Who's your personal political bellwether?

[Strawman]

Mine is my dad. My dad's not a really political guy. He usually votes Democratic, but is very much in the center. When we discuss politics his opinion always has always kind served as a bellwether to me about how most people feel about a particular politician or on an issue.

Anyway, he works with some loud bullying Bushbots who engaged him in a political conversation at work last week. He basically said he didn't understand how anyone who wasn't completely brainwashed could possibly like Bush. When the Bushbot responded with a bullying tirade, my dad calmly came back with "uhh bottom line is, the guy's a friggin' moron" which drew comments of approval from several co-workers who piped in from behind their cubes, causing the Bushbot to storm off in a huff.

To me that's a good sign of a "tidal wave" at the federal level. I know the poll numbers have suggested we have a shot at reclaiming both houses, but for some reason anecdotes like that make me really believe it in my gut.

At the state level (here in MI), I'm a little scared. Dad thinks Granholm's in trouble and frequently asks, "what has she done anyway?" I make the argument that she is faced with an uncooperative legislature and bad economic circumstances that reflect structural (and very difficult) problems which have been exacerbated by Bush. I'm sure he will vote for Granholm, but I can't shake his solid pessimism about her chances, which scares me.

So I'm curious, who is your political bellwether and what are they telling you?

[Warpy]

1. Since my family is all gone and my friends scattered

I rely on overheard conversations. I live near an air base, which means a lot of those conversations are among military personnel.

The most disheartening thing I hear is that GOPs would rather cut off their arms than vote for a Democrat, even though they know full well their party has been taken over by lunatics and thieves. It seems team identification is everything and trumps common sense, facts, and the love of one's country.

The "moderate swing voter" is a fiction. The party needs to drop the quest for them and concentrate on mending fences with its own working class base. Increasing our numbers is what needs to be done. We can't do anything about theirs.

[SharonRB]

2. I don't really have one, but

I agree with you about our situation here in Michigan. I'm really worried about Granholm's re-election. We have a lot of hard work ahead of us. Go check out IdaBriggs post in the Michigan forum. The day she had Saturday doesn't bode well.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=159x6517

[Strawman]

4. There was an article in the Free Press about this over the weekend

About Granholm trying to calm her supporters and starting to respond to Devos' ads.

http://freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060625/NEWS06/606250603/1008

I've seen Ida's post and commented on it. I agree with her. I'm worried about Devos connecting with enough of that swing voter male demographic in Macomb and Oakland counties to keep it close there. I've seen most of his ads during big sporting events, so that seems like his target. And that's probably all he needs to win. He will lose Detroit, and he will win West Michigan and probably outstate.

I was somewhat heartened to see a Granholm ad this Sunday evening during 60 Minutes. Maybe she can effectively target seniors, who are more likely to actually vote especially in an off-year election.

Bottom line is I gotta make a donation to Granholm when my next paycheck comes and everyone needs to do the same if we don't want this election to be literally bought by the Amway clan. My extra time is even more scarce (full time job, plus grad school) than my disposable income (which is also very scarce) right now, but I have to do something. So maybe a little bit of panic early on is not a bad thing if it motivates others to do the same. I'm a little hesitant to give my money to a campaign whose strategic calculation to wait until closer to the election to start spending seems wrong to me, but hey, what else can I do?

And I'd like to see the heavy hitters in the party commit more to saving Granholm's seat and less to saving Joementum from another Democratic primary candidate. Screw him. Come to MI and raise money for a real Democrat who is really in trouble.

[SharonRB]

5. I've seen a few of her ads.

I hope they resonate with people. I've given to Nancy Skinner (I'm volunteering on her campaign) and yesterday I went to a Bernie Sanders event hosted by Conyers and gave to him. I don't have a lot of spare cash, but I will most likely give something to the Gov and try to help out if I have any spare time. One campaign may be all I have time for, though.

Next Wednesday, there's a grand opening for the 12th District coordinated campaign headquarters from 6-8 p.m. I'll probably go and see what I may be able to do (I'm actually in the 12th, not in the 9th, where Nancy is running). It's going to be at 8322 E. 12 Mile, across from Tech Plaza, in Warren.

Contact [e-mail] for info.

[Breeze54]

3. I guess I'd have to say

b*-CO$ himself! If he (they're - GOP) is for it?

A 'bell' goes off in my head! An alarm bell! A LOUD one!

My parents have both passed away now so I can't use them, for obvious reasons! ;)
But I never really did anyway. I just follow the issues and make up my own mind.
If I think it smells? I'm usually right... but I do try to read all pov about the issues.
On rare occasions, I've discussed the issues with my oldest sister. (She's a registered Independant!)