Reply #10: Additional comments by authors

[kristopher]

"We acknowledge that some of the difference between the estimates for the time until oil replacement and the time until oil depletion could be reduced in response to changes over time. That is, as fossil fuel resources diminish, we would expect both market and individual behavior to change. We would expect that new reserves of conventional and unconventional oil may become available for exploration due to geological exploration and advances in oil extraction techniques or that extraction from less feasible oil fields becomes more economically attractive. We would also expect that oil consumption would decrease due to energy-saving measures and/or due to responsiveness of demand to higher oil prices. All of these factors would change our predicted outcome.

—Malyshkina and Niemeier


I didn't look at the paper, but there doesn't seem to be anything new here except the model. The example they've presented is a basic linear description of the situation as it currently exists with no assumptions about price increases etc factored in. The model is apparently able to allow policymakers to test the various options to determine the effect more accurately and easily than is currently possible. For example if the price of petroleum were to rise to $200/barrel by 2013 the output of the model would be dramatically different.
I'd like to know how accurately it predicts anticipatory behavior by investors. - K