Oh dear God, could OR-1st turn red? (cross-posted to GD)

[Rabblevox]

I will admit, I have been somewhat smug living in OR-1st. (Portland west of the river, and surrounding areas) It has traditionally been one of the "bluest" districts in the country. We've got an openly gay mayor (too bad he's not a competent mayor, but I digress), and I can't remember the last time a republican was on the city council. Our elections tend to be pissing matches over who is "cleanest" "greenest" and most "pro-union".

(N.B. that doesn't mean our pols are necessarily smarter than yours, but they are retarded Dems instead of retarded Repugs, which DOES make a difference)

Now we must replace David Wu. I have never liked Wu. I've voted against him in the last 5 primaries. He has always been a toad and a hack who kept his seat because he voted the way we wanted him too.

Up against him we have the two Brads (Avakeian and Witt) both are completely uninspiring. We'll possibly also have state Sen. Susan Bonamici (also uninspiring). Elizabeth Furse was mentioned as a possible (which would excite me) but my read is that she is happy to be out of congress. Steve Novick would be a dream candidate, but it's only a dream. He's not moving into the district. He's not budging on this race, and will probably run for congress in his own district next year.

That's the blue side. Excuse me while I yawn.

On the red side, Rob Cornilles: He's smart, telegenic, wealthy, and pulled 46% against a 5-term incumbent in his first run in a "Solid blue" district. He's also as "moderate" as it's possible for a rethuglican to be these days. (He's actually pretty good about womens rights, gay rights, and immigration).

He ran a smart campaign last time, has even more money at his disposal, and this special election has gripped the attention of the RNC.

We also recently went through re-districting, OR-1st has lost a bit of it's urban base, and the prevailing wisdom is that it has shifted a few points more conservative.

Please don't mistake me, I'm not, not NOT endorsing him. I'd prefer a blue turd over a red stud any day.

But Christ Jesus am I tired of swallowing turds.

[LWolf]

1. I sure as hell hope you can keep it blue,

because I don't think there's a chance in hell that my district won't re-elect Greg Walden.

[Rabblevox]

2. I apologize for my cousin...

Yes, Greg Walden is a relative. And yes, I think he's a lock in the 2nd. I am truly, deeply sorry that I share DNA with that ass-hat. With the exception of Greg, ALL of my family and friends are somewhere between deep blue and traditional blue. My grandpa (who would be Greg's Uncle) was a union organizer in the 30's and 40's, (when that was a VERY dangerous job). Some of my earliest memories are from being on the picket lines with him in the 60's.

When he died, he made it a point that Greg's branch of the family was not invited to the funeral or memorial service.

[LWolf]

8. No need to apologize, lol.

You didn't make him what he is, politically or anything else.

With no hope this side of the mountains, though, I don't want to see any red gains on your side.

[cascadiance]

3. Two of these candidates are at an ice cream social this Sunday...

So, perhaps there's a place to start getting more definitive answers from them on the issues we care about. They have to expect that people will be asking them then! Costs $10, but perhaps it might be worth it with a bit of ice cream to boot.

http://www.washcodems.org/OLCV_Ice_Cream_2011

[Rabblevox]

4. Nah...wannabes asking me to pay for ice cream? sorry, they can all suck it. /nt

[Rabblevox]

5. more from a failed edit...

...more professionally, they can primary it. One of them needs to bring it to me, and convince me that she or he will be a blue warrior. That's what we need, and so far, I'm not seeing even a hint. Avakian, Witt, Bonamici, all look like also-rans. They would have been elected class treasurer or hall monitor.

I really really hate to say this, but I really think the 1st could go red unless Susan and the Brad's (damn, not a bad band name), really bring it. You'd better try to electrify me, and be able to back it up, because business as usual is not working, and the republicans are not the only ones to blame.

I'm going to float a name. Sam Adams. Smart, telegenic, liberal, 1st openly gay mayor of a major US city. Not going to run for mayor again. (for which I'm grateful, he's a crappy mayor but might be a great congressman)

Sam Adams for Congress?

(full disclosure:) I don't know Sam, I've never volunteered for him, and I think he's an incompetent mayor. I've shaken his hand, and testified against him in city hall.I have a hunch that he might be a much better congressman. He's smart and pays attention and has no recent scandals. (and survived his older ones)

Think about it, Portlanders...Mayor Sam has proven to be incompetent at big city management. No blame, you are literally talking 1 in a million who would be good at running a broke-ass city.

[cascadiance]

6. I wonder if they modeled Kyle McLachlan's mayor character in Portlandia after Sam?

Don't really know Sam that much, but McLachlan's mayor is a load of a character that loves to be diverted to other meaningless things.

Also don't know if we want that kind of person in congress though... Certainly David Wu will set the tone of the race not to accept anyone with any questionable personal relationship background, which I believe that Sam has had at least questions about in the past too. Personally I don't want the right wing hit squads just to focus on that with Sam, and negate anything constructive he might try to do.

As someone who had to survive after a heavy effort to keep Republican Brian Bilbray from winning a special election to replace Duke Cunningham, I'd really like to at least keep a Democrat in this seat. And from the stories I heard about Bilbray about his times serving as a life guard in San Diego that are hard to substantiate, he's probably had a lot more "baggage" than just about any of the Democrats that got in trouble that got them out of office. But of course the right wing hacks don't want to have anything to do with outing Rethugs like him.

We need to really get someone lined up.

Wouldn't you know that I just lost my phone service (along with internet service) today and tomorrow (when I was supposed to have a phone interview). I'm writing this note in now at Starbucks before they kick us out shortly.

[Rabblevox]

7. I don't own a TV anymore, so not sure about the Kyle Mclachlan ref...

(but he was beyond brilliant in Blue Velvet and Twin Peaks) He does kinda look like Sam, though. And I'm not really trying to pimp Sam, but who? Novick won't, Furse won't, and if you tell me you are excited by Avakian, Witt, or Bonamici, I would have to call dim, at best.

Please, tell me there is a candidate for the 1st that actually inspires you! I'll listen!

[classof56]

9. Sadly, I live in your relative Greg's district and like LWolf, I'm sure it will never turn blue

At least not here in Deschutes County. I'll be watching the First District election as things evolve. I'm inclined to lean toward Avakian, but since I can't vote for any of the candidates, I'll just keep my fingers crossed your district doesn't go all red on us. Hard to believe that could happen in Portland Metro area, but ya never know.

If you get the chance, check out the Portlandia episodes with Kyle McLachlan playing your mayor. In one of them, he was "outed" for playing in a Reggae band. Very funny! Sam Adams did a walk-on in those shows as one of the mayor's staff members. Also very funny, but I do like me some Portlandia. Glad it's coming back for a new season!

Keep looking up and I'll work on keeping the faith, in spite of Walden. I thought it amusing that he stated awhile back there's no foreclosure problems in his district. Made me know he hasn't strolled down any Redmond streets lately!

Tired Old Cynic

[0rganism]

10. I have to admit it looks rather bleak right now

The Democratic candidates aren't really getting "out there", and Cornilles will have loads of money to play with.

The upside: Washington County Democrats are a top-notch organization, and we could all do a lot worse than volunteering to help them in the coming months.
http://www.washcodems.org

[demguy72340]

11. +1