Reply #95: The year is 2030, the time period 20 yrs. The GHG reductions for transportation: 16.4% - 26.7% EPRI

[JohnWxy]

For about a two years I have been saying electric cars will may achieve a 20% to 30% GHG reduction in 20 years. THe Electric Power REsearch Institute study which teh "Pundit" referenced corroborates what I have been saying.

IT DOES NOT CONTRADICT WHAT I HAVE BEEN SAYING AS THE "PUNDIT" CLAIMED IN THIS THREAD. I have never been opposed to developing electric cars. I have been for realistic evaluation of the technology to see what it can accomplish and WHEN IT CAN ACCOMPLISH IT. I have also said that we will need to use any and all techniques and technologies we can muster to gain more GHG reductions much sooner than in 20 yrs. I have referred to James Hansen and other climate scientists who have said we have perhaps 4 or 5 more years (from 2009) to start gaining some more significant GHG reductions than we have achieved so far or we will not be able to prevent catastrophic Global Warming.

If electric cars turn out to go down in price faster than expected (it's very hard to estimate this anyway, so nobody is SURE of their estimates) and the numbers on the road goes up faster than I (or anybody else ) anticipates, nobody would be happier than I. But even if the sales growth is very strong, it will still take a couple of decades to get enough of them on the road to start making significant reductions to GHGs). That's why we need to do more now, or what is achieved later will not matter.

READERS should note that it is my position that ethanol along with every other technique and technology available to us must be employed without anymore delay to preclude unrestrained Global Warming. "Pundit" in trying to present himself as some kind of "great thinker" attacks that position, with impotent rage and personal put-downs and ample use of disinformation, despite evidence which he himself has provided (e.g. the EPRI study) which contradicts his vacuous belief that electric cars, by themselves, will save the Earth.


Here is what the Electric Power Research Institute study results show:

16.4% to 26.7% GHG reductions from PHEVs by 2030 - Electric Power Research Institiute. .

THE RANGE AVERAGES OUT TO: 21.5% THIS USES THE EPRI ESTIMATE OF 41% PHEV PENETREATION IN 2030 along with EPRI's projection of approximately a 41% PHEV market penetration (see page 43 of EPRI report).


THAT'S FROM http://mydocs.epri.com/docs/public/000000000001015325.pdf#page=12 (please be patient this is 3 megabyte pdf file and it does take time to download).

The following figure compares GHG emissions of model year 2050 conventional and hybrid
vehicles to the three PHEV types (10, 20 and 40 miles of electric range) in each of the three
electric sector scenarios (High CO2, Medium CO2, and Low CO2 Intensity).


PHEVs have lower GHG emissions in all nine cases than either the conventional or the hybrid
vehicles, ranging from a 40% to 65% improvement over the conventional vehicle to a 7% to
46% improvement over the hybrid electric vehicle.

chart they are referring to above

The 41% figure for PHEV market penetration for 2030 can be found on page 4-9 of the EPRI report (just clik here).