Reply #49: NHWC - Update.... Maybe Cat 4 on landfall

[althecat]

000
WTNT45 KNHC 192248
TCDAT5
HURRICANE EMILY SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2005

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND
FORECAST INTENSITY OF EMILY. MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB
FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WERE 122 KT AT 2126Z...
SUPPORTING THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KT. THE WINDS HAVE NOW
CAUGHT UP TO THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE THAT WAS ALREADY TYPICAL
OF AT LEAST A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. ADDITIONALLY... THE WIND
RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHEAST BASED ON THE
LATEST AIRCRAFT DATA. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO REFLECT RECENT TRENDS... AND EMILY COULD REACH
CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY BEFORE LANDFALL. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS
NOT BEEN CHANGED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/2300Z 24.5N 96.0W 110 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 24.6N 97.2W 120 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 24.7N 99.3W 40 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
36HR VT 21/0600Z 24.7N 101.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
48HR VT 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED


$$