A little perspective on the convention polls.

[59millionmorons]

After looking at this data I am comfortable saying Kerry is up by at- least 5 points. People tend to see one poll and react to it. Take a look at the last few polls and you will feel better. These polls and Frank Luntz's focus group makes the Gallup results unlikely.

RCP Average 7/26 - 7/31 44.0% 49.7% (Kerry +5.7)

Rasmussen (1,500 LV) 7/29-7/31 45% 49% Kerry +4
Newsweek (1,010 RV) 7/29-7/30 44% 52% Kerry +8
Zogby (1,001 LV) 7/26-7/29 43% 48% Kerry +5
CNN/USA (LV 718) 7/31-8/01 50%-47% Bush +3
CNN/USA (RV 913) 7/31-8/01 50%-47% Kerry +3

As another barometer, consider Frank Luntz, the Republican pollster who helped plot Newt Gingrich's conservative congressional takeover. Luntz ran a focus group Thursday night, talking to 20 swing voters in the swing state of Ohio, and was stunned by their remarks. They had just watched Kerry's speech, and loved it - to the point where four Bush-leaning voters announced they were switching to Kerry.

"It was one of the strongest positive reactions I've ever seen in a focus group," said Luntz. "Kerry didn't lose anybody. Most importantly, he was able to convince that he is presidential, that he would be tough yet open-minded. They now see him as a credible commander-in-chief."


http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/news/front/9290785.htm?ERIGHTS=-443913062577729525philly::tkramer [e-mail]&KRD_RM=8oqtvuoswxuprurrsqpooooooo|Mike|Y