Bush will gain NADA from "capturing" Osama. Here's why...

[TruthIsAll]

He's going down. The capture of OBL will do nothing for him. Its just more Conventional Wisdom Bushit. The people know it is all a political ploy. OBL will get him 2 points, if that. And it will be temporary.

Keep it simple. Bush has seen his poll numbers rise only three times in 36 months: 9/11 (+33), Iraq war (+12), Saddam capture (+4). The Bush Bump for each manufactured event decreased by a factor of 2/3.
His numbers declined in each of the other 33 months.

Currently, Bush approval is exactly 50% based on an average of the following 8 polls: 1=Newsweek 2=Fox 3=CNN 4=Pew 5=Harris 6=CBS 7=ABC 8=Time

Expect him to drop to the low forties.

Date....1...2...3...4...5...6...7...8........ Avg...4moMA
02/01 52 55 57 53 na 53 55 52 ……....53.86
03/01 55 56 63 56 56 53 58 55 ……....56.50
04/01 57 63 59 53 49 60 63 na ……....57.71 56.02
05/01 57 59 53 50 59 56 55 52 ……….. 55.13 55.80
06/01 na 59 55 51 50 57 na na ……….. 54.40 55.93
07/01 na 56 52 52 56 na 59 55 ……….. 55.00 55.56
08/01 na 55 55 50 52 53 55 na ……….. 53.33 54.46
09/01 86 81 51 80 na 50 86 84 ……….. 74.00 59.18
10/01 84 80 87 84 88 89 92 89 ……….. 86.63 67.24 9/11 +33
11/01 85 84 87 84 86 87 89 87 ……….. 86.13 75.02
12/01 82 86 86 na 82 85 89 82 ……….. 84.57 82.83
01/02 na 83 84 80 79 86 86 77 ……….. 82.14 84.87
02/02 83 81 82 78 79 84 83 na ……….. 81.43 83.57
03/02 74 80 81 na 77 82 82 75 ……….. 78.71 81.71
04/02 71 79 76 74 75 78 79 75 ……….. 75.88 79.54
05/02 73 72 77 na 74 76 78 72 ……….. 74.57 77.65
06/02 70 74 70 70 70 71 77 70 ……….. 71.50 75.17
07/02 68 70 76 67 62 70 72 70 ……….. 69.38 72.83
08/02 61 69 68 60 63 65 69 na ……….. 65.00 70.11
09/02 70 66 66 63 68 66 69 65 ……….. 66.63 68.13
10/02 61 65 67 na 64 66 67 61 ……….. 64.43 66.36
11/02 60 68 63 61 65 63 67 64 ……….. 63.88 64.98
12/02 na 65 64 61 64 61 66 55 ……….. 62.29 64.30
01/03 56 63 63 58 na 65 59 53 ……….. 59.57 62.54
02/03 61 57 61 54 52 59 64 62 ……….. 58.75 61.12
03/03 53 60 57 55 na 56 62 54 ……….. 56.71 59.33
04/03 71 71 70 67 70 68 71 62 ……….. 68.75 60.95 Shock and Awe +12
05/03 65 65 69 65 na 67 71 63 ……….. 66.43 62.66
06/03 61 66 64 60 61 67 68 na ……….. 63.86 63.94
07/03 55 60 62 58 na 66 59 55 ……….. 59.29 64.58
08/03 53 59 60 56 57 60 59 na ……….. 57.71 61.82
09/03 52 58 52 55 na 55 56 52 ……….. 54.29 58.79
10/03 51 52 55 50 59 52 54 na ……….. 53.29 56.14
11/03 52 52 54 50 na 54 56 52 ……….. 52.86 54.54
12/03 51 52 55 58 48 49 53 54 ……….. 52.50 53.23
01/04 54 58 60 56 50 60 58 54 ……….. 56.25 53.72 Saddam Capture +4
02/04 48 48 51 48 51 50 50 54 ……….. 50.00 52.90