2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Flat out: Was California stolen? [View all]pnwmom
(109,032 posts)They are dependent on the pollster choosing the correct precincts to use as their bellwether precincts.
They are dependent on the interviewers successfully being able to nab every nth person for a representative sample (younger people tend to be more cooperative)
The people voting on the day of the election tend to be younger; those voting early and absentee tend to be older. So Hillary's voters (who tend to be older) will be undercounted in any exit poll conducted on election day.
People who voted provisionally may or may not have their vote counted in the end, depending on whether their registration turned out to be valid.
If exit polling was as perfect as some people think, we'd never have to count up the ballots at all. But it isn't. Far from it.