Reply #48: Iranian shore defenses

[NBachers]

OK, here's a scenario that's on the brink of tomorrow's headlines:

Bush launches "surgical strikes with 'limited' collateral damage" on so-called Iranian military targets. He uses the "protect our troops" mantra, but extends the strikes to Iranian nuclear research facilities. The fact that these facilities are scattered underground in populated areas means "tough shit Ahab."

American press dutifully reports minimal civilian casualties. The truth is, civilian casualties are widespread and numerous.

Iran shuts off its supply of oil to the world. Iran attacks American warships in the Persian Gulf with Silkworm Missiles and Russian SSN-22 Sunburn missiles. Iran also destroys warships and supertankers in the Straits of Hormuz, which is only 50 km wide at its narrowest point. This effectively shuts down the Straits of Hormuz; no oil can get out; our remaining military fleet is trapped. Bush now has his excuse to go whole hawg on them dirty moslems.

With a significant percentage of the worlds' oil supply shut off, and America reeling in shock from the loss of the fleet Bush had positioned in the Persian Gulf, we decide it's time to up the ante. The PNAC'ers are giddy with glee. Why do you think those warships were positioned like sitting ducks out there? There's no choice but to let loose the nukes. We didn't wanna do it, we didn't wanna do it . . . but we have no choice now. Amurka Demands Blood! The Senate and House of Representatives have a very public media prayer meeting on the steps of the Capitol and sing "Battle Hymn of the Republic."

In Pakistan, already destabilized with Musharraf barely hanging on, a widespread rebellion occurs; Musharraf is deposed, and the hardline fundamentalists now in power donate their existing nukes to Iran.

It can all happen by next Friday . . . or Tuesday . . . or whenever