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In reply to the discussion: United States Assessment of the Downing of Flight MH17 and its Aftermath [View all]happyslug
(14,779 posts)The Missiles MAY have been moved, or MAY NOT have been moved, it is amazing that when someone says they have moved, no one produces the evidence showing such movement. With modern Satellite, it can be shown where the missiles where and how they were moved. Now exact route can NOT be so determined, Satellites fly over the area for just a few minutes and then continue on their orbit around the earth. On the other hand the photos are good enough to show where the missiles were when the spy Satellites flew over. No such photos have been produced for the simple reason the CIA and/or NSA do NOT have such photos for the Missiles were moved, but not out of the Ukraine.
As to these being ex-Ukrainian missiles, nothing in your story shows that to be untrue. I suspect the Ukraine Regular Army is so divided, units like this one could switch sides and no one would report it. That would provide such a missile system in the Ukraine with a crew who knew how to use it and STILL not be given to the rebels by Russia. I just do not see Putin giving the Rebels such a sophisticated missiles system for he would also have to send in a crew to operate the system (and for actual Air Cover Putin could keep the system in RUSSIA under his control and still cover most of the area in rebellion). Thus I see no advantage to Putin to give such a system to the Rebels, but I can see the Rebels obtaining such a system from the Regular Ukrainian army, along with a crew who knows how to operate it and the rebels themselves shooting down this plane (remember it was the third plane shot down in the last week, the first two were Military planes).
Sorry, I know enough about such systems to doubt Putin giving them to the Rebels, Putin does NOT need to for such missiles to provide air cover for the Rebels, such missiles can provide that cover while in Russia itself. Thus I suspect it is an Ukrainian crew that defected to the Rebels. The Ukrainian Government does NOT want to admit how bad such defections have been, and at the same time unwilling to dissolved its Regular Army units, to prevent the Russian Speakers going over to the rebels.
On paper, the Ukrainian Army is large enough to put down this rebellion in maybe a week at most. The reason it has not, implies to me that the commanders do NOT trust their troops for the commanders fear many would defect to the rebels. If the Ukrainian army was reliable, it could take these rebels cities within a week and put down this revolt. That the Ukrainian Army has not, and the present Government of the Ukraine decided it had to form a "National Guard" to supplement the Army, is further evidence of problems within the regular Ukrainian Army.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Guard_of_Ukraine
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Ground_Forces
Divisions of the Ukrainian Army:
The 13th Corp is Orange, the 8th Corp is Green and the 6th crop is blue.
To see the location of Ukrainian units, before the Rebellion go to the above site for the Ukrainian Ground forces site above
The Sixth Army Corp, roughly the same borders as what the Rebels hold, no reports that these units were repelled, thus may have all defected:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/6th_Army_Corps_(Ukraine)
The Sixth Corp did have an AA unit:
1039th Anti-Aircraft Artillery
Please note, the Soviet Union had a policy of assigning units close to where they were recruited from. When the Ukraine became independent it just changed the name of the units within the Ukraine. Other changes have occurred since, but I suspect most of the Sixth Corp was Russian Speaking (if not all Russian Speaking) and defected enmass.
The Crimea was also within the Sixth Corp area of Control. The failure of any troops coming to the Aid of the Ukrainian forces in the Crimea, implies the Sixth Crop did NOT oppose the take over (or it was so divided in loyalties that it could not move).
Just a comment that this AA missile system did exist in the Eastern Ukraine and it is possible it was a Ukrainian Missile not a Russian Missile.