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Edited on Fri Jan-16-04 08:28 PM by jchild
Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire Primary: Historic Results Since '72
Iowa caucuses did not become important until 1968, when the nation was torn apart by the Viet Nam War and because this would be the first election after Civil Rights Acts 1964/65--both of these events were divisive in the Democratic Party so to remedy this, caucuses became more inclusive; they became more open and thus more relevant. Locations were announced weeks in advance and were better publicized so that a greater number of Iowans could participate.
The 1972 caucus was the first "big" Iowa caucus. (Thus, I will begin looking at 1972 results.) South Dakota Senator George McGovern's campaign manager Gary Hart exploited the caucus to garner media attention for his boss, so he campaigned heavily in Iowa. McGovern didn't win the caucus, finishing a suprisingly close second to Edmund Muskie. However, McGovern DID go on to win the Democratic nomination.
The New Hampshire primary, the first in the nation each election year, historically has elected the party nominee-- well, at least until Tsongas bested Clinton in 1992. Until then, for 50 years New Hampshire picked party nominees; that's why New Hampshire primaries are so important to contenders and watchers.
So who won in Iowa, New Hampshire, and then who went on to capture the Democratic Party nomination? Let's look:
1972: Iowa: Muskie New Hampshire: Muskie Democratic presidential nomination: McGovern General: Nixon
1976: Iowa: Carter New Hampshire: Carter Democratic presidential nomination: Carter General: Carter
1980: Iowa: Incumbent President Carter (challenged by Ted Kennedy) New Hampshire: Carter Democratic presidential nomination: Carter General: Reagan
1984: Iowa: Mondale (Where's the Beef? LOL!) New Hampshire: Hart Democratic Presidential nomination: Mondale General: Reagan
1988: Iowa: Gephardt (Simon 2nd, Dukakis 3rd; Monkey Business) New Hampshire: Dukakis Democratic Presidential nomination: Dukakis General: Bush I
1992: Iowa: Iowa Sen. Harkin (other candidates bypass Iowa caucus, focus on NH) New Hampshire: Tsongas (First time NH winner did not get nomination; Clinton 2nd) Democratic Presidential nomination: Clinton ("who?" they asked :-) ) General: Clinton (that's who :-) )
1996: Iowa: Incumbent President Clinton (unopposed Dem. candidate) New Hampshire: Clinton Democratic Presidential nomination: Clinton General: Clinton
2000: Iowa: Gore New Hampshire: Gore Democratic Presidential nomination: Gore General: Gore (but Bush selected)
2004: It's anybody's game.
It is necessary to pay attention to the circumstances of each caucus and primary if we want to look to history as a guide. Iowa is not irrelevant; New Hampshire is VERY relevant. If we are going to say things like, "Iowa isn't important, only two times has the winner won in the general," I think we need to look at which winners went on to win the nomination also. Carter, Mondale, Clinton, and Gore. (No one could have bested Harkin in 1992--no one tried). New Hampshire's record is even better at picking winners.
Feel free to contribute comments and recollections about these historic results, as well as speculations as to whether you think 2004 will resemble previous years. :-)
Edited: atrocious grammar
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