November 9, 2012

For the nostalgic - Mitt Romney's Greatest Hits (a truly WTF video experience)

And this numbskull garnered HOW MANY votes? Take a look at this and relish the fact that he was defeated....the alternative is truly frightening!

&feature=youtu.be

November 9, 2012

It feels different, doesn't it....

It is wonderful to be able to bask in the joy of our president's reelection - made so sweet that it was the defeat of the lies of Romney and Ryan, the smack down of the super-rich entitled spoiled brat family, and the pissed away zillions of the most odious of all, swollen pimple called Rove.

But...I am also spending just a bit of mental time wandering, no polls to check every 15 or 20 minutes, no nervous, anxious energy expended on reading how the media is going to puff up Romney, or distort Obama. This is OUR transition time, isn't it - from fighting and perhaps worrying mode to.... getting back to our "real" lives (or at least spending more time being less distracted - my wife certainly noticed me just looking a bit vacant over the last two days).

So DU can transition (it already is, of course) to our local battles, perhaps (such as, for us in NC, seeing the odious Art Pope on stage with our new "I smell something bad face" governor McCrory - wondering how we can find some decent Dem politicians that can win in NC and stem the local red tide.

Or, to put it another way....this is the let down phase. Wonder how long it will last?

But doesn't it feel great!

November 8, 2012

Read so many "why Romney lost" columns - (a Yahoo link below, for ex) - NONE stated the magic word.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/how-race-slipped-away-from-romney.html

Not one said the word. And what is it? LIES. Not a single column I read (unless it was very left-leaning, and I'm not certain on that one either) mentioned that essentially everything out of his mouth - and all of the ads that supported him and attacked president Obama - were based on flat out lies. Lies about his record, his previous speeches, our President's record. Lies.

Maybe we are all so jaded and ad-flooded that we assume that all politicians lie all the time (that false equivalence thing, so annoying)....but maybe, just maybe, enough people saw through the lies and decided that the country could not flourish at all under a serial liar.

And that is why all of Rove/other's zillions couldn't buy this election. Just maybe.

November 8, 2012

One of the most odd and tone-deaf memes I heard today about Obama's victory -

I think it was Talk of the Nation, and I am thinking it was the Pew research fellow - "the Obama campaign went after Romney early and made it about him and how disconnected he is from the average American" etc. - and that "incumbent presidents always run on their record, it is unprecedented to run on just attacking the competitor". Which of course leaves unsaid but can be extrapolated- that there is no record to run on. And - never, ever a mention of non-stop obstruction from the right.

This just follows a common theme I've heard - I heard it on Diane Rehm's show today - no one ever talks about the fact that there WERE NO LIES in Obama's ads. And that Romney's entire platform - everything he said, was lies. Throughout the entire campaign, rarely was the Romney campaign ever truly called out for their lies, or the Obama campaign for its honesty.

So the pundits today continued to play equivalence - "both sides do it", "both sides lie", "both sides have principles and are of equal value". This is just wrong - this is what the public must be fed up with (the left part), and what drives the hubris and nastiness of right wing hate radio.

Amazing that if the show was on the other foot, they would have still found a way to spin it against Obama, I am sure.

So on day 1, if the question is "did the media and pundits get the message that the electorate sent"?

The answer, sadly, from what I heard, is "NO".

November 7, 2012

this election is a HUGE mandate - for decency, for empathy, for inclusiveness -

for science and curiosity and learning, for ALL Americans, not just rich white straight Christian men, or the hypocritical deluded teabaggers, or brainwashed 24 hour Faux watchers.

Let's get rid of the filibuster, let's use the Dems new-found toughness, and support President Obama to finish all that was started - and make it even better - over the next four years.

November 6, 2012

History of how 5 election poll aggregate or betting sites moved from Thurs Nov 1 to Today

Lots of the data below - made it easy with some summaries up top. My call, by the way- election will be called 11:15 tonight EST for Obama, with an eventual total of 347 EVs.

Summaries:

Intrade - Thurs Nov 1 9 AM 67.8, today Nov 6 1:30 PM 70. In between range, 64.1-71. Obama 303 EVs, NC red, FL pink
Princeton - Thurs 8:02 AM - - Obama 308 EVs, 98.7% chance to win , today Nov 6 final update 312, 100% - has NC pink, FL too close to call
538 blog - Thurs 12:53 AM - - 300 EVs, 79% chance to win (81.4% Now Cast), today final update 313 (90.9) - has NC pink, FL pale blue
Polltracker (TPM) - Thurs 9 AM - 303 EVs, today final update 290 with VA, NC and FL too close to call
Huffpost - Thurs Nov 1 7 AM - Obama 277 EVs, today final update 277 with CO, NH, VA, NC and FL too close to call

_____________________________________________

Intrade http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743474

Thurs Nov 1
9:48 EST - 67.8%
12:20 PM - 68.2%
3 PM - 66.8
5 PM - 65.9 (this seems typical - some Romney money must be coming in)
9 PM 64.9
10 PM 66.7
11:30 PM 67.4

Friday Nov 2
Fri 9:30 AM 68.3
1:20 PM 66
4:45 PM 66.8
10 PM 67.5

Sat Nov 3
9:30 AM 67.5
1 PM 66.8
3:30 PM 66.9
5 PM 67.5
10 PM 66.5

Sun Nov 4
9 AM 64.1
noon 65.5
2:30 PM 64.8
4:45 PM 65.5
6:45 PM 64.9
9:30 PM 64.0

Monday Nov 5
9 AM 66.7
noon 66.2
3 PM 67.1
7 PM 68.5 (was in the low 70s earlier)

Tuesday Nov 6 - THE BIG DAY
8:30 71% (was in the mid 70s earlier)
1 PM 69.5

________________________________________________________________________________

Princeton Election Consortium http://election.princeton.edu/

Thurs Nov 1
8:02 AM - - Obama 308 EVs, 98.7% chance to win
noon 312 EVs, 99.1%
3 PM 316 EVs, 99.1% (Random Drift 96%)
8 PM 315 EVs, 99.0% (Random Drift 96%)
11 PM 315 EVs, 99.0% (Random Drift 96%)

Fri Nov 2
8 AM update 318 EVs, 99.2% (96%)
noon 318, 99.3
4:45 PM 319, 99.5
8 PM 319, 99.6

Sat Nov 3
9:30 am 323 EVs, 99.8%
noon 323, 99.8
3:30 PM 323, 99.8
5 PM 323, 99.8
10 PM 323, 99.8

Sun Nov 4
9 AM 319, 99.9
noon 319, 99.9
4:45 PM 318, 99.8
9:30 PM 303, 99.9

Mon Nov 5
9 AM 305 99.8
10 AM 305 99.8
noon 303, 99.9
7 PM 310 99.9

Tues Nov 6
8:30 AM 312 100% !!!!!!!
1 PM 312 100%
________________________________________________________________________________________

538 blog http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Thurs Nov 1
12:53 AM - - 300 EVs, 79% chance to win (81.4% Now Cast)
9 PM update - 303 EVs, 80.8% (304/83 Nowcast)
11:40 PM update 303.4, 80.9 (303.9, 82.9 Nowcast)

Fri Nov 2
7 PM update 303.3, 81.1; nowcast 302.8, 82.5
8:30 303.7 81.4 (nowcast 304.3 83.7)
11:30 PM 304.8, 82.7 (305, 83.9)

Sat Nov 3
12:45 AM 305.3 83.7%

Sun Nov 4
8 AM 306.9, 85.1 (now cast 307.2, 86.6)
7 PM 306.4 85.5 (307.7, 87.5)

Mon Nov 5
9 AM 307.2 (86.3) (308.4, 88)

Tues Nov 6
8:30 AM 314.6 (91.6%)
1 PM 313 (90.9)

_________________________________________________________________________________

Polltracker (TPM site) http://core.talkingpointsmemo.com/election/scoreboard

Thurs Nov 1
9 AM - 303 EVs
4 PM 285 EVs
10 PM 285

Fri Nov 2
9:30 AM 276
1:30 PM 285
4:45 PM 285
9:30 PM 285

Sat Nov 3
9:30 AM 303 EVs

Sun Nov 4
9 AM 303
noon 303
2:30 PM 303

Mon Nov 5
9 AM 303
noon 281 (CO back to tossup, as well as NC, FL, VA)
3 PM 290

Tues Nov 6
8:30 AM 290
1 PM 290
___________________________________________________________________________________

Huff post http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map?hw
Thurs Nov 1
7 AM - Obama 277 EVs
5 PM Obama 277 EVs
11 PM - 277

Fri Nov 2
9:30 AM - 259
12:30 PM - 259
2 PM 277
4:45 PM 277
5:45 PM 281
9:30 PM 281

Sat No 3
9:30 AM 277 EV
1 PM 277
3:30 PM 281
10 PM 277

Sun Nov 4
9 AM 277
noon 277
2:30 PM 277

Mon Nov 5
9 AM 277
noon 277
3 PM 277

Tues Nov 6
8:30 AM 277
1 PM 277
_________________________________________________________________________________

Everyone Vote! My prediction - Obama victory called at 11:15 PM tonight - will end up with 347 EVs

GOTV!

November 3, 2012

Predictions, anyone? First thoughts on Tues PM, EST.. Timings!

7 PM - VT poll closes - Obama 3

7:30 - OH and NC close, too close to call

8 PM - CT, DE, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, RI, DC for Obama, taking him to 79

FL, MO, NH, PA will be too close to call at 8

9 PM - NY takes Obama to 108

Between 9-10 PA goes to Obama taking him to 128

CO, MI, MN, NM, WI too close to call

10 PM - IA and NV too close to call

between 10-11, Obama picks up OH, MI, MN, NM and WI - takes Obama to 187

11 PM - CA, HI, OR, WA to Obama, taking him to 265

between 11-12, NV to Obama - puts him at 271 - then come VA, NC, FL, NH, IA, and CO - final total 347 EVs.

Let's say that the election is called at 11:15.....

Optimistic? that's my current guess - you have it here!

October 19, 2012

Do the state of the polls (in general) seem just surreal to anyone else?

I mean, you've got to be kidding me. After four years of constant right wing obstruction - yet, despite that, a real recovery with real improvements in the numbers...then, after the bizarre, someone-needs-to-run mess of the Republican circus called the primaries, the disaster of Mitt European trip (the endless MittShambles), the 47% video - the weekly gaffes, the snoozer of a convention (starring the indescribable rant at a chair), You People, dogs on a car, windows on a plane...and then a high energy Dem convention which pushed the good guys to an overwhelming forecast for victory......

******one 90 minute debate that consisted of the worst debate moderation in history and an unprecedented lie-fest with an admittedly lower energy than optimal president (though with no lies and no gaffes) - think of that - 90 minutes******

And the numbers tank something far less certain - at a rate far too rapid and deep for just that 90 minutes....

followed by an asskicking of Ryan by Biden, and then another asskicking of Mitt by the president.....

And the numbers hardly move from the "nearly tied" zone.

It just makes no sense....surreal is actually way too mild and ineffective a word for it...are there that many Americans with their heads up their ass? So easily fooled?

And this isn't being a concern troll - I still believe president Obama will be reelected...but, really, it should just not, not be this close - that is what is utterly surreal to me.

October 17, 2012

Clear evidence that, in a way, "the fix is in" - re how the debate aftermaths are formed....

Many of us here watched the debate, and saw Romney get stomped far worse in the debate than how Obama was impacted in the first debate. In that one, it was more of a laid back, presidential style vs an alpha assault on both moderator and Obama by Romney, but there were no Obama misstatements or mistakes. Yet.....look at the following spin - and, yes, sadly the spin, much of it hand wringing from the media on so-called "our side", probably impacted the polls to a degree.

Last night Romney's "performance" was far worse than what happened to Obama in the first debate - misstatements, clear errors, lies, an utter knock out. Obama's performance was nearly perfect pitch. He destroyed Romney AND looked presidential - both in terms of intellect and leadership.

And what do we wake up to today? A very, very few "Obama slight winner", slew of "the debate was a draw, and both were unlikable", and yes, a few "Romney won on substance".

Yes, the media is part of the corporate bubble - they are in it, a part of it, and very well paid by it. There are many, many factors working against Obama's reelection for a myriad of reasons. He should be smoking Romney in the polls - but the gullibility and laziness and apathy of so many Americans brings us to this media-salivating moment of a "horserace".

Horse Shit, I say. Not sure what to do about it...but some sort of fix is definitely playing out before our eyes. And the reaction to last night's debate just cemented that fact.

edited- sample of titles of articles post-debate, from RCP.

REAL CLEAR POLITICS WEDNESDAY
Candidates Tangle in Fractious Debate - Hook & O'Connor, Wall St. Journal
President Obama Turns It Around - Greg Sargent, Washington Post
Obama's Record Wins It for Mitt - Again - David Harsanyi, Human Events
Obama Bares His Teeth - Frank Bruni, New York Times
Not the Game Changer Obama Needed - Fred Barnes, The Weekly Standard
Moderator Helps Obama Rebut Romney on Libya - Julian Pecquet, The Hill
Yes, Obama Played Politics With Libya - Jonathan Tobin, Commentary
Why Crowley Was Out of Line - Mickey Kaus, The Daily Caller
Obama's Best Debate - Ever - Steve Kornacki, Salon
Improved Obama Won't Halt Mitt's Momentum - Toby Harnden, Dly Mail

Second Debate a Split Decision - USA Today
Mr. Obama Comes Back - New York Times
Romney Wins on Points - New York Post

October 10, 2012

"They" are losing me - and already lost my wife.

"They" as in politicians, the MSM - TV in general. She no longer cares and no longer watches - and I am on my way there.

We were raised to believe that the truth is important. We were raised to believe that people collectively and individually are important - all people, despite any parameter/descriptor you want to place on them.

Since 2000, it has become clear that the truth no longer matters, that people no longer matter (unless you have loads of money and can do something for them). It has become only about winning and losing, power and greed, at absolutely any cost. And it makes us sick to behold. Maybe it was before that, maybe it was always like that, and only age and experience and bumps and bruises along the way really open one's eyes.

This is what a few weeks at the beach and limited exposure to news does to you, I guess - a reevaluation of where things stand. We did watch the debate - which can't hold a candle of course to the reaction to the endless, seemingly drug-addled lies of Romney, which are now lauded everywhere. We've peered at a few newspapers and I've scanned the web for sanity. Of course, there remains sanity and hope here on DU - we share values, and we see those values increasingly under attack. But just scanning pundits and polls, the number of absolute mind-numbing suckers in this country are out of control.

But here at the Outer Banks, where one is face to face with the wonders of nature every day, where personal values can be examined and confirmed, it also becomes clear where those values are not....if I think of the state of the world in general, of how people are treating each other, how governments treat their people, the deaths and injustices due to religious fanaticism, the lust for power, the throwing of people under the bus so that the wealthy can maintain and even grow every cent. It takes the breath away. Again - has it always been this way? Now and then, yes....so once again, maybe it is just when one chooses to "go there" and think about it.

Have I lost hope for all humanity in general? There will always be pockets of hope, great deeds being done, fine people - but on balance, the trajectory of our species is not promising - and I do think that the earth is getting quite fed up with us anyway, to tell the truth.

I feel really lucky - to have the wife and daughters and pets that I do, to have stimulating hobbies and interests, to be able to become just a bit more isolated, as seems to be my own trajectory. I also feel lucky to have found DU, to be able to share my "bad days" (which this clearly must be one) with you.....

I am searching for the trigger that will reverse all of this. When Obama wins, I suspect we will see four more years of total blockage of his and Dem's ideas. What is it that will change the process, wake and shake things up and prove my fears and worries to be unfounded? And in the rare chance that Romney somehow becomes president - help us all. We will need it even more.