC brought some folks off the fence.

[helpisontheway]

12. What?????

WOOOOOOOOOOOOHOOOOOOO!!!!! Hope she is able to win Ted Kennedy's seat back! This news just made my name. Hope it is a trend. Looking forward to other polls from MA. Oh and I can't wait to see Joe Scarborough's face tomorrow morning. He is so sure that the Republican will win that seat again because he is a good ol boy in a pick up truck. Go Elizabeth!

[TroyD]

14. RCP has finally updated their Warren vs. Brown average:

She will probably move up a little more later tonight when PPP release their poll. It is expected to confirm the Western NE University poll that showed Warren ahead.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/ma/massachusetts_senate_brown_vs_warren-2093.html