If U.S. Leaves Vacuum in Iraq, Iran’s Deep Influence May Not Fill It

[Eugene]

Source: New York Times

If U.S. Leaves Vacuum in Iraq, Iran’s Deep Influence May Not Fill It

By TIM ARANGO
Published: October 8, 2011

NAJAF, Iraq — As the United States draws down its forces in Iraq, fears abound that Iran will simply move into the vacuum and extend its already substantial political influence more deeply through the soft powers of culture and commerce. But here, in this region that is a center of Shiite Islam, some officials say that Iran wore out its welcome long ago.

Surely, Iran has emerged empowered in Iraq over the last eight years, and it has a sympathetic Shiite-dominated government to show for it, as well as close ties to the anti-American cleric Moktada al-Sadr. But for what so far are rather obscure reasons — perhaps the struggling Iranian economy and mistrust toward Iranians that has been nurtured for centuries — it has been unable to extend its reach.

-snip-

A standard narrative has it that the Iraq war opened up a chessboard for the United States and Iran to tussle for power. One of the enduring outcomes has been an emboldened Iran that is politically close to Iraq’s leaders, many of whom escaped to Iran during Saddam Hussein’s government, and that is a large trading partner.

Yet the story is more nuanced, particularly in the Shiite-dominated south that became politically empowered after the American invasion upended Sunni rule. It has been other countries — most powerfully Turkey, but also China, Lebanon and Kuwait — that have cemented influence through economic ties.

-snip-

Read more: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/09/world/middleeast/if-united-states-leaves-vacuum-in-iraq-disliked-iran-may-not-fill-it.html