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2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumPPP (D) Iowa Poll-Clinton 46% Sanders 40% O'Malley 8%
Things are tightening up on the Democratic side. Hillary Clinton now leads
Bernie Sanders 46/40, with Martin O'Malley at 8%. Clinton is down 6 points
from her 52% a month ago, while Sanders is up 6 points from his previous 34%
standing. The increased tightness of the race has a lot more to do with Sanders
than it does Clinton. Clinton's favorability is 72/22 this month after being 73/19
last month, a minimal change. But Sanders' favorability has shot up from a 65/23
spread to now 79/13 so his popularity is clearly growing as the voting nears. The
good news for Clinton is that 78% of her voters are firmly committed to her,
compared to 64% of Sanders' who say the same for him. Clinton's lead goes up to
53/39 among those who have their minds totally made up.
O'Malley's continued presence in the race is helping Clinton. In Iowa we find his
supporters would prefer Sanders over Clinton 43/20, and in New Hampshire
they prefer Sanders over Clinton 47/13. So to some extent O'Malley is helping to
split the anti-Hillary vote.
There are some pretty big demographic divides in the Democratic race. Clinton
leads 52/36 with women, but Sanders is up 46/39 with men. Clinton leads 64/26
with seniors, but Sanders is up 55/33 with younger voters. Clinton's 47/38
advantage with middle aged voters pretty well mirrors the overall numbers.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_IA_11216.pdf
Bernie Sanders 46/40, with Martin O'Malley at 8%. Clinton is down 6 points
from her 52% a month ago, while Sanders is up 6 points from his previous 34%
standing. The increased tightness of the race has a lot more to do with Sanders
than it does Clinton. Clinton's favorability is 72/22 this month after being 73/19
last month, a minimal change. But Sanders' favorability has shot up from a 65/23
spread to now 79/13 so his popularity is clearly growing as the voting nears. The
good news for Clinton is that 78% of her voters are firmly committed to her,
compared to 64% of Sanders' who say the same for him. Clinton's lead goes up to
53/39 among those who have their minds totally made up.
O'Malley's continued presence in the race is helping Clinton. In Iowa we find his
supporters would prefer Sanders over Clinton 43/20, and in New Hampshire
they prefer Sanders over Clinton 47/13. So to some extent O'Malley is helping to
split the anti-Hillary vote.
There are some pretty big demographic divides in the Democratic race. Clinton
leads 52/36 with women, but Sanders is up 46/39 with men. Clinton leads 64/26
with seniors, but Sanders is up 55/33 with younger voters. Clinton's 47/38
advantage with middle aged voters pretty well mirrors the overall numbers.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_IA_11216.pdf
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PPP (D) Iowa Poll-Clinton 46% Sanders 40% O'Malley 8% (Original Post)
DemocratSinceBirth
Jan 2016
OP
Me neither now, too many factors in play. Weather on caucus night being one of them.
emulatorloo
Jan 2016
#14
On caucus night couldn't supporters of O'Malley switch to another candidate if their
book_worm
Jan 2016
#15
Iliyah
(25,111 posts)1. K & R
Iliyah
(25,111 posts)2. Plus, PP is usaully on the mark!
LexVegas
(6,088 posts)3. But...millennials. nt
onehandle
(51,122 posts)4. None of the millennialis in my office is registered to vote. nt
morningfog
(18,115 posts)5. Sounds like you need to register some voters.
LexVegas
(6,088 posts)6. You probably have landlines in your office. nt
Sancho
(9,070 posts)8. Young people don't vote...
Iliyah
(25,111 posts)7. I know, and I have come to the conclusion that HRC will win IA
and probably NH, but ya'know that corporate media wants a horse race. Remember Cruz beating T-rump by double figures? Well guess what, T-rump is now ahead. . . .
And PP being the most accurate in 2012, I trust them.
sufrommich
(22,871 posts)9. Jeez,these polls are all over the place. nt
cali
(114,904 posts)10. They really are. I have no idea how Iowa will go.
sufrommich
(22,871 posts)11. Both Quinnipiac and PPP are well respected polls too.nt
emulatorloo
(44,164 posts)14. Me neither now, too many factors in play. Weather on caucus night being one of them.
Brutally cold in IA currently.
Aerows
(39,961 posts)13. They really are
It's a toss up as far as I'm concerned.
oasis
(49,398 posts)12. Good numbers. Getting near time to close the deal.
book_worm
(15,951 posts)15. On caucus night couldn't supporters of O'Malley switch to another candidate if their
candidate doesn't meet a certain threshhold? If so, that might be more helpful for the Sanders campaign than Clinton.
Starry Messenger
(32,342 posts)16. k&r
Skidmore
(37,364 posts)17. K&R