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Mufaddal

(1,021 posts)
Fri Feb 12, 2016, 01:41 PM Feb 2016

First Nevada Poll In Weeks Shows Sanders Tied With Clinton

A Washington Free Beacon/TargetPoint Consulting poll released Friday shows between Democratic presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Sen. Bernie Sander (I-VT) in Nevada. It's the first poll conducted in the state this year.

The poll showed support for Clinton and Sanders tied at 45 percent of respondents.

This is the first poll of Democratic voters in the state by this pollster, as well as the first conducted there since December. Most previous polling showed Clinton holding a double-digit lead in the state, indicating a collapse in her support consistent with the rapid tightening of the race following Clinton’s narrow win in Iowa and substantial loss in New Hampshire.

There has been so little polling in Nevada that there is no TPM PollTracker Average for the state.

The poll was carried out from Feb. 8-10 with a population sample of 1,236 likely Democratic voters and a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.

Link: http://talkingpointsmemo.com/polltracker/sanders-clinton-tied-nevada
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First Nevada Poll In Weeks Shows Sanders Tied With Clinton (Original Post) Mufaddal Feb 2016 OP
Bernie WILL win Nevada. Period. floriduck Feb 2016 #1
To my thinking the issue remains getting younger voters out Mufaddal Feb 2016 #4
I doubt SC is as bad as people are thinking. draa Feb 2016 #8
The loss in New Hampshire and even just close calls in Iowa and Nevada will begin to JDPriestly Feb 2016 #29
I've been thinking the same thing. Also the big donors don't have any party loyalty. A Simple Game Feb 2016 #42
Many are backing several at a time. Dustlawyer Feb 2016 #57
Yup a lot of them hedge their bets. n/t A Simple Game Feb 2016 #59
The main memory I have in listening to sound bytes post New Hampshire greiner3 Feb 2016 #62
after what her supporters pushed yesterday PatrynXX Feb 2016 #44
According to yesterdays Washington Post she is already in trouble--bigtime Left Coast2020 Feb 2016 #45
I read something like that as well. draa Feb 2016 #49
Clyburn's endorsement of Clinton will sway older voters only. Millennials are voting for Sanders. in_cog_ni_to Feb 2016 #12
South Carolina has a lot of new population roguevalley Feb 2016 #23
I heard that. Also, SC has more than 230,000 voters 24 years old and under! in_cog_ni_to Feb 2016 #30
Agreed Mufaddal Feb 2016 #51
But Clinton is fine with that... Helen Borg Feb 2016 #37
These were her firewall... SoLeftIAmRight Feb 2016 #2
It's why you haven't heard a peep ut them about Nevada recently, only South Carolina over and over. Erich Bloodaxe BSN Feb 2016 #3
TYT carried a segment about this Mufaddal Feb 2016 #6
They're even downplaying SC now. jeff47 Feb 2016 #17
Yeppers! Helen Borg Feb 2016 #38
Not one peep from the corrupt corporate owned MSM about this poll today! in_cog_ni_to Feb 2016 #61
There ya go. The reason for the Kitchen Sink! TIED IN IOWA, LOSS BY 23 POINT LANDSLIDE, AND A in_cog_ni_to Feb 2016 #5
It ended up being by 23% in NH Autumn Colors Feb 2016 #11
Thank you! I didn't know that! That's even better. in_cog_ni_to Feb 2016 #14
Washington Free Beacon is a right wing rag so take it with a big Jarqui Feb 2016 #7
That's fair Mufaddal Feb 2016 #10
Here's a link to that poll ... Jarqui Feb 2016 #16
Thanks! Mufaddal Feb 2016 #20
Now 538 is saying 50/50 odds too Mufaddal Feb 2016 #21
That and the above is a heck of a shift from the prior polling Jarqui Feb 2016 #24
HOLY.......................... CoffeeCat Feb 2016 #9
Somehow I missed the fact that Latinos broke heavily for Sanders in Iowa. artislife Feb 2016 #15
I have some incredible info on that from a local LULAC Iowa head. CoffeeCat Feb 2016 #22
I always look forward to your posts! artislife Feb 2016 #25
You too, artislife CoffeeCat Feb 2016 #48
We have a huge Latino population working as volunteers for Bernie's campaign in CA. Live and Learn Feb 2016 #58
When I was there last month canvassing marlakay Feb 2016 #13
Thank you for canvassing Mufaddal Feb 2016 #18
Bernie "The Real Deal" Sanders! AzDar Feb 2016 #19
Great news indeed. K&R n/t 99th_Monkey Feb 2016 #26
This is an interesting read on the debate and Latinos artislife Feb 2016 #27
Wait, are you suggesting that Latinos may not want to vote for their abuela? Mufaddal Feb 2016 #33
Great news, and a pleasant surprise. nt Zorra Feb 2016 #28
This is yuge! hay rick Feb 2016 #31
Is Nevada a caucus or a primary? boomer55 Feb 2016 #32
Caucus Mufaddal Feb 2016 #35
Caucus, I think... Helen Borg Feb 2016 #36
Oh ya, thats right. I wonder how many ringers they brought in for this one. CentralMass Feb 2016 #53
We have caucuses on the precinct level that choose delegates to a statewide convention. totodeinhere Feb 2016 #60
Holy smokes! That is great. Helen Borg Feb 2016 #34
50/50 Hydra Feb 2016 #63
K&R CharlotteVale Feb 2016 #39
great news. k and r bbgrunt Feb 2016 #40
BOOYA! frylock Feb 2016 #41
Excellent! TIME TO PANIC Feb 2016 #43
TPM has... DUbeornot2be Feb 2016 #46
k/r AtomicKitten Feb 2016 #47
Kicked and recommended! Let's all work to get Bernie's numbers up to +20% like New Hampshire. Enthusiast Feb 2016 #50
Yes! Mufaddal Feb 2016 #52
Thanks! leftcoastmountains Feb 2016 #54
IMO - HRC as the 'presumptive favorite' has to win by 5-10% or more else NoMoreRepugs Feb 2016 #55
Now that (!) is excellent news! eom Betty Karlson Feb 2016 #56
 

floriduck

(2,262 posts)
1. Bernie WILL win Nevada. Period.
Fri Feb 12, 2016, 01:46 PM
Feb 2016

SC is up for grabs and he will close a big gap but Clybern's endorsement will sway a large block of SC voters. There is a lot on Jim's shoulders and he damn well knows it.

Mufaddal

(1,021 posts)
4. To my thinking the issue remains getting younger voters out
Fri Feb 12, 2016, 01:51 PM
Feb 2016

And the endorsement game tends to matter a lot less to them as a bloc, particularly when they see the conditions around them and that their elected "representatives" haven't done much at all to improve them. In other words, when there is a big disconnect between people (younger people in particular) and government, government-side endorsements don't tend to matter quite as much, and in some cases they may even hurt. Which of course might have something to do with this: https://theintercept.com/2016/02/11/congressional-black-caucus-hillary/

Now, with middle-aged and older voters, yes, I expect endorsements like CBCPAC and Clyburn to carry a lot more weight. So the emphasis needs to be on strengthening up the areas where you're already strong, and not spending a lot of time on the areas where you're far behind. In this case, that means getting out the youth vote in massive numbers wherever possible.

draa

(975 posts)
8. I doubt SC is as bad as people are thinking.
Fri Feb 12, 2016, 02:00 PM
Feb 2016

Not saying we'll win but I seriously doubt Bernie is down by double digits. She may win in SC but I don't think it will be a New Hampshire type win. She needs to win SC by a LARGE margin. If it's less than 10% look out because she's in trouble.

JDPriestly

(57,936 posts)
29. The loss in New Hampshire and even just close calls in Iowa and Nevada will begin to
Fri Feb 12, 2016, 02:48 PM
Feb 2016

hurt Hillary's fundraising ability.

Corporations and rich people don't like to invest in losing bets.

That is one of the downsides of corporate money in politics.

Let's end the sale of offices. Let's end that kind of corruption.

Hillary's campaign coffers will soon be feeling the Bern!

A Simple Game

(9,214 posts)
42. I've been thinking the same thing. Also the big donors don't have any party loyalty.
Fri Feb 12, 2016, 03:21 PM
Feb 2016

If they don't think Hillary can win the Democratic nomination they will start saving their money to use for buying the Presidency for the Republican nominee.

 

greiner3

(5,214 posts)
62. The main memory I have in listening to sound bytes post New Hampshire
Fri Feb 12, 2016, 09:50 PM
Feb 2016

Is from her asking supporters for a $1 donation. WTF

PatrynXX

(5,668 posts)
44. after what her supporters pushed yesterday
Fri Feb 12, 2016, 03:25 PM
Feb 2016

I can't really call her a Conservadem / Conservative anymore. I think she's actually Tea Party. Because only the Tea Party woulda pulled a stunt so stupid it was bound to backfire. No Self respecting Republican would commit political suicide in such manner

Left Coast2020

(2,397 posts)
45. According to yesterdays Washington Post she is already in trouble--bigtime
Fri Feb 12, 2016, 03:25 PM
Feb 2016

Just having it out there is likely to really let a lot of air out of her campaign. If Bernie does indeed win Nevada, then she should start turning the lights outs.

draa

(975 posts)
49. I read something like that as well.
Fri Feb 12, 2016, 03:52 PM
Feb 2016

Her SPAC Priorities USA is getting into the race way early.

That pac was supposed to enter when the general election began but considering how bad she's doing they've already entered the fray. That can't be a good sign to anyone associated with her campaign.

in_cog_ni_to

(41,600 posts)
12. Clyburn's endorsement of Clinton will sway older voters only. Millennials are voting for Sanders.
Fri Feb 12, 2016, 02:05 PM
Feb 2016

MSNBC's Joy Reid, is in SC today and not one young person she talked to (AA) were voting for Clinton. Not one. She talked to an older AA gentleman in a barbershop who said all the young kids he has talked to are voting for Bernie and most of the older people are with Clinton...but, he said those older people need to think about what the youth needs in the future and vote for the person who is going to help them the most!

Another older lady said she's listening to what the young people NEED and want....Bernie.

Joy also noted the Bernie voters cut-off age is closer to age 55!

So, I think Bernie is going to win SC. HE'S ON FIRE THERE!

PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE

in_cog_ni_to

(41,600 posts)
30. I heard that. Also, SC has more than 230,000 voters 24 years old and under!
Fri Feb 12, 2016, 02:51 PM
Feb 2016

MSNBC said that number is 260,000, but a SC news site said 230,000, so I'll go with that. Millennials are NOT going to vote for Clinton, so I'm not seeing how she's going to win SC. The state has a HUGE millennial population.

Throw in Independents, Women, men, some boomers...the math isn't adding up to a Clinton win.

I think her "firewall" is a facade.

PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE

Mufaddal

(1,021 posts)
51. Agreed
Fri Feb 12, 2016, 03:55 PM
Feb 2016

The media does not understand that endorsements have little impact now (especially establishment endorsements) on younger voters. It's just not as relevant.

Speaking of which, MSNBC sent a reporter out today in SC and she couldn't find a single black Clinton voter:



Yeah, the guy they interviewed wasn't especially helpful, but the woman at the end was great.

Erich Bloodaxe BSN

(14,733 posts)
3. It's why you haven't heard a peep ut them about Nevada recently, only South Carolina over and over.
Fri Feb 12, 2016, 01:51 PM
Feb 2016

They must have done some internal polling on Nevada showing that collapse.

Mufaddal

(1,021 posts)
6. TYT carried a segment about this
Fri Feb 12, 2016, 01:52 PM
Feb 2016

Saying basically that pollsters know the Nevada process is too unpredictable to even bother attempting an accurate poll--it can't be done. But who knows. We'll find out soon enough.

jeff47

(26,549 posts)
17. They're even downplaying SC now.
Fri Feb 12, 2016, 02:12 PM
Feb 2016

Their post-NH letter to the press downplayed both NV and SC, and talked up winning in the March primaries.

in_cog_ni_to

(41,600 posts)
61. Not one peep from the corrupt corporate owned MSM about this poll today!
Fri Feb 12, 2016, 09:49 PM
Feb 2016

They're completely ignoring it. Completely ignoring Nevada. I wonder how they're going to spin/downplay Bernie's Nevada win and a very possible SC win?

They can't ignore it. That would be a Tie in Iowa, a 23 point landslide in NH, a win in Nevada! Seems to me, she should pack up and go home. That's what they'd say if it was Bernie losing.

PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE

in_cog_ni_to

(41,600 posts)
5. There ya go. The reason for the Kitchen Sink! TIED IN IOWA, LOSS BY 23 POINT LANDSLIDE, AND A
Fri Feb 12, 2016, 01:52 PM
Feb 2016

LOSS IN NEVADA! SC Isn't looking like a firewall either! I think we have an election blowout coming.

PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE

Jarqui

(10,110 posts)
7. Washington Free Beacon is a right wing rag so take it with a big
Fri Feb 12, 2016, 01:59 PM
Feb 2016

grain of salt.

Another iffy poll of 3 weeks ago had Clinton leading 47-43 +4 over Sanders - which, if true, shows the race tightening
http://overtimepolitics.com/pollingdata/OvertimePolitics.comJan17-Jan20DemocraticCaucusPoll-Nevada.pdf

But a number of folks around don't trust overtimepolitics.com either.

Why Hillary Clinton should be worried about Nevada
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/02/12/why-hillary-clinton-should-be-worried-about-nevada/?postshare=5001455289442581&tid=ss_tw

The Clinton folks are saying it could be close and distorting Nevada's demographics (suddenly we are as white as Iowa and New Hampshire!) because they are worried about the Bernie surge. And I think they should be.
...
Hillary knew a long time ago she would need a firewall in Nevada; that's why she set up here so early. The firewall isn't breached yet, but it may be buckling soon.


Race For Nevada Too Close To Call
http://knpr.org/knpr/2016-02/race-nevada-too-close-call?utm_content=buffer23c8c&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/698191942459346944
Jon Ralston ?@RalstonReports 48 minutes ago
Jon Ralston Retweeted Matt Brooks
Would not go that far. I think the Free Beacon poll is evidence of Sanders Surge. But, ahem, it's all about turnout!


Looks like the above tends to loosely confirm Nevada has tightened up

Mufaddal

(1,021 posts)
10. That's fair
Fri Feb 12, 2016, 02:04 PM
Feb 2016

And I haven't looked over the details of the poll, if they even made them available. However, it was a decent sample size, and if the format was sound, it doesn't really matter what their political alignment is. But again: haven't seen these things, and so your concern is understandable.

I certainly wouldn't take any polls in Nevada for granted.

Jarqui

(10,110 posts)
16. Here's a link to that poll ...
Fri Feb 12, 2016, 02:12 PM
Feb 2016
http://freebeacon.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/nv-toplines.pdf

From what I've read, polling for the Nevada caucuses is very difficult and expensive - which is part of the reason why so few polls have been done

Mufaddal

(1,021 posts)
20. Thanks!
Fri Feb 12, 2016, 02:21 PM
Feb 2016

Wow, some great stuff in here:

TRUST: Regardless of whom you are supporting, which candidate do you think is the most honest and trustworthy?
Hillary Clinton 29
Bernie Sanders 53
Both equal 18

(Strange they didn't have a "Don't know/unsure" answer)

CARES: Which candidate would you say cares more about people like you?
Hillary Clinton 36
Bernie Sanders 49
Both equal 15

However, there are also some ugly push-polling kind of questions:

"While Hillary Clinton was Secretary of State, the Clinton Foundation received millions in foreign donations and did not disclose them, despite her promising President Obama that she would do so. Does this make you more or less likely to support her?" (Much less likely: 35, Somewhat less likely, 29--what's funny is that some people said it would make them "much more likely" to support her!)

"Bernie Sanders says he wants to increase taxes on corporations..." "Bernie Sanders has proposed trillions in new government spending..."

"Recently several news organizations have reported that the FBI could indict Hillary..."

Still, those questions were asked after the initial preferred candidate question, and most importantly, that question was not repeated at the end after the nasty questions. That makes me feel a bit better about the validity of the results.

Jarqui

(10,110 posts)
24. That and the above is a heck of a shift from the prior polling
Fri Feb 12, 2016, 02:38 PM
Feb 2016
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nv/nevada_democratic_presidential_caucus-5337.html

No wonder the Clinton campaign downplayed Nevada - after having previously touted it as a firewall.

If she loses the Latinos, South Carolina becomes even more important. In the wake of a loss in Nevada, the black community might revisit it's position ..

CoffeeCat

(24,411 posts)
9. HOLY..........................
Fri Feb 12, 2016, 02:00 PM
Feb 2016

OMG, no wonder we are seeing the implosions.

This explains everything.

I am shocked.

Obama went in to NV with a 26 point deficit---and a loss in NH. And still he won more delegates than Clinton.

Bernie's campaign is fueled by the momentum of an overwhelming NH win.

Sanders was behind by 20 points in NV at the beginning of November. He's gained 20 points in three months.

Latinos also broke heavily for Sanders in Iowa. That was totally unexpected.

Her campaign is sinking like the Titanic. Look over there...it's Hillary floating on a door and Bill hanging onto the side telling her that he'll never let go!

 

artislife

(9,497 posts)
15. Somehow I missed the fact that Latinos broke heavily for Sanders in Iowa.
Fri Feb 12, 2016, 02:09 PM
Feb 2016

No wonder the prevailing talking points is just Black and White out of the h camp.

I was wondering why we disappeared off the table.

CoffeeCat

(24,411 posts)
22. I have some incredible info on that from a local LULAC Iowa head.
Fri Feb 12, 2016, 02:27 PM
Feb 2016

I will post it. He told me that he thinks Latinos were instrumental, in Iowa, in helping Bernie secure that tie.



He's a Clinton supporter, btw. A Clinton precinct captain who lives in the Des Moines area who is a League of United Latin American Citizens (LULAC) leader.

 

artislife

(9,497 posts)
25. I always look forward to your posts!
Fri Feb 12, 2016, 02:43 PM
Feb 2016

Can't wait to see this.

Lots of love to you and yours, CoffeeCat!

Live and Learn

(12,769 posts)
58. We have a huge Latino population working as volunteers for Bernie's campaign in CA.
Fri Feb 12, 2016, 04:46 PM
Feb 2016

They have been from the start.

marlakay

(11,370 posts)
13. When I was there last month canvassing
Fri Feb 12, 2016, 02:05 PM
Feb 2016

it was 50/50, the problem I saw was volunteers, Hillary had a bunch of paid people with jackets with her symbol on it going door to door and Bernie had a bunch of volunteers from CA and other places not many from within the state.

The people from Nevada itself have to step it up for him. We are lucky its a short drive from bay area as a lot of young are volunteering on the weekends.

At least in the Reno area, I am thinking Vegas further away would be harder to do on a weekend, maybe from LA.

Last month many when I went to doors didn't know who Bernie was, I am hoping after last few weeks and finally in some media people are starting to know him. The doors I knocked on are not people who hang out online, pay attention, etc.

Mufaddal

(1,021 posts)
18. Thank you for canvassing
Fri Feb 12, 2016, 02:13 PM
Feb 2016

If Hillary ties again in Nevada, boy is that going to be really bad news for her campaign. She really needs a decisive win there. I believe Bernie is outspending her on ad buys there, and I'm hoping that will help acquaint people a little. But ads are no substitute for canvassing.

 

artislife

(9,497 posts)
27. This is an interesting read on the debate and Latinos
Fri Feb 12, 2016, 02:47 PM
Feb 2016

and where the gap just widened.
https://medium.com/@wwwdonohue/bernie-sanders-could-win-the-latino-vote-and-tonight-s-debate-proved-it-ef2eb55f8621#.jqzx5j74e

But this was a defining moment of the debate for anyone was watching, a moment where air opened up between Sanders and Clinton, and where the true difference in their policies became clear. Sometimes the Democratic debates can feel a little like preaching to a choir, but this was not one of those debates.
Here we have two fundamentally different worldviews at play, and soon Democratic Nevadans will choose which one they believe in. Is it the worldview that says that ethics and morality are equivalent with the law, and that exceptions cannot be made, not even after tens of thousands of children fleeing extreme violence make it to the United States of America? Is it the worldview that says “messages” should be sent to parents in Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala, messages that say “We will send your children back to a place where they fear death on a daily basis because of immigration law?”
Or is it the worldview that refuses to treat children as a bargaining chip?
We’ll see.

Mufaddal

(1,021 posts)
33. Wait, are you suggesting that Latinos may not want to vote for their abuela?
Fri Feb 12, 2016, 03:01 PM
Feb 2016

Seriously, the issue is not just her stance on immigration, or that she backed what was effectively a slave labor bill (see: https://www.splcenter.org/sites/default/files/d6_legacy_files/downloads/Close_to_Slavery.pdf), but that she has pursued a Kissingeresque policy of regime change support via coup in Latin America: http://america.aljazeera.com/opinions/2014/9/hillary-clinton-honduraslatinamericaforeignpolicy.html

It's like a return to Reagan. In fact, given Kissinger's role and relationship vis-a-vis that monster Pinochet, it's not so surprising to see Hillary picking up where Henry left off.

totodeinhere

(13,034 posts)
60. We have caucuses on the precinct level that choose delegates to a statewide convention.
Fri Feb 12, 2016, 08:00 PM
Feb 2016

It is that convention that picks the delegates. And it is possible for the candidate who got the most votes on precinct caucus day to come out of the state convention with fewer delegates than the candidate who got fewer votes. For that reason Sanders supporters in the state fear that the Clinton people might try some shenanigans in an attempt to thwart the will of the caucus voters. I would not put it past them one bit. Then later we also have a statewide primary but it's just a non binding beauty contest.

Helen Borg

(3,963 posts)
34. Holy smokes! That is great.
Fri Feb 12, 2016, 03:01 PM
Feb 2016

Not unexpected, given that there had been no polling, but great.
What is the cheating potential there for the Clinton camp?

Hydra

(14,459 posts)
63. 50/50
Sat Feb 13, 2016, 01:01 AM
Feb 2016

I see a lot of panic on Team Hill's side, even whispers that large donors are going to start looking other directions to support. Cheating costs money, so how much to waste on a losing proposition?

That said, these same people MUST derail Sanders. He is an existential threat to their entire way of life.

Mufaddal

(1,021 posts)
52. Yes!
Fri Feb 12, 2016, 03:57 PM
Feb 2016

A narrow win for Bernie would still be perceived as a large upset. Honestly, if they tied again, it would spell big trouble for Hillary.

NoMoreRepugs

(9,257 posts)
55. IMO - HRC as the 'presumptive favorite' has to win by 5-10% or more else
Fri Feb 12, 2016, 04:20 PM
Feb 2016

the PERCEPTION that she is indeed the presumptive favorite erodes.

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