For all the policy wonks: 131 years to replace gasoline?

[GliderGuider]

According to two researchers from The Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at University of California, Davis, it will take 131 years for current market forces to complete the transition away from oil.:

Future Sustainability Forecasting by Exchange Markets: Basic Theory and an Application

Setting sustainability targets and evaluating systems progress are of great importance nowadays due to threats to the human society, to economic development and to ecosystems, posed by unsustainable human activities. This research establishes a probabilistic theoretical approach based on market expectations reflected in prices of publicly traded securities to estimate the time horizon until the appearance of new technologies related to replacement of nonrenewable resources, for example, crude oil and oil products.

To assess time T when technological innovations are likely to appear, we apply advanced pricing equations, based on a stochastic discount factor to those traded securities whose future cash flows critically depend on appearance of such innovations. In a simple approximation of the proposed approach applied to replacement of crude oil and oil products, we obtain T ≈ (P0oil/C0)·ln (Δ·P0oil/P0alt), where P0oil and P0alt are the current aggregate market capitalizations of oil and alternative-energy companies, C0 is the annual aggregate dividends that oil companies pay to their shareholders at the present, and Δ is the fraction of the oil (oil products) replaced at time T. This formula gives T ≈ 131 years for replacement of gasoline and diesel.

The proposed market-expectations approach may allow policymakers to effectively develop policies and plan for long-term changes.

of course, they're busily thinking like economists, and we should therefore understand that such conclusions have no foundation in the world of biophysical reality.