Reply #19: That is sort of in the neighborhood of what I was wondering about.

[bemildred]

Uribe's support is in the cities, almost restricted to Bogota.
He's not politically in a position to pursue war with Chavez
without outside support, and Uncle Sugar is also badly placed to
provide the support that Alvaro would need, being busy in Iraq
and deep in debt already. Chavez OTOH is in a politically and
economically strong and rising situation, there is every reason
to think he could sustain a war far longer than Uribe unless the
US intervened massively, and Chavez would have many hidden cards
to play. If Alvaro commits forces to combat in Venezuela, what is
to stop FARC from attacking back home, for example? And Chavez
has friends in China, Iran, Russia. I think he's calling their
bluff here.