G.O.P. Race Has Hallmarks of Prolonged Battle (Nate Silver)

[morningfog]

February 8, 2012, 3:03 am
G.O.P. Race Has Hallmarks of Prolonged Battle
By NATE SILVER

Whatever your perspective on how likely Mitt Romney was to lose the Republican nomination race prior to Tuesday evening, it should be acknowledged that he had about the worst results conceivable.

In Minnesota, a state which Mr. Romney carried easily in 2008, he has so far failed to win a single county — and got just 17 percent of the vote. That put him 27 points behind Rick Santorum, and 10 points behind Ron Paul, who finished in second.

Missouri is a less important result since its beauty contest primary did not count for delegate selection and since turnout was understandably low there. But Mr. Romney lost all 114 counties in Missouri — and the state as a whole by 30 points, far more than polls projected.

Then there was Colorado, a state that has reasonably similar demographics to Nevada, which Mr. Romney carried easily on Saturday. Colorado has somewhat fewer Mormon voters than Nevada, which hurts Mr. Romney — but it has somewhat more wealthy ones, which favors him. The betting market Intrade gave Mr. Romney about a 97 percent chance of winning Colorado entering the evening. But he lost the state by 5 points to Mr. Santorum.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/08/g-o-p-race-has-hallmarks-of-prolonged-battle/

This was pure enjoyment to read. Romney can't win the midwest states, Romney can't win over the conservatives.

[Warren Stupidity]

1. Perhaps more importantly Rmoney will have to veer even further loon-right.

Which means he will be on the record with a whole lot of rightloon nonsense that he will have to desperately walk back as soon as the convention is over.

[morningfog]

2. Which will also contradict a lot of his statements from time as Gov of MA.

[LongTomH]

16. I don't think he can 'walk back!'

He's burned his bridges and shot the wounded. He now lives entirely in the alternate reality of the far right (Actually, I don't think there is a near right any more!).

[dash_bannon]

3. The Republicans are vulnerable

The GOP since Reagan have been solidly unified behind the idea of low taxes and getting rid of abortion. It seems now that the GOP is splitting apart. This is a good thing for democracy in America. A drawn out primary means they have no solid base or support within their party.

[Rowdyboy]

4. Thanks....what a pleasure to read

Just makes me feel good all over.

[JHB]

5. What hath Ron wroght?

And Newt and Rush, George and George*, and Lee, Roger, and Karl.

Thirty years of feeding fears and resentments, of scorning compromise as treachery, opposition as treason, of IOIYAR, of creating an echo chamber so impervious that everyone inside keeps breathing and rebreathing their own hot air, etc., etc., etc.

When you burrow into a mountain of your own dung, you don't get to complain about the smell.

[MACARD]

6. Answer me this one question

Romney is considered to be more of a moderate. while being a moderate he cannot really rally the Conservative base, and they say they don't like him and that Gingrich and Santorum have better chance of winning, but Newt and Rick a right wing and liable to alienate the moderates, Given Romney has moderate support, and the nature of the GOP base... wouldn't they vote for Romney over Obama?

what the republican base doesn't understand is that whichever candidate they pick they will be supporting him in the election, if they were smart they would encourage the Moderate so that their candidate can win over the swing voters. seems like a bunch of Ignorance to me but then the GOP party is built upon ignorance isn't it?

[kemah]

8. GOP believe that moderation is the reason they lose.

McCain, Dole, Bush Sr. second term, Ford all were moderates that lost. Bush Jr. played to both sides of the fence, appealed to moderates with that "compassion conservatism" nonsense and winked at the hard core. Romney is trying to play the same game but the voters have become wise to that.
The GOP base hates to compromise, hates moderation, and really want a small states rights government. Even though the red states depend more on government money than the blue states. They are the least informed, and you can see their slogan "More GOD less government" except of course when natural disaster hits, then they line up very quickly to get that evil socialist FEMA money. I do not see them praying for GOD to fix their roof or clean the streets.
I live in Ron Paul's Galveston County and they were lining up to get government FEMA money the same agency that Ron wants to eliminate. Even Ron Paul got his share of FEMA money to fix his house.
I point that out to voter around here, next time refuse FEMA and demand a tax cut. They will not and they know it.

[grantcart]

9. welcome to DU

[yellowcanine]

13. Republicans do this sort of thing sometimes. In 1964 they knew that Goldwater had no chance against

LBJ. And Rockefeller, while he might also have lost, at least had a chance. But Rockefeller was too liberal and the conservative wing of the party hated him so they packed the caucuses and primaries for Goldwater. Moderate Republicans then threw their support to Bill Scranton of PA in an effort to stop Goldwater at the convention but it was too late. LBJ of course crushed Goldwater in the general election, only 4 years after Kennedy barely beat Nixon.

[corkhead]

20. Nelson Rockefeller speaks to the far right for me...

[yellowcanine]

22. That was 1976 and he was flipping off a heckler. Don't know if he was a wingnut or not.

Rockefeller got heckled by all kinds of people, particularly after Attica.

[Taverner]

7. Let the GOP $$$ burn, baby, burn!!!

[Auggie]

18. +1

[grantcart]

10. 'bout time Nate.

Isn't it clear yet that no one will get the 51% before the convention?

[azureblue]

11. and an important point

(and the GOP knows this): it will cost a lot of money that could be spent in the Presidential race, and the mud slinging (as it has already) could make the GOP primary winner unpalatable to voters. The more mud they sling at each other, the more they lie about each other, the more money they spend attacking each other, the less they have left for the final race. And they give President Obama more fodder for his campaign, too. I hope they waste all their resources and burn themselves out.

[nxylas]

15. That's pre-Citizens United thinking

The Republicans no longer have any reason to care about that, as they will always have a bottomless well of money to draw from,

[LongTomH]

17. Sadly, that's true!

The Koch bros. alone have pledged $100 billion to defeat Obama. I understand the total pledged is now half a billion. Expect a tough fight, even with a GOP candidate like Mitt that nobody loves!

[progressoid]

12. Tee hee hee...

This is fun!

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

14. I have become so obsessed with these primaries! This is the best Republican one ever!

Realizing that Mittens will likely still be the nominee, it's just so much fun observing the prolonged struggle to the finish line.

[Old and In the Way]

23. Need more debates!

Lets talk about forced childbirths and banning contraception, more Gawd, less government!

[robbob]

19. I love the way the media says things like

"but it has somewhat more wealthy ones, which favors him." Even our great NPR "left wing" media will trot out talking points like this but no one asks the question "WHY do the wealthy favor GOP candidates like Romney?".

And even though the answer is obvious the Freepers and tea party middle class or even struggling to make ends meet class will still line up to vote for a party that is "favored" by the 1%-ers.

[certainot]

21. maybe establishment (vote counting apparatus) is switching away from the mormon (non-christian)