About the Des Moines Register and Loris polls.

[Le Taz Hot]

The first has Bernie behind by only 7%, the second has Bernie behind by 25%. So, anyone an expert on reading poll numbers, sampling, etc., and interpreting why the hell there is an 18 percentage-point difference between the two polls?

I mean, 4 points, 8 points, I can almost get, but 15? I'm confused.

[still_one]

1. It depends on the sampling, how the question was asked, if they included Biden or not, etc.

Personally, I would not assume anything from the polls at this point in time, and just continue to work for your candidate

[Le Taz Hot]

3. Yeah, I understand all that

(400 years ago when I was in college I aced Statistics), I was just hoping we had a mathematician or statistician in the group who might be able to break down the numbers.

[HereSince1628]

9. It may also depends on if and how they bootstrapped the polling data

to make meaningful comparisons across the stratifications they wanted to talk about.

[virtualobserver]

2. Des Moines Register is the gold standard in Iowa

Loras College has only been polling for two years...started in the spring of 2014

poorly rated poll, according to this.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/05/31/1388543/-The-most-accurate-pollsters-of-2014-and-why-that-title-quite-frankly-doesn-t-mean-very-much

[jwirr]

8. That is what I thought. The Des Moines Register has

been the main paper all over Iowa for decades. There is a reason they are trusted. They are good.

As to the Loras College. I have never even heard of the college before.

[BlueStateLib]

5. One has first time caucus goers

[Le Taz Hot]

6. I JUST now caught that.

I looked closer and, of course, Hillary would have an advantage for "likely Democratic caucus attendees." I think that may be part of it.

[hootinholler]

7. That totally could explain it

Thanks.