Electability issue: Compare Gore '00 with Dean '03

[CMT]

Howard Dean's opponents often say that Dean cannot win the 2004 election against GW Bush, but at times like this it is probably good to look back at how the winner of the popular vote in 2000, Al Gore was doing vs. Bush.

August 11,2000 the Gallup poll on the eve of the Democratic convention gives Bush a 14-point lead (53-39) over Gore.
http://www.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/08/11/cnn.poll/index.html

This poll also states that Bush had a 60% favorability rating while Gore's was under 50%.

On 10/27/00 Gallup released a poll just ten days before the election giving Bush a 49-43 lead with a CNN/USA Today tracking poll giving Bush a 13-point (52-39) lead:
http://www.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/10/27/cnntime.poll/index.html

As early as 3/5/99 Bush held a 13-point lead over Gore 52-41
http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/stories/1999/03/05/president.2000/poll/index.html

Now here is how Gore did in some key Democratic states in 1999, and how Dean is doing in them right now in 2003 (based on Quinnipiac Surveys)

New Jersey (11/03) Bush leads Dean 48-45 percent (only dem who beats Bush currently is Lieberman and by only 1-point).

New Jersey (9/99) Bush leads Gore 48-40 percent.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x3291.xml#NJPRES00
We all know that Gore won NJ handily in 11/00.

New York (11/03) Dean leads Bush 48-44.
New York (11/99) Gore leads Bush 47-43.
Gore won NY by 2 million votes in 11/00.

Connecticut (10/03) Bush edges Dean 47-45 percent
Connecticut (10/99) Bush leads Gore 52-36 percent.
Gore easily won Connecticut in 11/00
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x3290.xml#CTPRES00

My point is these early horse race polls pitting any of our candidates against Bush don't mean diddly. Heck, even late polls just days before the election don't always mean that is how the outcome will be (look at the tracking poll from Oct 27 2000 which had Gore behind Bush by 13-points only to have Gore beat Bush by over 500,000 votes on election day). Also, Gore was a much better known person than Howard Dean is today.

In the end it will come down to who runs a strong campaign and articulates his vision to the American people and who can motivate their base to turnout in strong numbers (Gore did well because he got a strong turnout among the Democratic base such as union members and African-Americans).