Reply #2: An interesting analysis by 'Tamino' to try to remove the el Nino, solar, volcanic influences

[muriel_volestrangler]

on the global temperature numbers.

Just as before, we’ll use MEI (multivariate el Nino index) to characterize el Nino, and the volcanic forcing data from Ammann et al. (2003) to characterize volcanic influence. Also as before, we’ll allow for an annual cycle in the data (a residual annual cycle) by including a 2nd-order Fourier fit.

We’ll characterize solar fluctuation by the international sunspot numbers.

http://tamino.wordpress.com/2011/01/20/how-fast-is-earth-warming/

http://tamino.wordpress.com/2011/01/21/phil-jones-was-wrong/

Note this is statistics, not climate science; it takes data for el Nino, volcanic and solar activity, and tries to find subsequent variations in global temperatures that appear to correlate with those, and then removes those apparent influences from the global figures. And you end up with a temperature rise of about 1.7 degrees celsius per century, and what's more, it's statistically significant over the past 10 years (hence the title of the second blog post). And that gives, for example, a peak in temperature early in 2010, higher than anything before (the highest before that was in early 2007).