Who Votes

[merrily]

NOTE TO HOSTS: In a literal way, this OP is not directly related to the primary election of Senator Sanders. However, from a less literal perspective, it is. For one thing, it tells us where we may want to focus giving out leaflets, campaign buttons (hopefully from the Sanders store) and our GOTV efforts and so on. For another, a lot has been said about the support of the youth vote" for Sanders, are they showing up in polls, will they or won't they vote, etc. That said, I'm going to love you just as much if you lock or not.


Who Votes

Potentially useful terms:

Millennials, aka Gen Y--Those born in a year from the early 1980s through the early 2000s (Some say 1982-2004).
The youngest generation whose members will be eligible to vote in 2016 and the largest living generation.

Gen X-- Those born in a year from 1965 through the early 1980s

Post War Baby Boomers--those born in a year from 1946 through 1964 (after this, the bracket years get fuzzier)

Let's just call everyone else, including the so-called Greatest Generation, either the oldest voters or too young to vote in 2016.

Let's start with the so-called youth vote. As Senator Sanders has pointed out many times, most people who are eligible to vote do not show up to vote. The conventional political wisdom is that the youth vote is notorious for not voting, so young voters do not really matter. However, I have posted that the conventional political wisdom is neither conventional nor wisdom. (apologies to Mike Myers).

2012 In 2012, the youth vote was decisive for Obama. Repeat: In 2012, the youth vote was decisive for Obama.

About half of all eligible people ages 18-29 voted in Tuesday’s election, roughly the same level as 2008, according to Peter Levine, the center’s director. The youth vote’s share of the electorate actually increased slightly from 18 percent to 19 percent. In total, 22 million-23 million young people voted, according to the analysis.

Levine and "Rock The Vote" President Heather Smith both said in a conference call with reporters on Wednesday that increased turnout over presidential elections in 2004, 2008 and 2012 shows high voter turnout is a “new normal” with the millennial generation, compared to less engaged voters in Generation X. In the 1990s, youth turnout was regularly less than 40 percent.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2012/11/study-youth-vote-was-decisive-083510#ixzz3rK749NfS

Moral: The "conventional political wisdom notwithstanding," campaigning and GOTV efforts in college campuses and places where college kids gather will be far from wasted. Before you go, check online for residency requirements and the like so you can answer questions. If you can't figure out how to find them or parse them, call your Secretary of State's Office or your town or city hall.

2004-2008

In the last three general elections – 2004, 2006, and 2008 — young voters have given the Democratic Party a majority of their votes, and for all three cycles they have been the party’s most supportive age group. This year, 66% of those under age 30 voted for Barack Obama making the disparity between young voters and other age groups larger than in any presidential election since exit polling began in 1972.

The article says that the youth vote was not decisive for Obama in 2008, but young voters made a difference, both with their votes and with their enthusiastic volunteer efforts.

http://www.pewresearch.org/2008/11/13/young-voters-in-the-2008-election/ (lots of info of various kinds in this article).

So, whatever the case may have been in the 1990s or earlier, there's a new sheriff in town as far as voters showing up at the polls--and especially for Democrats. This is the future of our Party and we'd better think twice before we turn them off with cronyism or shenanigans.

OK, who else shows up at the polls? Educated people and wealthy people--and we know there's a correlation between education and earnings. Great reasons for Democrat to push for making higher education more and more accessible. (The more people vote, the likelier Democrats are to be elected). http://cnnchangethelist.tumblr.com/post/31863379479/on-who-votes-and-who-doesnt

Women vote in greater numbers than men and a good percentage of older people also vote.http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/05/census-data-finds-who-votes-and-who-doesnt/ (June 2012, probably based on data gathered in 2011)


Beloveds, this is so very important. It is the first opportunity Americans have had of this kind since at least LBJ (domestically--Sanders is better on foreign policy).

Holidays are upon us and the first caucus (Iowa) is February 1, the first primary (New Hampshire) February 9 and Super Tuesday is March 1.

It's Donation O'Clock, Volunteer O'Clock and GOTV O'Clock, maximum efforts on all three, from now until at least Super Tuesday.

[Enthusiast]

1. Kicked and recommended!

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[TBF]

2. The problem is not the general -

if Bernie can beat Hillary he wins the general. He stacks up incredibly well against the repugs.

The problem is to stop Hillary in the primaries - and as you point out those are starting in February. It is hard to get folks to vote in the primary, but especially hard with young folks. This is what Hillary's people are counting on and they will use the party apparatus to push her in.

Calling and registering are key, continuing to vote those posts up on Reddit. Reddit/Instagram is the way to reach younger people. My nieces (teens - one is old enough to vote) and daughter do not pay much attention to facebook or even twitter.

[merrily]

3. Excellent points. Thank you.

[merrily]

6. Agree!

[hedda_foil]

4. Wonderful analysis, merrily. I'd add one more suggestion for the college vote.

Winter Break is the perfect time to catch the college group in their hometowns. Different states have created certain obstacles to the collegiate voting in their college towns. We need to bone up on our individual state voting rules, to make sure that the in-staters are informed about when, where and how they are eligible. And for out of state students who are home for the holidays, we can at least tell those in red state colleges to find out if they can or should vote in their college towns.

[merrily]

5. Thank you, hedda. You are always kind andhelpful.

Last edited Wed Dec 2, 2015, 04:38 PM - Edit history (1)