Guardian Utd (Thursday): Polls say Labour will win historic third term

[Jack Rabbit]

From the Guardian Unliomited (UK)
Dated Thursday May 5 (Election Day in Britain)

Polls say Labour will win historic third term
Brown for PM inside two years, say majority
By Alan Travis and Patrick Wintour

Labour is heading for a historic third-term victory over the Conservatives with a possible three-figure majority, according to the results of the Guardian/ICM eve-of-election survey.

The final poll, partly based on interviews completed last night, gives Labour a 38% share of the vote and the Conservatives 32% - slightly down on their 2001 performance. The Liberal Democrats look set to secure 22% of the popular vote, their highest share since the 1983 heyday of the SDP/Liberal Alliance.

A national uniform swing would suggest these figures would translate into a Labour majority of more than 130, but it is expected the much closer contest being fought in the marginals could reduce Tony Blair's majority to between 90 and 110, or lower. This would still be close to matching Margaret Thatcher's 1987 record third-term majority of 100 . . . .

The special ICM poll also reveals that more than half of all voters, 59%, and a similar number of Labour voters, do not want Mr Blair to serve a full term. Instead, they say he should step down within two years to make way for Gordon Brown. Only 14% of Labour voters say he should go immediately.

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